Transcript Climate Change 2007 - Union of Concerned Scientists

Slides for Communicating IPCC
IPCC Working Group II
Summary For
Policymakers: Impacts,
Adaptation and
Vulnerability
April 6, 2007
www.ucsusa.org
Mean Sea Level Relative to
1990 (inches)
Coastal structure
must account for
rising seas
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1900
1925
1950
2000
1975
http://ncpa.com/generation-plants/2.html
Year
SF Bay sea level risen ~ 7
Inches over last century
“Cities that currently experience heat waves
are expected to be further challenged by an
increased number, intensity and duration of
heat waves during the course of the century,
with potential for adverse health impacts..”
IPCC, FAR 2007
North America section
California Heat waves
Summer 2006 in California
--~ 160 deaths
- greater than 25,000 cattle dead
- impact on agricultural crops
- impacts on energy supply and demand
Projections
Higher Warming Range
(8-10.5 °F)
Medium Warming Range
(5.5-8 °F)
5
4
Lower Warming Range
(3-5.5 °F)
4-6 times as many heat-related mortality
3-4 times as many heat wave days
2.5-4 times as many heat-related mortality
2-4 times as many heat wave days
2-3 times as many heat-related mortality
2-2.5 times as many heat wave days
Sources: “Midwest suffers as heat bears down” Carla Johnson, Associated Press, appearing in Houston Chronicle, July 31,
2006 (July 21 total + 163).
“California's Cattle Death Toll Surpases 25,000” USAgNet, July 31, 2006.. California Climate Change Center 2006
California Climate Change
Scenarios Report
Produced by California Climate Change Center in collaboration with UCS
Eighteen
papers have been released
involving researchers from:
Scripps
www.climatechoices.org,
www.energy.ca.gov,
Or
www.climatechange.ca.gov
Institution of Oceanography,
UC Berkeley,
UC Davis,
Santa Clara University,
LBNL, LLNL,
US Forest Service,
Oregon State University,
Union of Concerned Scientists
State Agencies: ARB, DWR, and
CEC.
Slide from California Air Resources Board presentation January 22, 2007
AB 32—California Global Warming
Solutions Act (2006)
• Economy-wide GHG emission reduction to 1990
levels by 2020 (about a 30%)
• California Air Resources Board—lead agency.
California EPA and Climate Action Team will
oversee multi-agency coordination.
• Legislature may also play role through budget
process or through legislation to require certain
regulations
AB 32 Implementation
Slide from California Air Resources Board presentation January 22, 2007
Communicating With the Media
• Write a letter-to-the-editor (respond to
stories out today)
• Monitor local news for climate contrarians
and respond with letter-to-the-editor
• Make a call today to your newspaper’s
environmental reporter and offer to help with
background information or make a statement.
•Meet with an editorial board of your local
paper
Tips for Interviews
 Remember your audience
 Before talking to a reporter, develop some
main messages and talking points
 Keep it simple
 Frame it in human terms
Materials & Resources
on UCS Website:
• IPCC Process Backgrounder, IPCC Flyer
• UCS brochure on key findings of WGI. WGII
brochure available for download in a week
• UCS ppt presentation on key findings of WGI.
WGII ppt slides available for download in about a
week.
• SSI members will get an email notifying you
when the WGII materials are available
IPCC Process
www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html
UCS IPCC Synthesis Materials (SSI password-protected site)
www.ucsusa.org/ssi/ipcc
Tips on media and talking to policy makers
www.ucsusa.org/ssi
California Climate Impacts
www.climatechoices.org
For questions, to receive materials, and tell us what you are
doing to amplify coverage of climate issues in California, email
[email protected]
WATER
•Many rivers that derive water at their source from
melting glaciers or snow will have earlier peak runoff
in Spring and an overall increase in run-off, at least
in the short term.**
•The temporary increase in water flows will not
always be welcome. For example, glacier melt in
the Himalayas will increase flooding and rock
avalanche risks, while flash flood risks will increase
in inland areas in Europe.***
Temperatures are Relative to Today
•Global average temperature increase in these
slides is expressed as temperature rise above
today.
•Add 0.8 degrees Celsius to convert these to
temperature rise above pre-industrial (about 1750)
levels.
•The numbers and figures in the summary for
policymakers uses temperature rise above 1990
levels which is 0.6 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
Thank you!
Questions
Links for US regional impacts:
•Northeast: http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/index.html
•Great Lakes: http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/
•California: http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/index.html
•Gulf coast: http://www.ucsusa.org/gulf/
•Iowa: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/climate-change-inthe-hawkeye-state.html.
•Alaska: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/arctic-climateimpact-assessment.html.
References
•The Summary for Policymakers released February 2, 2007, was the first
contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (the Working Group I technical report is titled Climate Change
2007:The Physical Science Basis). Available at www.ipcc.ch.
•The Summary for Policymakers released April 6, 2007, was the second
contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (the Working Group II technical report is titled Climate Change
2007:Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability). Available at www.ipcc.ch.
•For more background on IPCC history and process, visit
www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html.
•For 4 page handout on WG1 that can accompany this presentation go to
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/ipcc-highlights1.html.
The IPCC based its projections on six emission scenarios,
running each one through sophisticated climate simulation
programs.
A1B
A1FI
A1T
Economic
A1
Governance
Global
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
Population at 2100
A1
Economic
Governance
Global
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
Gross Domestic Product Growth
at 2100
A1
Economic
Governance
Global
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
Energy Use at 2100
A1
Economic
Governance
Global
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
Technological Change at 2100
A1B
A1T
Economic
Country A
Country B
Global
Governance
A1FI
B1
Development
Environmental
A2
Country C
B2
Local
Adapted from Arnell et al.
(2004). Global Environmental
Change, 14:3-20
NOAA
Washington
Washington Post
Projected Changes at the End of the 21st Century
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Change in Precipitation for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999
Dec – Feb
Scenario A1B
More Dry
More Wet
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.