Transcript Introduction to the Workshop and PRECIS DHGx

Welcome to the PRECIS training
workshop
Tanzania Meteorological Agency, 29th June – 3rd July 2015
Objectives of this workshop…
During the next four days, we will be learning about the science of
climate modelling and climate change with an emphasis on
regional climate modelling using PRECIS.
We’ll cover:
Modelling the Earth’s climate
Downscaling Techniques
Uncertainties, and ways to address them
Designing Experiments
Validating Experiments
Addressing extreme events
Model Formulation
We’ll spend time learning about the output data from PRECIS and
how to analyse it. You’ll do this by working through tutorial
worksheets in a Linux environment.
Other needs? Let us know, and we will try our best to help.
Contents
Table of Contents
• What is PRECIS?
• Why was PRECIS developed?
• Who is PRECIS for?
• Where PRECIS fits in
• What is an RCM and what information
does it need as input?
What is PRECIS?
• Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies
• It’s not just a regional model – it’s a whole product
*system*
• PRECIS can be applied to any area of the globe
• PRECIS can be used to generate detailed
projections of future climate
• PRECIS has a simple user interface to set up and
run a regional climate model (RCM)
• PRECIS also provides utilities for users to
manipulate RCM output
Why was PRECIS developed?
• There’s a UNFCCC requirement for countries to assess
national vulnerability to climate change and to make
plans for adaptation
• Annex II countries are called on to transfer technology
to non-Annex II countries to help them fulfil this
requirement.
• PRECIS allows non-Annex II countries to
– resolve local details and provide realistic extreme
events for impact studies
– generate their own national scenarios of climate
change for use in impact studies
• The PC version of PRECIS addresses the UNFCCC
requirement on the UK to assist capacity building and
technology transfer
Who is PRECIS for?
• Anyone interested in understanding climate
change and its potential impacts
• Highly relevant for scientists involved in
vulnerability and adaptation studies
(particularly for National Communications
reports)
• Very useful for groups of scientist and
researchers in a single region to work together
and share results
Where PRECIS fits in
IPCC
National
research
centres
PRECIS
You!
What is a Regional Climate
Model?
• An RCM is a mathematical model of the
atmosphere and land surface, with a
representation of the ocean surface
– ‘High’ resolution: Produces data in
grid cells ≤ 50km in size
– Spans a limited area (region) of the globe
• An RCM contains representations of many
of the important physical processes within
the climate system
–
–
–
–
–
–
Cloud
Radiation
Rainfall
Atmospheric aerosols
Soil hydrology
Etc.
Input (boundary) data
• Limited area regional models require
meteorological information at their edges
(lateral boundaries)
• These data provide the interface between
the regional model’s domain and the rest
of the planet
• The climate of a region is always
strongly influenced by the global
situation
• These data are necessarily provided by
global general circulation models (GCMs)
• or from observed data sets with global
coverage (re-analysis experiments)
The components of the
PRECIS system
• The RCM
• User interface to design and configure RCM
experiments
• Display and data processing software
• Lateral boundary and initial conditions
• Training course and materials
• The PRECIS technical manul and scientific handbook
• Technical and Scientific Support web forum
(http://forum.precisrcm.com)
• Data sharing website (http://www.precisrcm.com)
• Main Website (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis)
The PRECIS user interface
PRECIS user interface:
main functionality
• Region specification
– Choice of domain
– Land surface configuration
•
•
•
•
RCM and Emissions scenario
Time period of the simulation
Output data
Run, Halt and Restart the
experiment
Boundary conditions
• First run a test
experiment using the
sample data included
with PRECIS
• Then request a full set
through
[email protected]
Minimum hardware
requirements
• Computer: PC running under the Linux operating system
• Dual core CPU
• Memory : 512MB minimum; 1+ GB recommended
• Minimum 250GB disk space + offline storage for
archiving data
• Simulation speed proportional to CPU speed
30 year integration, 100x100, 50km grid points
• 4 cores: ~ 2.75 weeks
• 8 cores: ~ 12.5 days
What PRECIS can deliver
• PRECIS can provide:
– climate scenarios for any region
– an estimate of uncertainty due to different
emissions
– an estimate of uncertainty due to climate
variability
• Data available from PRECIS:
– Comprehensive and consistent meteorological and
physical data for the atmosphere and land-surface
– Hourly and daily data as well as longer timescale
averages
Future developments
• Continuously upgraded to reflect new CPUs, new
compilers and new versions of Linux
• Ability to run PRECIS RCM from more
GCMs/Reanalyses
– More IPCC AR5 GCMs will become available
during 2015
• Output of PRECIS in CF-compliant NetCDF format
directly
• Incorporation of the Met Office IRIS analysis and
visualisation software
Support and follow-up
• For support:
– Online discussion forum hosted by
http://forum.precisrcm.com
– E-mail the PRECIS team
([email protected])
• Website
– http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis
• Collaboration/workshops
Summary
• PRECIS: The Met Office Hadley Centre’s regional climate
modelling system
• Resolution of 50km (25km for small areas)
• Runs on a Linux based PC; supplied on a DVD or via
download, comes with sample driving data
• Can be set up by the user to run over any area of the globe
• Useful for vulnerability and adaptation studies and climate
research
• Provides the capacity to locally produce scenarios of climate
change
About the schedule…
• Morning session – basic understanding of RCM science i
– Climate modelling, model evaluation, uncertainties in
climate projections, experimental design, extremes
• Afternoon session – hands-on practical sessions
– Running PRECIS
– Manipulate model outputs - the practical worksheets
give examples of analyses that people often do with
regional model data.
• Do not expect to finish ALL of the practical work!
– Think about which exercises are most relevant to you
Questions