Transcript Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC

Nature, Not Human Activity,
Rules the Climate
A Report of NIPCC
[Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change]
Prof. S. Fred Singer
University of Virginia/SEPP <[email protected]>
Keynote talk, March 3, 2008
International Climate Conference
Marriott Marquis Hotel, Times Square, NYC
Basic Issue: Is Global Warming
Human-Caused or Natural?
• Human-Caused:
CO2 is a greenhouse (GH) gas and is increasing
• Natural Climate Variation:
Climate has always been warming or cooling
• Q: So how can one tell the cause?
• A: Compare calculated pattern of warming
with observed pattern. Do the ‘fingerprints’
match or differ?
“The science is settled” – Al Gore
• But not in the way he imagined it: Global
Warming is mostly of natural origin. The
human contribution is not significant
• Therefore climate change is unstoppable
• We look at the warming pattern calculated
from GH models and compare with the
pattern measured by weather balloons
CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 1, Figure 1.3F PCM Simulations of
Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Temperature Change
CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 5, Figure 7E
A more detailed view of the disparity:
Douglass, Christy, Pearson, Singer - 2007
NO significant anthropogenic
warming seen in the data
• NIPCC vs. IPCC:
• What NIPCC did was to ‘connect the dots’ -using the available information from model
results and observations
• The same information was available to the
IPCC from published work, including also from
the US Government’s CCSP Report [2006]
• But IPCC chose to ignore these facts, because
they conflicted with the conclusion that GW is
anthropogenic
Two further questions
• Q: Why do climate models over-estimate the
warming effects of greenhouse gases?
• A:
The models ignore ‘negative feedbacks’ from
clouds and likely also from water vapor.
• Q:
Then what are the principal causes of climate
variations (on decadal time scales)?
• A:
Likely variability of solar activity (solar wind
and magnetic fields affecting cosmic rays – and
thereby cloudiness)
Solar-Activity Changes are the Main
Cause of Climate Change
• Stalagmites provide a convenient record:
• The stalagmite record shows a remarkably
close correlation between C-14 and O-18 over
a period of more than 3,000 years
• Carbon-14 is generated in the atmosphere by
cosmic rays and is a proxy for solar activity
• Oxygen-18 is a proxy for temperature
[Neff et al 2001]
What About Sea Level Rise?
• Predictions of the IPCC – from 1990 to 2007 -have decreased dramatically.
• Their 2007 value is 18 - 59 cm by 2100.
• James Hansen (and Al Gore) predict 600 cm!
• Our best value is 18 - 20 cm -- based on the
absence of acceleration during the 20th century
• But since 18 cm/century rise has been ongoing
for centuries, we expect no incremental rise in SL
– no matter what the cause of warming.
Sea Level Rise to 2100
H
R
S
IPCC IPCC IPCC 2007
1990 1995 2001 Draft
IPCC
2007
Hansen Rahmst. Singer
(H)
(R)
(S)
Max 367 124 77
43
59
600
140
20
Min
14
18
600
50
18
10
3
11
CO2 Mitigation is Not Needed
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Cap & Trade: pointless, political, expensive
Ethanol: ineffective and wasteful; subsidized
Wind, Solar: marginally useful, with subsidies
Carbon Capture: not needed and very costly.
Instead:
Generate Electric power from secure and lowcost coal/nuclear: phase out natural gas and
use as transportation fuel, feedstock, etc