Transcript United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

The political geography of climate
change
KGA171 The Global Geography of Change
Presented by Associate Professor Elaine Stratford
Semester 1
Part 1
LOOKING BACK, LOOKING
FORWARD
Revising Lecture 4.3
1. What is the greenhouse effect? How
does this effect differ from that called
the enhanced greenhouse effect?
2. Define ‘global warming potential’.
3. With reference to carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide, name the
main anthropogenic sources for each
and give their global warming potential.
4. What is ozone and how does it work in
the atmosphere?
5. Why was the depletion of ozone of
such concern in the last decades of the
twentieth century and what actions
were taken to address the problem?
6. How is land use linked to climate
change? Refer to modernization
processes as part of your answer.
7. What is an urban heat island?
8. How do animal husbandry, forestry and
energy production affect climate?
9. Name several effects on the oceans
and climate of melting ice. Explain why
these effects occur.
A Woman Thinking
Learning Objectives
Module 4 Lecture 4
•
be able to
– explain the basics of science
around climate change as
represented by the IPCC
– summarize certain political
considerations implicated in
climate change mitigation and
adaptation
– elucidate three kinds of
geographies arising from climate
change
KGA171
•
•
•
•
demonstrate knowledge of
geographical concepts, earth and social
systems and spatial patterns of change
create and interpret basic maps,
graphs and field data
identify and analyse different
viewpoints to contribute to debates
about global development
communicate in reflective and
academic writing, referencing literature
when needed
Textbook Reading
Bergman and Renwick (2008) pp. 86-90 and 580-1)
IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate
Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
United Nations Development Program (2007) Human
Development Report 2007/2008: Fighting
Climate Change: Human solidarity in a divided
world
Critical reading
1. What is the author’s purpose?
2. What key questions or problems does the author raise?
3. What information, data and evidence does the author
present?
4. What key concepts does the author use to organize this
information, this evidence?
5. What key conclusions is the author coming to? Are
those conclusions justified?
6. What are the author’s primary assumptions?
7. What viewpoints is the author writing from?
8. What are the implications of the author’s reasoning?
[from Foundation for Critical Thinking]
Old Woman Reading a Lectionary , Gerard Dou
Part 2
SCIENCE POLICY AND POLITICS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
Peter Bridgman and Glyn Davis (1998) The Australian
Policy Handbook, Allen and Unwin, Sydney.
United Nations
United Nations
Environment Programme
World Meteorological
Organization
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change
UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
Kyoto Protocol on Climate
Change
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
“… common but differentiated responsibilities …”
The Kyoto Protocol and Marrakesh Accords
-40%
-20%
+20% +40%
“We are certain … emissions resulting from human activities … will
enhance the greenhouse effect … The unequivocal detection of the
enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.”
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on
global climate.”
“… new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed
over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities.”
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal … very high
confidence that the global average net effect of human activities
since 1750 has been one of warming.”
World Health Organization (2003)
IPCC Scenarios
UNDP (2007) Human Development Report
Part 3
THREE GLOBAL GEOGRAPHIES
The global geography of causes:
industrialisation and development
Population increase in the era of development
United States Census Bureau (2004, p.11)
2000 – CO2 equivalent
Causes by activity
2000 data, C02 equivalent
www.wri.org/image/view/9529/_original
Causes by country
INDUSTRIALISED COUNTRIES = 79%
The global geography of impacts
Regions put at physical risk by unabated climate change
German Advisory Council on Global Change (2008) Climate Change as a Security Risk, Earthscan, London, p.161.
Environmental impacts: sea level rise
Average increase 1.8 mm/yr 1950-2000 or 9 cm
Sea level rise mm/yr, average 1955-2003
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007, p.412
Social impacts: conflict
Resource conflicts 1980-2005
Health impacts
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007, p.418.
The global geography of solutions
Constraints + Opportunities + Choices
- environmental
- biological
- technological
- scientific
- economic
- environmental
- biological
- technological
- scientific
- economic
- political
- ethical
- spiritual
Social vulnerability, resilience and capacity
Solutions: alternative energy sources
59%
world installations
India 4th, China 6th
Installations
1st Germany
2nd Japan
3rd US
Worldwatch Institute (2008) Vital Signs 2007-2008, WW Norton, New York, pp.37-39.
A new
scenario?
Halving emissions by
2050?
“protect the climate system …on
the basis of equity and …
common but differentiated
responsibilities and respective
capabilities.”
UNFCCC
80% cut developed countries
20% cut developing countries
UNDP (2007) Human Development Report 2007-2008, p.49.
Physical
• buildings and
infrastructure
• communications
• energy systems
• transportation
Human
• health, skills and
nutrition
• education and
knowledge
• access to services
Organizational
• leadership
• advocacy
• training
• advance and
strategic planning
• trust
• capacity building
Financial
• savings
• credit
• pensions and
remittances
• welfare payments
• grants and subsidies
A sustainable world?
Natural
• natural resourcesfood,water, wood/fibre
• ecosystems servicessoil, fisheries, water,
biological processes,
wildlife habitat, waste
assimilation
• beauty of naturerecreation/leisure,
aesthetic value
Social capital
• relations of trust
and reciprocity
• common rules and
norms
• networks and
groups