Transcript Modelling the interactions between climate change and rice

Enhancing the Adaptive Capacity of
Indian Agriculture to Climate Change:
Opportunities and Constraints
Pramod Aggarwal
Indian Agricultural Research Institute
New Delhi, India
Agriculture led development in India
 Food production increased from 65 in




1960s to 230 million tons in 2008
Land saved - more than 50 million ha
Calorie intake increased from 1900 to
2500 Kcal/capita/day
Poverty decreased in rural areas from
51% (in 1977) to 27% (in 2004)
Human development index improved
from 0.41 (in 1972) to 0.619 (in 2007-08)
And yet problems persist
 1/4th of the world’s hungry
 40% of the world’s malnourished
children and women
 Lagging in meeting MDGs
 Given a choice, 40% farmers would
like to leave farming (NSSO, 2005)
Climate change may further compound
the situation
2020
2050
2080
Source: IPCC2007; Adapted from Krishna
kumar et al. 2009
Assessing vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate
change: Controlled environment facilities at Delhi
Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:
Wheat
Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:
Maize
Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:
Sorghum
Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:
Soybean
These impact assessments
have uncertainties
 Possible errors in climate models, crop
models and data used
 No link with change in future irrigation
water availability
 No consideration of weather extremes
 Future technological developments, (e.g.
in crop improvement), and socioeconomic scenarios not considered
Projected impacts of climate
change on Indian agriculture





Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of
most C3 crops by 10-20%.
A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields
of many crops by 0-7%. Much higher losses at
higher temperatures.
Productivity of most crops to decrease only
marginally/remain unaffected by 2020 but
decrease by 10-40% by 2100.
Possibly some improvement in yields of
chickpea, winter maize, sorghum and millets.
Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in
north-western India due to reduced frost
damage.
Climate change may also
provide new opportunities
 Apple yields in
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
19
80
-8
19 1
82
-8
19 3
84
-8
19 5
86
-8
19 7
88
-8
19 9
90
-9
19 1
92
-9
19 3
94
-9
19 5
96
-9
19 7
98
20 -9 9
00
-2
00
1
Yield (Tons)
Himachal have
decreased due to
inadequate chilling
 Apple cultivation
shifted upwards
 Farmers changed to
vegetables earning
more income
 New varieties with
lesser chilling
requirement being
introduced
Years
Adapting agriculture to climate change:
Setting goals of adaptation
•Indian national agricultural policy aims a:
•Growth rate of 4% per annum
•Growth based on efficiency and conservation of resources
•Growth that is inclusive and equitable
•Goals of adaptation
•Producing more (diversified) food to meet demand
•Stabilizing production in climate stressed seasons
•Raising input use efficiency to address the increasing
competition for land, water, capital, and labour
settlements
•Greater focus on poor
Adapting to climate change by raising crop production:
Large yield gaps in crops provide an opportunity
9
Biological
potential yield
8
Grain yield, t/ha
7
6
Yield gap2: Limited by
climate, soil, and
irrigation
5
4
3
2
Biophysical
potential yield
Yield gap1: Limited by
crop management,
pests, and risk
management
approaches
Demand
2020
Current yield
1
0
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Year
Agronomic options can meet goals of
adaptation in short-term
20
Net vulnerability, %
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Impact
+ Sowing
date
+ Variety
+ Irrigation
efficiency
Adaptation options
+ Fertilizer
use
efficiency
+ Additional
inputs
Adaptation/mitigation options may not always be
economically viable: Example of N use efficiency in rice
60
40
30
20
10
Precision
farming
Integrated N
use
Zero tillage
Fert.
placement
Nitri.
inhibitor
-20
Leaf colour
chart
-10
Plant test
0
Soil test
Cost of reducing N loss (Rs. kg
-1
N)
50
Cost
of
one
kg N
in
urea
-30
-40
Pathak, H. (2010) Nutr. Cycling Agro-ecosystem.
National Food Security Mission
Aims to bridge yield gaps
 Launched in 2007
in 311 districts to
raise production
by 20 million tons:
 Better seeds
 Assured inputsnutrients, irrigation,
machinery
 Farmers training
 Demos
Climate change may limit the potential
adaptation window of current technologies
4.0
3.5
Yield gap, t/ha
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1
2
3
4
5
Managing current and future short-term climatic
risks is crucial
Climatic risks are common in India
70% of land under cultivation
prone to drought
 12% of land (40 million
hectares) to floods
 8% of land (8,000 km
coastline) to cyclones
 A major disaster occurs
every 2-3 years
 30 million people affected
annually
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI: BMTPC, Ministry of Urban Development, GOI
Short periods of drought can cause large
yield losses: Sorghum in Rajasthan
100
Yield loss, %
80
60
40
20
0
1-Jul
16-Jul
31-Jul
15-Aug
30-Aug
Period of drought
14-Sep
29-Sep
14-Oct
Adaptation to increasing climatic risks:
Assisting farmers to cope with current climatic risks
 Providing value-added weather services
 Weak weather infrastructure; data protocols, storage, access and
dissemination
 Promoting insurance for climatic risk management
 scientific and economically validated schemes; weather derivatives;
awareness
 Facilitating community partnership in food, forage and seed banks
 Technical know-how; capital costs; reduced acceptance if successive years
are risk free
 Compensating farmers for environmental services
 Technical know-how; costs of production go up
 Sharing experiences across similar regions
 Validation in new scenarios of development and climate risks
Policy responses have consistently evolved
with successive drought events
Drought
Events
1877
Major Policy
Interventions
Famine
Codes
1965
1979
Contingency
Green
Employ
Crop
Revolution ment
and FCI Generation Plan
Programmes
Scarcity
relief
Each round represent
death of one million people
1972
Drought
relief
1987
2002
Watershed
Approach
2009
Improved weather
forecasts and their
applications
Drought
Knowledge
Water
management management management
Each round represent around fifty
million people affected
Source: ADPC/MOA
Drought early warning and response
system has been conceptualized
RAINFALL MONITORING
R
E
S
E
R
V
O
I
R
CENTRAL
NATIONAL
CROP
WEATHER
WATCH
GROUP
CROP MONITORING
Early Warning
RESERVOIR WATER BUDGETING
STATE
FOOD / NUTRITION SECURITY
DISTRICT
EMPLOYMENT GENERATION
SUB-DISTRICT
DRINKING WATER
VILLAGE
CATTLE CARE
Response
Programs
Source: MOA
Despite such policy responses, climatic
risks still cause considerable loss
Key reasons
Poverty (2005)
Population at $2/day or less
 Widespread
poverty
 Limited
human capital
 Poor
governance
including
limited
stakeholder
analysis, and
dissemination
of knowledge
Green 1-10, Yellow 11-50, Red > 50
Human capital
literacy rate
Conclusions
1. Large yield gaps in all crops is an opportunity for
meeting food demand in future even in the face of
increasing climatic risks.
2. In short-term, several options relating to technology
transfer and adoption can help improve adaptive
capacity. Later, better adapted genotypes will be
needed.
3. Climate change may provide new opportunities for
growing crops in regions/periods not considered
suitable earlier. Need to manage them.
4. Problems related to poverty, governance, institutions,
and human capital limit agriculture growth today and
can also limit adaptation to increasing climatic risks.
Some observations on the proposed
Mega Program on climate change
 Clear identification of stakeholders:
 Farmers
 Policy Planners
 Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon markets)
 Stakeholders interest in adaptive capacity:
 Understanding vulnerabilities of the region
 Overall enhancement of adaptive capacity (not agriculture
alone)
 Short-term action plans
 Integrated, region specific solutions; and not by themes.
Some observations on the proposed
Mega Program on climate change
 New partnerships are required:
 Other science departments (earth
sciences, e.g.)
 Development departments (e.g. irrigation
and disaster management agencies)
 Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon
marketing)
 Cooperatives (e.g. for food, seed and feed
banks)