Transcript ppt - WMO
Climate-related impacts Does GCOS have a role? Michael Glantz GCOS 13-16 October 2008 Geneva, Switzerland www.fao.org/docrep/ u8480e/U8480E2t.jpg Global warming’s “Tipping points” • IPCC 1st to 3rd Assessments • IPCC 4th Assessment • Inconvenient Truth • Nobel Prize The Spotlight has shifted • From … • WG 1 IPCC SCIENCE •To … •WG 2 IPCC IMPACTS Problem Climates In “The Earth’s Problem Climates” Trewartha (1960) wrote that… “Many areas [of the earth] are climatically so normal or usual that they require little comment in a book which professes to emphasize the exceptional” In “Weather and Climate” R.C. Sutcliffe (1960) wrote that… “No climates are normal” 1984 What about …Climate? The climate future is arriving earlier than expected • Some of the changes associated with a warmer climate are appearing faster than expected – Melting of the Arctic sea ice – Greenland ice sheet melting – Rising sea level – Warm ecosystems moving upslope – Glaciers melting globally Melting Glaciers Columbia Glacier, Alaska 5 Aspects of Climate • Climate variability • Climate fluctuations • Climate change New global climate state • Extreme meteorological events • SEASONALITY Perceptions of Climate • Climate as a constraint • Climate as a hazard • Climate as a resource Perceptions of risk (preceptions "R" Us) • Risk taking • Risk averse • Risk making Source: B. Fischhoff How are we doing it? Wholesaling and Retailing climate, water and weather science • Wholesaling • Broadcasting – What it is – Why is it useful information – Who should use it? • Retailing • Tailoring – How to use it in specific locations, sectors, activities – Convincing people of it value – Demonstrating its usability Perception of Climate’s Impacts on Agriculture Weather weather USDA 1984 Reality of Climate’s Impacts on Agriculture drought USDA 1984 Commoner’s “4 Laws of Ecology” 1) Everything is connected to everything else. 2) Everything must go somewhere. 3) Nature knows best. 4) There is no such thing as lunch. a free Could these also be the 4 Laws of Climate ? Climate Change Impacts on the United States, USGCRP, 2000 “Climate Science” in the 21st Century • Understand the Climate System • Understand its components • Society is a component Coping with climate change and its impacts • Mitigation • Adaptation • Prevention • Bring back prevention Physical changes are to be expected Societal changes are also to be expected EWSs more important than some governments might realize Shanghai Harbor societal changes 2004 1987 Photographs taken from same location Societies are having to adapt to subtle Creeping Environmental Changes • • • • • • • • • • • • • Urban heat island Air pollution Acid rain Global warming Ozone depletion Soil erosion Deforestation Mangrove destruction Desertification Water quality & quantity Increasing population Increasing affluence Increasing demands for energy Millennium Ecosystem Assessment • The equivalent of the IPCC • Review this document for enhancement of the GCOS mission Thresholds of environmental change Too costly, too late. Move on. The proverbial 11th hour; little time to act Focus here This level captures attention Changes become critical Human induced; not all changes are bad Natural changes; different timescales What one generation leaves for the next generation Why Care about Hotspots? • Avoid surprises • Earliest warning of possible instabilities – Governmental vulnerability – Environmental degradation • Crossing unforeseen thresholds – Economic progress – Human health and public safety – Food security and insecurity Precautionary Principle Late lessons from early warning European Environment Agency www.biotech-info.net/ raffensperger/sld007.htm Words Matter: The concept of climate proofing • Similar to other idealistic goals, such as • • • • Eradicating poverty “No child left behind” MDGs by 2015 Sustainable development • It is a ‘feel safe’ and ‘feel good’ concept • But… is it realistic? Does it raise ‘false hopes”? • Toward Climate Proofing is more correct! Proposed geo-engineering schemes to control climate * And now … aerosol injections to the stratosphere HYDROPOLE South-North water diversions in China Damming the Med TOWING ICEBERGS CREATE THERMAL MOUNTAINS TOW ICEBERGS REDIRECTING AGULHAS CURRENT After Kellogg & Schneider Christian Kerr, Australian writer (25 May 2005) • We can't drought proof Australia. What we can do is try to idiot proof public policy – and spend public money in the way that delivers the best possible outcomes. People and the seasons • People, societies, and economies are attuned to the normal (expected, not actual) flow of the seasons • Most people on the globe depend on the normal flow of the seasons for their food supply Temperature Anomalies (July 2001 compared to July 2003) Deadly Heat Wave in Europe, 2003 2005 was a Busy, Destructive, Deadly & Expensive Hurricane Season All 21 names were used for the first time ever, so Greek letters were used for the final 5 storms: Alpha though Epsilon Source: WeatherUnderground.com, December 7, 2005. 2005 set a new record for the number of hurricanes & tropical storms at 26, breaking the old record set in 1933. Global warming and changes in seasonality • People live by the expected flow of the seasons • Hunting season, growing season, harvest time, disease outbreaks, rainy season, water season, etc. • Rainfall timing, intensity, location, extremes are expected to change • Societal activities that are climate, water and weather dependent will be affected in subtle ways. Summary thoughts Plethora of forecasters: too many cooks in the kitchen? • Many forecast models • Heavy competition to ‘get it right’ and to be first doing so • (onset, intensity, duration, impacts) Integrating knowledge • We must distinguish between what is interesting and what is essential to know to cope with climate change and its impacts. • develop methods to link and integrate quantitative and qualitative knowledge, compiled for different time and space scales in different environments. www.nt.gov.au/.../ bushbook/images/image81.gif Climate Equity and Ethics • • • • • • • Inter-generational versus intragenerational equity Environmental justice • Downwind • Downstream Natural disasters and poverty (the poor tend to live in high risk zones) North-South views on climate change Polluter Pays Principle (except if you are the polluter!) Precautionary Principle (“better to be be safe now than sorry later”) Nature’s Bank analogy (everyone knows about banks) Priority setting • Governments and institutions must decide about how they are going cope: • preventive, adaptive, mitigative responses to climate change and its impacts, local to global. • Not to do this puts responses to climate change and impacts in an “ad hoc” piecemeal modus operandi cain.ulst.ac.uk/ dd/report10/report10.gif Why I think time is important to GCOS (and the WMO) • GCOS has a ‘window of opportunity’ • Focus is shifting from IPCC Assessment for WG1 (Climate Science) to WG2 (Climate Impacts) • Decision makers want to know about impacts in their jurisdictions • ‘Ecosystems’ make up the interface between society and the atmosphere (climate)