Transcript Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project

Central New Mexico
Climate Change Scenario
Planning Project
Aaron Sussman
Senior Planner
Mid-Region Council of Governments
AMPO Annual Conference
October 23, 2014
Albuquerque and Central New Mexico
 Albuquerque population = 555,000
 Less than 100,000 in 1950
 Metropolitan area = 900,000
(Projected >1.3 million by 2040)
 City area = 190 mi.² / MSA = 8,400 mi.²
 Surrounded by mountains to the east;
tribal lands to north, south, and west
 Northern edge of Chihuahuan Desert
 9” of rain per year
 Elevation = 5312’
Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario
Planning Project
 Partnerships with range of federal
agencies, US DOT Volpe Center
 Understanding of climate trends
 Temperature & precipitation levels
 Climate change impacts on central NM




Droughts
Wildfires
Flooding
Water availability
 Consider whether development
patterns make us more or less resilient
to climate impacts
Integration with 2040 Metropolitan
Transportation Plan
 Scenario planning efforts
 MTP performance measures
 Transportation conditions
 Air quality / emissions
 Water consumption
 Development in sensitive
locations
Addressing Climate Change through Regional
Planning Efforts
Mitigation
Adaptation
Can we grow and invest in ways Will our development choices
that reduce GHG emissions?
make us more or less resilient
to the impacts of climate
 Targeted density
change?
 Mixed-use
 Public transit
 Minimizing growth in
vulnerable areas
 Roadway efficiency
improvements
 Water availability and
consumption
Changing Climate Conditions
Rio Grande Basin - 1971-2011
 Average temperature
increased by 0.7⁰F per
decade
 Twice the global average
Source: NOAA
Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment
 Study team:
 Bureau of Reclamation
 Army Corps of Engineers
 Sandia National Labs
 Detailed evaluation of climate,
hydrology, and water operations
of the upper Rio Grande basin of
Colorado and New Mexico
 Literature review on climate
impacts in central New Mexico
 Water availability projections
Key Questions
 How much water?
 In which season?
Modeling Climate Change and Future Streamflow
General Circulation Models
(GCM)
Future Global Climate
112 runs, 1950-2099
Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment:
Differences between Current Flows and
Modeled Future Flows, with Impacts to
Water Deliveries and Reservoir Levels
112 Projections of Future
Regional Temperature and Precipitation
(Statistically Downscaled)
Operations Model: Route Flows Downstream
Land Surface Model:
112 Projections of Future
Snowmelt and Rainfall Runoff
Post-Processing Bias Correction of Flows
Resulting in 224 Hydrographs
Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment
Warm-Wet
Hot-Wet
Warm-Dry
Hot-Dry
Source: Bureau of Reclamation / Sandia Labs
Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment
 All 112 scenarios result in higher
temperatures
 Higher temperatures increase
water demand for irrigated
agriculture and riparian zones
 Precipitation is highly variable,
which may lead to more intense
droughts and more extreme
events
 Earlier snowmelt runoff 
Changes in timing of river flows
Water Availability in ABQ Area: 2040
River Flows in 2040 Compared to
Historic Data (by GCM grouping)
Rio Grande
San Juan-Chama system
Water Availability in 2100
According to the Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment:
 Rio Grande flows decrease by 1/3
 San Juan-Chama flows decrease by 1/4
Scenario Planning Process
 Public outreach process and
information gathering
 Regional challenges
 Scenario concepts
 Series of three workshops
1. Introduce concept of scenario planning
2. Preliminary scenarios – zoning-based
3. Refined scenarios – zoning plus
development incentives
 Carrots rather than sticks
approach to growth and
locations of new development
Preferred Scenario – Incentivized Locations
Climate Change-Related Evaluation Measures
 Wildland-Urban Interface – Tool for assessing high forest
fire risk areas
 FEMA-designated 100-year floodplains
 Crucial Habitat Assessment Tool
 CO₂ emissions
 Water consumption
Wildland-Urban Interface
Housing + Employment Growth –
Intermix Area Only
90%
85%
84%
80%
75%
70%
63%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
Trend
Preferred
100-Year Floodplains
What we hoped to do:

Quantify potential increase in flood risks

Identify areas that will be at risk as climate
conditions change

Measure current and future development on
new high-risk areas
What we ended up doing:

Measure current and future development on
existing flood plains

Reduce zoning capacity in floodplains by 20%

Case study: potential changes to 100-year 24hour design storm on Calabacillas Arroyo
 10% increase in precip  25% increase in flow
 25% increase in precip  75% increase in flow
100-Year Floodplains
What we hoped to do:

Quantify potential increase in flood risks

Identify areas that will be at risk as climate
conditions change

Measure current and future development on
new high-risk areas
What we ended up doing:

Measure current and future development on
existing flood plains

Reduce zoning capacity in floodplains by 20%

Case study: potential changes to 100-year 24hour design storm on Calabacillas Arroyo
 10% increase in precip  25% increase in flow
 25% increase in precip  75% increase in flow
Calabacillas Arroyo – Rio Rancho, NM
100-Year Floodplains
What we hoped to do:

Quantify potential increase in flood risks

Identify areas that will be at risk as climate
conditions change

Measure current and future development on
new high-risk areas
What we ended up doing:

Measure current and future development on
existing flood plains

Reduce zoning capacity in floodplains by 20%

Case study: potential changes to 100-year 24hour design storm on Calabacillas Arroyo
 10% increase in precip  25% increase in flow
 25% increase in precip  75% increase in flow
Housing + Employment in
100-Year Floodplains
50.0%
48.0%
46.0%
44.0%
43.9%
43.0%
42.0%
40.0%
38.0%
36.0%
34.0%
32.0%
30.0%
Trend
Preferred
Crucial Habitat Areas
 Western Governors Association tool –
provides score for 1-mi² hexagons
 Overlay land use with crucial habitat
scores
 Challenges:
 Most critical locations (presence of
water and endangered species) are in
the urban core
 Lowest risk areas also those subject to
potential sprawl
 Interesting, but we haven’t quite
figured out how to put the information
to use
Emissions
CO₂ Emissions
35%
Preferred Scenario:
31%
 Reduction in VMT, VHT, VHD
30%
 Reduction in river crossing trips
25%
 Increase in systemwide speed
 Increase in proximity to jobs,
activity centers
22%
20%
15%
10%
 Increase in transit usage
5%
0%
Trend
Preferred
Water Consumption

How we grow impacts how much
water we consume

Analyze consumption patterns by
land use type and housing mix

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Single-family vs multi-family
Large-lot vs small-lot
Daily residential consumption
dropping locally and nationally
 1994: 250 gallons per capita
 Today: ~135 gallons per capita
Source: Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority
Next steps: currently assessing water
consumption by land use scenario
Project Benefits
 Climate change as framing device for scenario planning and a way to
introduce new measures
 Create a sense of urgency
 Connection between transportation, land use, and water
 Agency connections
 Project intended to integrate federal-land management areas into MPO planning
 Equally beneficial in unexpected ways
 Bureau of Reclamation
 University of New Mexico
 Army Corps of Engineers
 Sandia National Labs
 Water Utility Authority
Discussion
 Not all measures lend themselves to scenario planning analysis;
further refinement is needed and not always feasible
 No one else is trying to link climate impacts with development
policies and transportation decision-making, so the MPO has a
role to play
 Once you have this information, what do you do with it?
 Should we talk about climate change directly, or should we talk
about co-benefits?
Miscellany
 Thanks to the following agencies for financial and technical assistance on
the Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project:
 FHWA
 National Parks Service
 Bureau of Land Management
 US DOT Volpe Center
 Volpe Center has developed a tool to process daily time-step data from
general circulation models (1/8th-degree cell) to assess changes in:
 Average daily temperature
 Maximum and minimum temperature
 Precipitation levels
Contact: Alex Epstein – [email protected]
Questions?
Aaron Sussman, AICP
Mid-Region Council of Governments
[email protected]