Transcript Class-01 - Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

ATM-552: CLIMATE CHANGE
Monday and Wednesday 2:45-4:05pm, ES B13
ATM 552: Today's topics
Introduction to the topic of climate change
Syllabus
Knowledge assessment
Research projects
Homework / Grades
IPCC, AR4, WG1, 2007
Climate Impacts and Adaptation
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2, 2014
Some fundamental questions we will try to answer in this
class:
1. How can we be certain that we are changing our climate?
Anthropogenic vs. natural climate change?
2. How will climate change in the future?
Spatiotemporal aspects, changes in temperature, precipitation,
atmospheric circulation?
3. How will climate change affect us?
Environmental impacts? SLR?, extremes (droughts, floods, heat
waves), changes in the cryosphere, biosphere, etc?
4. What should we do about it?
Reduce emissions (mitigation)? study impacts? adapt?
Some logistics
INSTRUCTOR
Oliver ELISON TIMM ([email protected]) (442-3584)
Office: ES 316A
Office Hours: Tue 10:00-11:00am, Wed 1:15-2:15pm
(and by appointment*)
* Or take your chance and stop by for short questions [‘open-door’-policy]
Some logistics
All course material, including class lectures and papers will be
made available in electronic form (email, cloud-storage, webpages) or via links to original sources.
The student assessment
Respond to the following 10 statements by indicating whether you
agree or not.
Explain the reasons for your answer.
If you are not sure, rather than guessing, write ‘don’t know’.
Note that this is not a quiz.
There is no grade and you can take this survey anonymously.
It is simply intended to find out how much you as a group already
know about the topic of climate change.
ATM 552: Evaluation Policies
ASSESSMENT & POLICIES
•Research Proposal (20 percent)
•Mid-term Exam (20 percent)
•Oral presentation in class (20 percent)
•Research or review paper (40 percent)
ATM-552: Reading assignments
Reading assignments
The reading assignments are an integral part of the learning
process in this course.
Homework assignments typically will include reading 3-4 papers
per week on a particular topic related to Climate Change.
Papers will be discussed at the beginning of each class, with
students leading the discussion (summarizing main results,
methods and potential questions that may arise) – bring papers
with you to class!
Papers will be made available (in electronic form) a week before
the in-class discussion – hard copies are available upon request.
ATM-552: Reading assignments
Wednesday, 08/27/14:
-
Oreskes, Science, 2004
Lean & Rind, Geophys. Res.Lett., 2008
England et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014
We will discuss the papers at the beginning of the next class:
Wednesdays: Discussion groups
Mondays:
Short PPT presentations or Discussion groups
ATM-552: Your Research/Review Paper
You will choose a research topic related to Climate Change.
(During the first classes you will have time to find a research
project you are interested in.)
Get a pre-approval for your research idea from your instructor
You will start with a scientific proposition (hypothesis) and present
the key ideas in class and get feedback from your peer students
You write a full written research proposal (4 pages single spaced
12-pt font size, with no more than 3 figures, plus additional reference list)
The proposal will be reviewed by one of your peer students and the instructor
ATM-552: Your Research/Review Paper
Research phase
6-8 weeks of research include data collection and analysis, preparation of
summary tables and figures, and drafting of the sections ‘introduction’,
‘data’, ‘methods’, and ‘results’.
To the end of the research phase, you will give a 15-minute presentation
(and get feedback from your peer students)
You will finalize the research paper (‘abstract’, ‘summary’/’conclusion’)
and submit it to a ‘formal’ review process (by one of your peer students,
and optionally you can assign me for review)
You will revise your paper and submit the final version for grading
Note: we will adopt the AMS style guidelines.
http://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/authors/
journal-and-bams-authors/journal-and-bams-authors-guide/formatting/
Topics chosen for Research Project in previous classes
• Your own previous / current research related to climate change
(thesis, field work)
• Climate Change and solar variability
• Climate Change and energy (fossil fuels, renewable energy sources)
• Climate Change and glaciers
• The Kyoto Protocol (what, why, how?)
• The U.S. government policy on Climate Change: What is it?
• Climate Change and rising sea level
• Climate Change and extreme events (e.g. floods, droughts, heat
waves)
• Climate Change and natural hazards
Topics chosen for Research Project in previous classes
• Climate Change and agriculture
• Climate Change and human health
• Climate Change and biodiversity
• Climate Change in the Arctic / Tropics / New York State / Albany
(or any other region)
• The physics of the greenhouse effect
• The global carbon cycle
• Adaptation and/or mitigation of Climate Change
• Future Climate Change scenarios
The Research Project…something related to Climate Change
ATM 552: Important Dates
All homework assignments,
project proposals, reports, papers,
etc. have specific due dates.
ATM 552: Important Dates
Sep 15-17: Presenting research proposal idea in
class
1
8
15
Oct 1: Proposal due!
Oct 8: Feedback to proposal due
Oct 15: Mid-Term Exam
10
17
24
12
19
Nov 10-17: Research presentations in class
Nov 19: Research paper due for review!
Nov 24: Peer review due
8
15
17
Dec 8: Research paper due for grading!
Sep
Oct
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Dec
15/17
1
8
15
10-17
19
24
8
Proposal outline presentation in class
Written Proposal due
Student’s feedback due
Mid-Term Exam
Research result presentations in class
Research paper due for peer review
Peer-review due
Final revised research paper due
IMPORTANT WEB SITES
These are sites which provide important information on topics
covered in this class. Also many of the illustrations used in
class are available at these sites.
They can also provide you with additional material not covered
in this class or give a different perspective from the one taught
in class.
Finally these sites can be an important resource of information
for your individual presentations in the 2nd half of the
semester.
RECOMMENDED
SUPPLEMENT
IPCC (2013) “Climate
Change 2013 –
Summary for
Policymakers”
Available from
http://www.climatech
ange2013.org/
Contains many
figures and
illustrations used in
this class
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
WGI contribution to IPCC 5th Assessment Report
2214 pages
859 authors and editors from
39 nations
54,677 comments received
9200 cited papers
2 million GB of model data
Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
Written by scientists but approved
‘sentence by sentence’ by 300
government representatives
from 113 nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
3000 scientists from more than 150 nations
First Assessment Report (FAR), 1990
Second Assessment Report (SAR), 1995
Third Assessment Report (TAR), 2001
Fourth Assessment report (AR4), 2007
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), 2013/14
“The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from
observations is not likely for a decade or more.”
Climate Change – The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990)
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on
global climate.”
Climate Change 1995 – The Second Assessment of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”
Climate Change 2001 – The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC
“The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling
influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment
Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally
averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one
of warming.”
Climate Change 2007– The Assessment Report 4 of the IPCC
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. It is extremely
likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
Climate Change 2013 – The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC
http://www.globalchange.gov/climate-change
http://www.realclimate.org/
How can we be certain that we are changing our climate?