Transcript disat

DISAT-Contribution
R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo and M. Bindi
1. What are the main objectives of
our study?
– Select/Test impact models to
Mediterranean ecosystem tasks:
simulate
different
• Forestry - damage due to forest fire
• Agriculture - losses due to water and heat stresses
– Apply the selected models to estimate a range of impacts
using the probabilistic scenarios developed in WP1.2,
WP2A.3 and WP2B3-5
2. How do our objectives relate to
the Work Package objectives ?
– DISAT research activity matches all the
three main objectives of WP6.2 for months
25-42:
• selecting, calibrating and testing impact
models
• constructing impact response surfaces to
evaluate the impacts of climate change
• defining critical thresholds for preliminary
probabilistic estimates of future climate impacts
3. What have we achieved so far?
– Last 12 months
3.1 Complete the testing and calibration of
impact models for use in estimating future risks
of climate change
3.2 Develop a simple statistical model that
emulates process-based crop yield models (e.g.
Sirius)
3.3 Create preliminary yield response surfaces
altering the baseline climate
3. What have we achieved so far?
(3.1 Complete the testing and calibration of impact models)
• Durum Wheat model Calibration
(i.e. SIRIUS-Quality):
Milano
– Sites: 3
– Experimental data: 4 years (2000-2004)
from Experimental Institute for Cereals
Roma
Foggia
– Cultivar: Creso
– Model parameters: anthesis and yields
Anthesis date (Julian Day)
-1
Yield (Kg ha )
150
6500
140
5500
130
4500
120
3500
2500
y = 0.911x + 405.43
R2 = 0.6019
y = 0.9555x + 5.0538
R2 = 0.8568
100
1500
1500
110
2500
3500
4500
5500
6500
100
110
120
130
140
150
3. What have we achieved so far?
(3.2 Develop simple statistical models that emulates processbased crop yield SIRIUS-Quality model)
1.Model Validation for the
application domain:
– SIRIUS was tested on 6 grid
points (50 Km X 50 Km) over
the Mediterranean Basin using:
Veneto
Provence
• Daily climatic data : from
MARS Project database
Lazio
• Soil properties: from the
Eusoils database
Sicilia
Peloponnisos
Andalucia
• Yield Data: from EUROSTAT
database.
7.0
Observed
Simulated
3.08
3.45
SD
0.986
1.169
CV
0.323
0.313
Average
Pearson
0.66
Simulated Yield (Mg ha -1)
6.0
Yield (t ha-1)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Observed Yield (Mg ha-1)
5.0
6.0
7.0
3. What have we achieved so far?
(3.2 Develop simple statistical models that emulates processbased crop yield SIRIUS model)
2. Develop simple statistical models that emulates process-based crop
yield SIRIUS model (following the approach proposed by Olesen et al., 2006)
a) For each of the six grid points SIRIUS was run for the combinations of 8 climate scenarios
with 4 different soil types and 5 N-rates (160 runs per grid)
b) A neural network back-propagation model was trained and tested for emulating the SIRIUS
outputs:
• Network layers: 3
• Input nodes: 7 (variables: SWC, N level, Ta, Pa, T(JFM), T(AMJ))
• Hidden layer nodes: 20
• Output: 1
• Testing data: 30%
NN model structure
Testing results
3. What have we achieved so far?
(3.3 Create preliminary yield response surfaces altering the
baseline climate for both models)
• Yield response surfaces were estimated by altering baseline
climate in a grid box of Southern France:
–
–
–
–
–
Grid box: France 43.6 N, 5.0 E
Climatic data changes: Precipitation: -20% to +20%, Temperature: -2°C to +6°C
CO2 concentration scenarios: (353, 450, 550 and 750 ppm)
Soil Water Capacity: 115 mm
Fertilization: 100 Kg N ha-1
50 km
4.
Which of the WP 6.2 outputs do
we plan to contribute?
• Tasks
– Task 6.2.8: Construction of impact response surfaces for selected impact models of crops
– Task 6.2.9: Preliminary scenario impacts and risk assessment from available climate projections for selected
models of crops
– Task 6.2.10: Preliminary evaluation of the impacts of extreme events using selected impact models for
crops and forest fire from available climate projections
– Task 6.2.11: Application of preliminary results from the Ensembles Prediction System to impact models for
estimating risks of extremes and risks of impacts
• Deliverables
– Deliverable 6.7: Preliminary report on a comparative study of response surface and multiple scenario
approaches to assessing risks of impacts using selected impact models. Due Feb 2007 (Month 30)
– Deliverable 6.8: Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to agriculture and
forest. Due Feb 2007 (Month 30)
– Deliverable 6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the
Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Due Feb 2008 (Month 42)
• Milestones
– Milestone 6.12: Work Package 6.2 meeting to report progress in applying probabilistic information to
impact models and to agree on common approaches and reporting of results. Due April 2007 (Month 32)
– Milestone 6.13: Preparation of protocol for determining probabilistic information from the Ensembles
Prediction System (RT 2B) and applying it to calibrated impact models. Due Aug 2007 (Month 36)
– Milestone 6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using
calibrated impact models. Due Feb 2008 (Month 42)
5. What are we planning to do in
the next 18 months ?
– Next 18 months (months 25-42)
• Complete the development simple statistical models that
emulates process-based crop yield models for all the three selected
crops (i.e. olive, grapevine and durum wheat)
• Create yield response surfaces for all the three crops for a pilot
study area
• Define critical thresholds of impacts and obtain preliminary
estimates of the likelihood of exceeding these thresholds
using probabilistic information about future climate
6. What are our main questions
requiring discussion in this meeting?
• Define and collect the climate data that will
be used:
– to create crop yield response surfaces
– to obtain preliminary estimates of the probabilistic
impact of future climate change on crop yields