Transcript UNESCAP Ministerial Declaration on Improving Road Safety in Asia

Thailand
OSEMOSYS Steering Committee Meeting, KTH, 24-25, March 2011
SD21 Sustainable Development Scenarios
for the Rio+20 Summit
A Role for OSEMOSYS?
R. Alexander Roehrl and David le Blanc
DESA-DSD
UNCSD (“Rio+20 Summit”
• UNCSD (“Rio+20 Summit”), Rio de Janeiro, 2012
– www.uncsd2012.org
– Objectives: secure renewed political commitment for SD; assess
progress and implementation gaps; address emerging
challenges.
• Key themes
– “Green economy in the context of sustainable development and
poverty eradication”
– “Institutional framework for sustainable development”
• Preparatory process
– DESA as the Secretariat for the Summit
– UN Secretary General’s Global Panel on Sustainability
– Panel of Experts on the Transition to a Green Economy
– Preparatory meetings and analytical contributions
2
SD21 project
• United Nations Department of Economic and
Social Affairs (DESA) project, co-funded by EU
• Project objectives:
– Prepare substantive contribution to the “Rio+20
Summit” in 2012
– Take stock since 1992 and propose future vision for
sustainable development
• 9 in-depth studies, 1 flagship publication
– Full acknowledgement of contributions (IPCC style)
– Study 4: Report on sustainable development
scenarios
– Study 8: Report on sectoral risks and challenges
3
Approach
•
Informal discussion note for today: http://osmosys.yolasite.com/paper-sd21project.php
•
Review of models and sustainable development scenarios since the Rio
Earth Summit in 1992
•
Interactive scenario meta-analysis
•
•
–
To identify robust policies and actions
–
Classify with hierarchy of ImPACT identities (a la Ausubel)
–
Reporting template, database, scenario generator?
SD21 sustainable development scenarios and representative “marker
scenarios”
–
Beyond energy (3 SD pillars, “soft-linking”, harmonize), policy instruments
–
Narratives/storylines; Extreme scenario variants;
–
Collaborative, open-source, open-assumptions OSEMOSYS process?
–
Based on existing scenarios
Meetings and partnerships (SEI, IIASA, PBL, etc.?)
4
Scenario “families” (based on existing scenarios)
Scenario
families
Endpoints / SD21 scenarios
“Partial”
environmental
GHG concentrations
Other longterm
environmental
Economic
Social
Business-as-usual scenario
(“Growth first”)
Brown
Dynamics-as-usual scenario
(“Growth first with continued
incremental improvements“)
Catch-up scenario (“Growth first
with focus on catch-up
development”)
Green economy scenario (“Growth
with partial environmental
objectives”)
Yes
Yes
Green
Climate scenario ("IPCC world")
Yes
Planetary boundaries scenario
("One planet world")
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yellow
Development scenario ("MDG+
economy")
Rainbow
Sustainable development scenario
(“SD21 scenario”)
Yes
Yes
5
Example “endpoints”
“Partial” environmental
Relative decoupling
Price system
Investment in natural assets
Possible target
Global eco-efficiency target for resource use and pollution, based
on footprint per world GDP.
Resource efficiency and energy efficiency of production doubled
(or quadrupled) compared to historical trends (sector by sector)
Elimination of subsidies for fossil fuels, agriculture, and fisheries
One percent of GDP invested in restoration and maintenance of
natural assets
Long-term environmental
GHG concentration in atmosphere (in CO2eq.)
Land use
Water use
Economic
GDP
Specific focus on Africa and LDCs
Energy use
Atmospheric GHG concentration:
(a) 350 ppmv (350–550 ppmv); Energy imbalance:+1 W m-2
(+1.0–+1.5 W m-2).
(b) < 450 ppmv
(c) < 650 ppmv
(d) GHG emissions <3tCO2-eq. for all people on the planet by
2050
Land-system change <15% of global ice-free land surface
converted to cropland (15%–20%)
Global freshwater use: <4000 km3 per year (4000–6000 km3 per
year)
Inter-country differences in GDP per capita between all countries
by 2100 not different from those which prevailed between OECD
countries in 1990.
Africa catches up with the other developing regions (in terms of
GDP per capita); or absolute goal (GDP/capita in 2050 > XX).
All LDCs graduate by 2020.
Primary energy use: < 70GJ/cap for all people on the planet by
2050.
Social
Global income inequality
Poverty (1)
I90/I10 from world income distribution does not rise
People suffering from hunger <= XX in 2050
Poverty (2)
Primary education
Access to modern energy
Absolute poverty <=XX people
Universal access by 2050
Universal access to electricity and modern cooking fuels by 2030
6
AH1 India
Thank you.
[email protected]
7