Transcript Ojima & Corell- Understanding Ecosystem

Understanding Ecosystem
Thresholds in Global Change
Living with climate change: are
there limits to adaptation?
Tyndall Centre and GECHS
2008
Dennis Ojima
Robert Corell
([email protected])
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR
SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
OUTLINE
• Global Climate Change and
Impacts
• Impacts to Ecosystems
• Adaptation Strategies
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR
SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Warming
greatest at
high latitudes
• 5 warmest years: 1998,
2002, 2003, 2004, 2005
• Amplification of warming
due to decrease of albedo
(melting of snow and ice)
IPCC 2007
Signals from
nature
Lara Hansen / WWF
Jeremy Little / University of Washington
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR
SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier
• Across the USA, tree
swallows are nesting
9 days earlier than
40 years ago
• Laying date is highly
correlated with May
temperature
Source: Camille Parmesan
PINE BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK
MPB BASIC
ECOLOGY
(1) Predator – aggressive Bark Beetle
(2) Co-evolution – host defenses
Small weak predator / large
dangerous prey  Mass Attack
strategy
(3) Required synchrony of emergence
at appropriate time of year
(4) No diapause – direct Temperature
Control of Seasonality
Interesting question: Focus of seasonal
temperature triggers for overwintering populations
and synchronous emergence without diapause
J. Logan
A Concept for a Adaptation/Impacts Multi-Space
A framing within which coping strategies are addressed
650 ppm
3.5 oC
550 ppm
3 oC
450 ppm
2 oC
Sea Level Rise
Ocean Acidification
Now
385 ppm
Biosphere Vulnerabilities
Pine Bark Beetles
Coral Bleeching
Time Scale: This Century
ADAPTATION DESIGN
• Adaptive Management practices are local
and need to take into account the complex,
non-linear behaviour of socio-ecological
systems
• Use of appropriate scenarios and
downscaling techniques of climate change
effects
• Full risk/uncertainty assessments
• Projects need to be linked to capacity
building & technology transfer
• Co-development of an integrative
management plan should treat the system
as a socio-ecological system
25-40 yr. Implementation Plan
Craft and Implement
Long-Range Plan
Controlling Projections
Tease out Key Projections
with Multi-Stresses
Track
4 Quad Scenarios
Develop the 4 Quad
Scenarios with Drivers
Set Time Scale
Key Tracking Indicators
and Evaluate Progress
Progress
Set the Time Scales visa
Climate Conditions
Downscale
Downscale Key Parameters
at needed Scale
Frame the
Frame the Context and
Scale (cities, water, etc.)
Problem
A Coping/Adaptation
Cascade
A Process to Craft a Long-Term (i.e.,
25-40 years) Continuously Up-datable
Adaptation Plan Focused on Climate
Change with Exacerbating Stresses
Governance and
“Well just Delay” Scenario
1. Scenario Details
2.
3.
.
.
n
GWG
Conc.
“Get with it” Scenario
1. Scenario Details
2.
3.
.
.
n
Policy Actions
Aggressive
Policy Action
Weak to Little
Policy Action
1.Scenario Details
2.
3.
.
.
n
Socio-Environmental
“Lots” of Luck Scenario
Processes
Processes Respond Rapidly
Easy Street Scenario
1. Scenario Details
2.
3.
.
.
n
4 Quad Scenario
Framework
These Processes Respond very Slowly
DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK
T1 Household goals,
Initial conditions
Political Economy, Institutions
Household Decision-making
Mitigation
Change
Scenarios
Land Tenure
Economy
Adaptation
Strategies
(long-term)
Land Use
Ecosystem
services
Cooperation/
Enabling
Mechanisms
Demography
Climate and other Environmental
Influences
Coping
Tactics
(short-term)
Resilience / Vulnerability
Infrastructure
Galvin et al
SUMMARY
• Application of Adaptation Cascade in
partnership with local communities,
states, and other resource management
entities
• Development of Adaptive management
strategies to deal Ecological Thresholds
• Developing technological, scientific,
socio-economic tools for addressing
adaptation needs
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR
SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
A Survey of
Climate Change Adaptation Planning
http://www.heinzctr.org/NEW_WEB/PDF/
Adaptation_Report_October_10_2007.pdf
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR
SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT