Transcript CIGR-C-1937x

CIGR-Ageng2012
Valencia, Spain
10 July 2012
Climatic changes and evaluation of
their effects on Agriculture in
Asian Monsoon region (CAAM)
Masaru Mizoguchi
Department of Global Agricultural Science
The University of Tokyo
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-Introduction-
GRENE
• Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE)
– has started from 2011
– under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science and Technology (MEXT)
– Based on “the new growth strategy” which was
approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010
• Objectives of the program
– the domestic leading universities work together to
share research resources and research goals
– Environmental Information is selected as one of them
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What is CAAM?
• One project in the environmental information under
the research framework of the GRENE
– One of 6 selected-projects
– Biodiversity, Climate, Land, Water, Agriculture, Health
• Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on
agriculture in Asian monsoon region
– supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture,
Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) from 2011 to 2015
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Background of the CAAM project
• Asian monsoon region
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–
–
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Large population (more than 60 % in the world)
Many agricultural countries
Rapid development
Rapid change in land use
• Need for adaptation and mitigation strategies in
agriculture
– against the predicted climatic changes
– Control of GHG from agricultural fields
• Problem
– Lack of agro-meteorological and climatological data-bases
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Project aims of CAAM
• To improve the reliability of future climate
prediction
• To develop the information platform
– will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation
strategies in agriculture against the predicted
climatic changes in Asian monsoon region
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Research targets
• Development of agro-meteorological and
climatological data-bases
• Evaluation of land surface conditions on climate
• Elucidation of the effects of climatic changes on
major crops
• Development of the information platform to
design adaptation and mitigation strategies of
major crops against the predicted climatic
changes
– in Asian monsoon region
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Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region (CAAM)
Leader: Masaru Mizoguchi (The University of Tokyo)
Aims
1. To improve the reliability of future climate prediction , 2. To develop the information platform
which will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic
changes in Asian monsoon region
Climate change research
Agricultural effect research
Development of Agro-climatological Data-base in the Developing
Countries
Digitization of old observational
data recorded in paper format
Estimation of
the element of
Agricultural Meteorology
Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on
Agriculture Based on a Field Survey
Assessment System Using Meteorological
Data and Crop Models
/Construction of the system
for crop simulation under
various conditions
Agro-meteorological data base
Near real-time meteorological data
acquisition system
/Evaluation of the impact of climate
change on crop production
heat balance model
/Survey of cropping
/Comparison of simulation
and real planting
/Cultivation based on the
simulation test
Development of Information Platform to Design Adaptation
and Mitigation Strategies of Major Crops
against the Predicted Climatic Changes
Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover (LULC) Changes on the Asian
Monsoon Climate - Land-Atmosphere Interaction Study /Use of climate-model output on the DIAS and a
detailed land surface data
Validation of evaluation
system by field survey
DIAS
/Elucidation of the importance of land
surface atmosphere interaction Including the
impact of anthropogenic Asian monsoon region
Benefits
/Collection and maintenance of information
related to land use and land management, soil
and Agricultural Meteorology
/Collection of basic data on greenhouse gas
balance in agricultural land
1. Development of basic environmental information and its application to decision-making in the Asian monsoon region
2. Training of young researchers to lead the study of global warming mitigation measures and adaptation research and climate change
3. Construction of information infrastructure for the realization of global warming adaptation and mitigation measures for agricultural sectors
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1) Development of Agro-climatological Data-base in the Developing Countries in
Asian Monsoon Region
(Climate Change Research Team 1: CCR-1) (JAMSTEC)
2011
2012
2012
2013
Overseas collaborating
institutes
Collection and digitization
of agro-meteorological
and climate data
Routine obs.
duration of
sunshine,
temperature,
humidity, wind
speed, rainfall
Improvement of surface water and
energy budget model and calculation of
agro-meteorological elements
Special obs.
solar
radiation
longwave
radiation
Comparisons
Formulae
Calculation
2013
2014
2014
2015
Estimated values
solar radiation
longwave radiation
potential
evapotranspiration
climatic wetness
Development of
station-based and
gridded database
Completion and
opening of the
agro-climate
database
In-situ
observation
(Vietnam,
Philippines)
2012
2013
CCR2
DIAS
Scenario data of
agro-climatic
conditions from
AER1, 2
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2) Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover (LULC) Changes on the Asian Monsoon Climate
- Land-Atmosphere Interaction Study (Climate Change Research Team 2: CCR-2) (Tokyo Metropolitan University)
2011
2012
Long-term changes in
rainfall (inter-comparison of
several rainfall datasets)
2012
2013
Meteorological
Boundary condition datasets
data from CCR1
for climate simulation (soil
moisture etc.)
2013
2014
Inter-comparison of
CMIP3/5 in terms of LandAtmospheric interaction.
Long-term changes in Rainfall over
40 years in May
＋
Meteorologica
l data from
AER2,3
ー
Takahashi (2011)
Rainfall Change due to
land use change
＋
DIAS
2014
2015
Impact of LULC changes on Asian monsoon
climate using regional climate model
ー
Takahashi et al. (2010)
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3) Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon
Region Based on a Field Survey -Validation of evaluation system by field survey (Agricultural Effect Research Team 1: AER-1) (Univ. of Tokyo)
2011
2012
2013
2013
2014
Presets for joint research
(Thailand, Indonesia)
Cropping survey and understand
their characteristics
rice
cassava
spinach
Spinach field
Examination of potential
cultivation by crop models
Possible cultivation test for
suitable crop system
Rain-fed rice field
CCR-1
Cassava field
AER-3
AER-2
2015
Development of infrastructure
for Web applications use
Simulator for Cultivation Possibility of11
Rice
4) Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon
Region Based on a Field Survey - Construction of an Assessment System Using
Meteorological Data and Crop Models (Agricultural Effect Research Team 2: AER-2) (NARO)
2011 Collecting crop models & params.
（for Asian Monsoon Region）
2012
Rice Cultivar A Rice Cultivar B ・・・
Spinach
・・・
Cassava
2012 Implementing cultivation simulators
with flexibility which can exchange a crop
model
2013
2014
2015
Simulator execution
↓
Verification
Correction
Climate change evaluation
Implementing web applications
→ Deploying to DIAS
Rain Fed Rice Field
Improvement of
the framework
Existing Results
• Clop models
• Web applications
• Framework for
developing applications
Rice cultivation possibility
prediction tool
Results of Climate
Change Research
Meteorological Data +
Climate Change Coef.
Improvement
of simulators
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5) Development of Information Platform to Design Adaptation and
Mitigation Strategies of Major Crops against the Predicted Climatic
Changes in Asian Monsoon Region
(Agricultural Effect Research Team 3: AER-3) (NIAES)
2011 Collecting data of
meteorology, soil, land
2014 cover and agriculture
2012
2014
Evaluation of soil
temperature and
moisture of cropland
2014
Compilation of agroclimate change scenarios
Development of information
2015 platform for adaptation and
mitigation strategies
Foreign Institutes
for joint research
CCR-1
Measurement 2011
of greenhouse gas emissions 2014
from cropland
Rice field
Database for planning adaptation
and mitigation strategies
CCR-2
AER-1, 2
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2011 Installation of
weather station
in Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines
Radiation data in Philippines
International kick-off meeting
The First International Workshop of Climatic Changes and
Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region
Date: March 3-5, 2012
Venue: Asia Hotel
296 Phayathai Road, in front of Ratchathewi Skytrain Station, Bangkok 10400,
Thailand
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Local tour in the International Workshop
Rachaburi, Thailand, March 05, 2012
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Conclusions
• The CAAM project has just started under the
GRENE program in Japan
• Development of Agro-meteorological
information platform on climate changes
– will be useful for the various decision-making in
agriculture
• Education of young researchers
– will lead the study of global warming mitigation
measures and adaptation research in Asian
monsoon countries
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More information about
the CAAM project
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Gracias!
Thank you
ありがとうございました (Japan)
ขอบคุณคุณ (Thailand)
Terima kasih (Indonesia)
salamat sa inyo (Philippines)
Cảm ơn bạn (Vietnam)
谢谢 (China)
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