IPCC Working Group II Summary For Policymakers

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Transcript IPCC Working Group II Summary For Policymakers

Slides for Communicating IPCC
IPCC Working Group II
Summary For
Policymakers: Impacts,
Adaptation and
Vulnerability
April 6, 2007
www.ucsusa.org
Figure: Courtesy of IPCC
Working Group II:
174 Lead Authors
222 Contributing Authors
45 Review Editors
Full Report 1,572 pages
Summary for Policymakers
Overview:
Consequences on the Ground
Water
Food
Species
Coasts
Extreme Events
Health
What the IPCC Means by “high confidence”
The IPCC uses specific language, also indicated by
number of asterisks, to describe confidence
regarding statements:
•very high confidence*** (9 out of 10 chance),
•high confidence** (8 out of 10 chance),
•medium confidence* (5 out of 10 chance).
Human-induced climate change
Observational evidence from all continents and
most oceans shows that many natural systems are
being affected by regional climate changes,
particularly temperature increases.
•89% of the 29,000 datasets that IPCC examined
exhibited changes in the direction expected from
warming.
Human-induced climate change
It is likely that since 1970, human-induced warming
has had a discernible influence on many physical
and biological systems.
WATER
•Hundreds of millions of people will be exposed to
increased water stress, which will get worse with
increasing temperatures.**
•Water availability will decrease by as much as 30%
in current drought-prone areas, in the dry tropics,
and over much of the mid-latitudes, including the
southwestern U.S.**
WATER
•The more than one sixth of the world population
that currently lives near rivers that derive their water
from glaciers and snow cover will see their water
resources decline.**
•Water resources will be diminished in western
North America as decreased snowpack in the
mountains reduces summer river flows.***
FOOD
•Hunger risk is projected to increase for low latitude
regions, in particular the seasonally dry tropics, as
these areas will likely experience decreased crop
yields for even small temperature increases.
•Regions in Africa will be particularly prone to
hunger risk due to a reduction in the areas suitable
for agriculture.**
FOOD
•Under slight temperature increases, higher latitude
regions such as Northern Europe, North America,
New Zealand, and temperate zone soybean regions
of Latin America can adapt and benefit from
increased growing season length, more
precipitation, and/or less frost.
•However, if local mean average temperature rise
exceeds 5.0 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 degrees
Celsius), crop yields in some regions are projected
to decline in mid to high latitudes.*
SPECIES
•Species have already shifted their ranges to higher
latitudes and higher elevations over the past several
decades.***
•Twenty to thirty percent of assessed plant and
animal species on Earth will face extinction if the
increase in global average temperature exceeds
2.3-4.1ºF (1.3-2.3ºC).*
SPECIES
•The capacity of many species and ecosystems to
adapt will be exceeded in this century as climate
change and its associated disturbances (including
floods, drought, wildfire, insects, and ocean
acidification) increase.**
•If sea surface temperature increases above
seasonal average maximum level by around 1.8
degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) coral
bleaching of most corals occurs and above 3.6
degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) most corals
die.**
COASTS
•Many millions more people are projected to be
flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the
2080s.***
•The most vulnerable populations are the largest
mega-deltas of Asia and Africa and small islands.***
Extreme Events
•Where extreme weather events such as heat
waves, droughts, fires, wildfires, floods, and severe
storms become more intense an/or frequent, the
economic and social costs of those events will
increase. **
•Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are
projected to have increasing impacts on U.S.
forests, with an extended fire season and large
increases in area burned. ***
Human Health
•Projected climate change-related exposures will
affect the health status of millions of people
worldwide.
•U.S. cities that currently experience heat waves are
expected to be challenged with an increased
number, intensity, and duration of heat waves over
the course of the century, with potential for negative
health impacts. ***
Human Health
•Some infectious diseases, such as those carried by
insects and rodents, may become a growing
problem. **
•The elderly, the children, and the poor of all nations
are the most vulnerable populations and may be
unable to cope with the climate change stresses.
Communicate the AR4
Actions Steps
• Write a letter-to-the-editor
• Monitor local news for climate contrarians and
respond with letter-to-the-editor
• Contact your policymakers – state representatives,
governor, congressperson – urge comprehensive
legislation to reduce emissions
• Offer to give a presentation to local community
group, religious group, or in a classroom
• Meet with an editorial board of your local paper
Communicate the AR4
Materials & Resources:
• AR4 Communicator Campaign
• IPCC Process Backgrounder
• Brochure on key findings of WGI
• Brochure on key findings of WGII (coming soon)
• PPT on key WGI findings
• PPT on key WGII findings (coming soon)
Communicate the AR4
IPCC Background, WGI Brochure
www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html
Tips on talking the with media and policy makers
www.ucsusa.org/ssi
Regional Climate Impacts
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/region
al-effects-of-global.html
Questions: [email protected]
THANK YOU!
WATER
•Many rivers that derive water at their source from
melting glaciers or snow will have earlier peak runoff
in Spring and an overall increase in run-off, at least
in the short term.**
•The temporary increase in water flows will not
always be welcome. For example, glacier melt in
the Himalayas will increase flooding and rock
avalanche risks, while flash flood risks will increase
in inland areas in Europe.***
Temperatures are Relative to Today
•Global average temperature increase in these
slides is expressed as temperature rise above
today.
•Add 0.8 degrees Celsius to convert these to
temperature rise above pre-industrial (about 1750)
levels.
•The numbers and figures in the summary for
policymakers uses temperature rise above 1990
levels which is 0.6 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
Links for US regional impacts:
•Northeast: http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/index.html
•Great Lakes: http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/
•California: http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/index.html
•Gulf coast: http://www.ucsusa.org/gulf/
•Iowa: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/climate-change-inthe-hawkeye-state.html.
•Alaska: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/arctic-climateimpact-assessment.html.
References
•The Summary for Policymakers released February 2, 2007, was the first
contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (the Working Group I technical report is titled Climate Change
2007:The Physical Science Basis). Available at www.ipcc.ch.
•The Summary for Policymakers released April 6, 2007, was the second
contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (the Working Group II technical report is titled Climate Change
2007:Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability). Available at www.ipcc.ch.
•For more background on IPCC history and process, visit
www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html.
•For 4 page handout on WG1 that can accompany this presentation go to
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/ipcc-highlights1.html.
The IPCC based its projections on six emission scenarios,
running each one through sophisticated climate simulation
programs.
A1B
A1FI
A1T
Economic
A1
Governance
Global
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
Population at 2100
A1
Economic
Governance
Global
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
Gross Domestic Product Growth
at 2100
A1
Economic
Governance
Global
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
Energy Use at 2100
A1
Economic
Governance
Global
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
Technological Change at 2100
A1B
A1T
Economic
Country A
Country B
Global
Governance
A1FI
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
Country C
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
NOAA
Washington
Washington Post
Projected Changes at the End of the 21st Century
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Change in Precipitation for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999
Dec – Feb
Scenario A1B
More Dry
More Wet
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.