Transcript IPCC - Union of Concerned Scientists

WG2 SPM
General Regional
Impacts
To
California specifics
IPCC, 2007 – North America
“"Warming in western mountains is
projected to cause decreased snowpack,
more winter flooding, and reduced
summer flows, exacerbating competition
for over-allocated water resources”
IPCC, FAR 2007
North America section
Will California receive adequate
precipitation?
Little consensus wetter or drier
Cayan et al. 2006
Decreasing
Snowpack
Increasing Warming
CA Climate Change Center Summary Report (2006)
“Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire
are projected to have increasing impacts on
forests, with an extended period of high fire
risk and large increases in area burned.”
IPCC, FAR 2007
North America section
Climate change impacts on forests
• Increased Temperatures
– (effects Productivity)
• CO2 fertilization
– (effects Productivity)
• Longer Dry Season
– Increased vulnerability to:
•
•
•
Widlfires
Pests
Direct mortality
• Shifts in species distribution
Slide modified from Climate Impacts group, Washington
www.cses.washington.edu
Wildfires Frequency increased
four fold in last 30 years.
Western US area burned
Source: Westerling et Al. 2006
Increasing Wildfire Frequency
Increasing Warming
CA Climate Change Center Summary Report (2006)
“Coastal communities and habitats will be
increasingly stressed by climate change
impacts interacting with development and
pollution...”
IPCC, FAR 2007
North America section
Mean Sea Level Relative to
1990 (inches)
Coastal structure
must account for
rising seas
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1900
1925
1950
2000
1975
http://ncpa.com/generation-plants/2.html
Year
SF Bay sea level risen ~ 7
Inches over last century
“Cities that currently experience heat waves
are expected to be further challenged by an
increased number, intensity and duration of
heat waves during the course of the century,
with potential for adverse health impacts..”
IPCC, FAR 2007
North America section
California Heat waves
Summer 2006 in California
--~ 160 deaths
- greater than 25,000 cattle dead
- impact on agricultural crops
- impacts on energy supply and demand
Projections
Higher Warming Range
(8-10.5 °F)
Medium Warming Range
(5.5-8 °F)
5
4
Lower Warming Range
(3-5.5 °F)
4-6 times as many heat-related mortality
3-4 times as many heat wave days
2.5-4 times as many heat-related mortality
2-4 times as many heat wave days
2-3 times as many heat-related mortality
2-2.5 times as many heat wave days
Sources: “Midwest suffers as heat bears down” Carla Johnson, Associated Press, appearing in Houston Chronicle, July 31,
2006 (July 21 total + 163).
“California's Cattle Death Toll Surpases 25,000” USAgNet, July 31, 2006.. California Climate Change Center 2006
California Climate Change
Scenarios Report
Produced by California Climate Change Center in collaboration with UCS
Eighteen
papers have been released
involving researchers from:
Scripps
www.climatechoices.org,
www.energy.ca.gov,
Or
www.climatechange.ca.gov
Institution of Oceanography,
UC Berkeley,
UC Davis,
Santa Clara University,
LBNL, LLNL,
US Forest Service,
Oregon State University,
Union of Concerned Scientists
State Agencies: ARB, DWR, and
CEC.
Slide from California Air Resources Board presentation January 22, 2007
AB 32—California Global Warming
Solutions Act (2006)
• Economy-wide GHG emission reduction to 1990
levels by 2020 (about a 30%)
• California Air Resources Board—lead agency.
California EPA and Climate Action Team will
oversee multi-agency coordination.
• Legislature may also play role through budget
process or through legislation to require certain
regulations
AB 32 Implementation
Slide from California Air Resources Board presentation January 22, 2007
Communicating With the Media
• Write a letter-to-the-editor (respond to
stories out today)
• Monitor local news for climate contrarians
and respond with letter-to-the-editor
• Make a call today to your newspaper’s
environmental reporter and offer to help with
background information or make a statement.
•Meet with an editorial board of your local
paper
Tips for Interviews
 Remember your audience
 Before talking to a
reporter, develop some
main messages and
talking points
 Keep it simple
 Frame it in human terms
Materials & Resources
on UCS Website:
• IPCC Process Backgrounder, IPCC Flyer
• UCS brochure on key findings of WGI. WGII
brochure available for download in a week
• UCS ppt presentation on key findings of WGI.
WGII ppt slides available for download in about a
week.
• SSI members will get an email notifying you
when the WGII materials are available
IPCC Process
www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html
UCS IPCC Synthesis Materials (SSI password-protected site)
www.ucsusa.org/ssi/ipcc
Tips on media and talking to policy makers
www.ucsusa.org/ssi
California Climate Impacts
www.climatechoices.org
For questions, to receive materials, and tell us what you are
doing to amplify coverage of climate issues in California, email
[email protected]
WATER
•Many rivers that derive water at their source from
melting glaciers or snow will have earlier peak runoff
in Spring and an overall increase in run-off, at least
in the short term.**
•The temporary increase in water flows will not
always be welcome. For example, glacier melt in
the Himalayas will increase flooding and rock
avalanche risks, while flash flood risks will increase
in inland areas in Europe.***
Temperatures are Relative to Today
•Global average temperature increase in these
slides is expressed as temperature rise above
today.
•Add 0.8 degrees Celsius to convert these to
temperature rise above pre-industrial (about 1750)
levels.
•The numbers and figures in the summary for
policymakers uses temperature rise above 1990
levels which is 0.6 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
Thank you!
Questions
Links for US regional impacts:
•Northeast: http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/index.html
•Great Lakes: http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/
•California: http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/index.html
•Gulf coast: http://www.ucsusa.org/gulf/
•Iowa: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/climate-change-inthe-hawkeye-state.html.
•Alaska: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/arctic-climateimpact-assessment.html.