Transcript PPT 10.4MB

Possible adaptation decisions from
investigating the impacts of future
climate change on food and water
supply in China
Lin Erda, Xu Yinlong, Ju Hui and Xiong Wei
Agro-environment and Sustainable
Development Institute, CAAS
Zhang Silong
Water Information Centre, MOR
Global Warming and Its Impact
IPCC third assessment report identify an
average increase in global temperature of
0.4~0.8 ℃ in past century
Over the same period in China preliminary
results show this temperature increase to be
between 0.7~0.8 ℃, the impacts of climate
change in China were different and severe.
Global Warming and Its Impact
OBSERVED
IMPACTS FOR HIGH WARMING SCENARIO
Risks of large scale
discontinuities
Some increase in extreme climate events
Small positive or negative net monetary
impacts (most people adversely affected)
Extreme and
irreversible effects
Net negative monetary impacts
Net negative for some regions
Net negative for many regions
Risks to some systems
Risks to many systems
Aggregate impacts
Distribution of
impacts
Unique and
threatened systems
5
IPCC High
Global mean annual temperature
change relative to preindustrial
4
3
2
IPCC Low
1
0
1900
2000
1950
OBSERVED
Temperature anomaly (oC)
6
2050
Some increase in extreme climate events
Small positive or negative net monetary impacts (most people adversely affected)
Net negative for some regions
Risks to some systems
IMPACTS FOR LOW WARMING SCENARIO
2100
Extreme and
irreversible effects
Aggregate impacts
Distribution of
impacts
Unique and
threatened systems
China/UK Cooperation Project
The capacity of the Hadley Centre model
to simulate the present climate in China
has been validated with observed data.
This has been used to develop climate
change scenarios for China.
What is PRECIS?
PRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for
Impacts Studies
Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level
SRES climate scenarios over the world
Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for
the impacts assessments of climate
change at the regional-level
A demo for RCM downscaling
A demoHadAM3H
for RCM downscaling
PRECIS
PRECIS has a strong ability to simulate daily precipitation
Climate Change Scenarios based on
·
A2 –globally inhomogeneous economic
development, with a continuous increase in
the world’s population and a medium-high
rise in greenhouse gas emissions.
·
B2 – regional sustainable development,
with a slower (but continuous) increase in the
world’s population and a medium–low rise in
greenhouse gas emissions.
75E
1.5
80E
85E
2
90E
2.5
95E
100E
3
105E
3.5
110E
115E
4
120E
4.5
125E
5
130E
135E
5.5
Simulated annual increase (C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under
SRES A2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990
75E
1.5
80E
85E
2
90E
2.5
95E
100E
3
105E
3.5
110E
115E
4
120E
4.5
125E
5
130E
135E
5.5
Simulated annual increase (C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under
SRES B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990
Simulated average change in rainfall (mm/day) for 2071–2079 under SRES
A2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990)
Simulated average change in rainfall (mm/day) for 2071–2079 under
SRES B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990)
Climate Scenarios by PRECIS for China
A2 (medium–high emissions)
B2 (medium–low emissions)
Time
period
Temperatur
e increase
(C)
Rainfall
increas
e (%)
CO2
(ppmv
*)
Temperatur
e increase
(C)
Rainfall
increas
e (%)
CO2
(ppm
v*)
2011~
2020
1.00
3.3
440
1.16
3.7
429
2041~
2050
2.11
7.0
559
2.20
7.0
492
2071~
2080
3.89
12.9
721
3.20
10.2
561
Climate scenario trends in China by PRECIS
years
Increased T Increased P Trends
(C)
2021
1.117
3.87%
-
2051
2.109
7.32%
-
2071
3.035
6.88%
dryer
2076
2.853
9.25%
dryer
2081
3.102
10.76%
dryer
2086
2.895
8.06%
dryer
2090
3.422
5.49%
dryer
Progress
A regional crop model is being developed for
the whole of China.
This has been linked to the climate model to
predict changes in yield of Wheat, Rice, Corn
and Cotton.
Regional Crop Model
Input files
Soil polygon file
Crop variety
polygon file
Socioeconomic
polygon file
PRECIS
Model Shell (Reading polygon input files, writing output files,
Running model repeatedly based on the Polygon definition.)
CERES
Output files
Biomass output
Water output
Growth output
2080 Rice Yield Changes under A2,B2 Scenarios
Current Wheat Area
2080 Wheat Yield Changes under A2,B2 Scenarios
Current Maize Area
2080 Maize Yield Changes under A2,B2 Scenarios
2050 Cotton Yield Change
under A2 Scenario
N
W
E
S
Province.shp
Boundry.shp
Cottonyield.shp
0,FM-A2-2040s-327
1 - 600 kg/ha
600 - 900 kg/ha
900 - 1200 kg/ha
1200 - 1500 kg/ha
1500 - 1800 kg/ha
1800 - 2100 kg/ha
2100 - 2400 kg/ha
2400 - 3000 kg/ha
N
W
E
S
2050 Cotton Yield Change
under B2 Scenario
Province.shp
Boundry.shp
Cottonyield.shp
0,FM-A2-2040s-559
1 - 600 kg/ha
600 - 900 kg/ha
900 - 1200 kg/ha
1200 - 1500 kg/ha
1500 - 1800 kg/ha
1800 - 2100 kg/ha
2100 - 2400 kg/ha
2400 - 3000 kg/ha
SOC changing in 2050
under A2 scenario
SOC changing in 2050
under B2 scenario
SOC changing in 2080
under A2 scenario
SOC changing in 2080
under B2 scenario
Uncertainties of CO2 fertilization and Water availability
Change in average yield (%)*
With CO2 fertiliser effect
A2:
rainfed
A2:
irrigated
B2:
rainfed
B2:
irrigated
2020s
2050s
9.8
Without CO2 fertiliser effect
2080s
2020s
2050s
2080s
18.4
20.3
-10.3
-22.8
–36.4
-0.6
-2.2
-2.8
-5.3
-11.9
–14.4
1.1
8.5
10.4
-11.3
-14.5
–26.9
-0.1
-1.3
-2.2
0.2
-0.4
–3.8
Projected changes in average maize yield compared with yield under baseline (1961–1990)
Possible Adaptation for Agriculture
• develop and promote use of CO2
fertilizing varieties
• Promote irrigation and watersaving technologies
• Adopt heat-resistant crops,
water-efficient cultivars with
resistance to pests and diseases
• adjust crop planting distribution
based on getting warmer climate
in Northeast China in next 20~30
years
• recover vegetation of grassland
to avoid further desertification；
feeding animal with grass
productivity
Study on the Effect of CO2 Fertilization on
wheat production
Using a CO2 Gradient Chamber to
simulate the influence of the different
raised CO2 concentration with the
warming climate.
Long term treatments of high lever of
CO2 concentration are taking on
wheat rice and maize generations
Interaction of 450, 550 and
650ppm CO2 and 1-3℃ warming
represents positive or adverse
effects on these crops
2050 Soil moisture deficit under
A2 scenario
Change of soil moisture deficit (mm)
<= -20
-20 - 0
0 - 20
20 - 40
40 - 60
> 60
No cropland or data
Effect of climate change on Yellow River
• Recent 40 years, the observed
runoff from the 6 largest
rivers in China showed a
decrease trend.
• The Huayuankou station of
Yellow Reviver, with a
decrease rate of 5.70％per
decade.
• Total runoff of the Yellow
River catchment would
decrease by 0.43％ per decade。
Runoff Deepness changes of 2071～2090
comparing with the baseline under B2 Scenarios
Results from VIC
（variable leakage
capacity）Model suggest
the average runoff
deepness in Ningxia,
Gansu, Shaanxi, and
Shanxi of of the Yellow
River catchment may
decrease
2％～10％。
Water Demand and Supply of Selected Provinces
2050 Water Supply(100M m3)
Provin
ce
2050 Water Demands(100M m3)
Pro
d
Live
Ec
o
Total
87.3
59
17.5
10.8
87.3
0
14
275
207.7
17.8
68.4
293.9
-18.9
42
32
274
212.7
55.2
6.1
274
0
40
9
19.1
123.1
84.4
21
17.7
123.1
0
106
40
22
9.8
177.8
137.8
15.5
31.5
184.8
-7.0
Qingha
i
106
10
1.5
3.5
121.0
30.7
5.8
84.5
121
Ningxia
80
8
6.4
5.8
100.2
102.4
4.2
1.1
107.7
Groun
d
Under
groun
d
trans
fer
others
Shanxi
32
38
4
13.3
Inner M.
140
104
17
Henan
90
110
Shaanx
i
55
Gansu
Total
Different
0
-5.5
Possible Adaptation for Water Use
Assess carrying capacity of water resources
Actively adopt water saving technologies to
establish a water-saving community
Improve the water price system, apply used
water and treated sea water
South-to North water diversion
Conclusion
• Future climate change is almost unavoidable,
adaptation should be most important
• Adaptation can hoist the danger lever due to
suspend adverse impacts
• Incremental costs of adaptation could create a
serious burden for developing countries
• Adaptation need international cooperation