Transcript Slide 1

PRECIS in Africa: Facilitating capacity building
and technology transfer to enable climate
change mitigation and adaptation studies
Joseph Intsiful, Defra Meeting, Room FG-5, 18 March 2008
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Outline
• The nature of PRECIS African activities
• Capacity building and collaborations
• Climate research and climate scenario development
• Awareness raising and impacts research
• Outlook for future activities
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The nature of PRECIS activities
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Past PRECIS African activities
• Mainly to build capacity in climate modelling/Science
• First workshop in South Africa (2003) provided training for
climate modellers across Africa
• PRECIS infrastructure was set up to provide high resolution
climate data for climate change research (e.g. AIACC project
AF07) – used by Madagascar and other countries for national
communications
• Training of scientists from selected institutions (focal points)ACMAD and others
• ACMAD PRECIS workshop (2006) for scientists on START
program for studies on impact of climate change on Lake
Victoria
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Recent past PRECIS African activities
• Stronger interactions with UNFCCC, UNDP & UNEP secretariat
and processes
• Re-define focus to include/integrate climate science/modelling and
applications to impacts, vulnerability and adaptation studies
• Developments in ICT and PRECIS code led to design of more
complex/robust experimentations – addition of more GCMs/LBCs
• West African workshop in (Ghana, 2006) led to establishment of
W.A. user-network – capacity for WAMME, AMMA, CIFOR and
related activities
• Eastern/Central African workshop (ICPAC/Nairobi, 2007) - capacity
for AFRMIP,WCRP/World Bank and related research for GHA
region
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Current outputs from the PRECIS
Programme
 Detailed climate scenarios using the UKCIP02 methodology
for the main developing country regions
 Detailed simulation of the recent climate (last 50 years) for
many developing country regions
 Basic capacity building and technology transfer enabling
mitigation and adaptation activities via:
• scientific and technical support for applying PRECIS to scenario
development and climate research
• ad hoc advice on using scenarios in impacts assessments, developing
collaborations and research proposals
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Capacity building and
collaborations
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Activities are initiated via PRECIS
workshops
 PRECIS workshops focus on:
• Background science including uncertainties
• Interpretation of PRECIS results by regional experts
• Construction of regional climate change scenarios
• Building capacity in countries/regions using PRECIS
 PRECIS is supplied with:
• a handbook covering the background science, system description and
the uses and limitations of PRECIS
• a technical manual explaining technical details about the system and
how to install and to use it
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Current user/network/project status
 Over 60 trained users from over 30 countries from workshops
in S. Africa, UK (x5), Ghana, Kenya and others (adhocs)
 Developing country & regional networks across Africa
 Projects and focal points: South Africa (UCT), Eastern &
Central Africa (Kenya-ICPAC), West Africa (B. Faso-CIFOR,
Niger-ACMAD/Univ. N., Ghana-GMA)
 Links with international agencies (UNFCCC, UNDP, UNEP)
 Strengthened scientific capacities in regions/countries for
participation in international projects (AMMA, WAMME,
AFRMIP, RIPIESCSA, CCAA, ACCA)
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Current user/network/project status
 Development of concept note with UNEP for an AfricaCIP
based on UKCIP methodologies for NWP– for discussion with
DEFRA & DFID
 Ongoing WCRP/WorldBank/ICPAC capacity dev. program
 Development of project proposal for IDRC Eco-health
program – Onchocercaisis (Noguchi Med. Research (Ghana),
ISSER (Ghana) and Uni. Greenwich (UK)
 Development of concept note for a project on water
resources of the Volta Basin - 5 W.A. countries, IDS (Sussex)
and Hadley Centre – to be submitted to DFID & DEFRA
 Development of concept notes on Impacts of climate change
on forest resources in Africa with CIFOR (Burkina Faso)
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Climate research and climate
scenario development
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Summer daily temperature changes
from PRECIS: 2080s
Minimum
Change in mean
minimum
Subtropical
Tropical
Equatorial
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Change in mean
maximum
Maximum
Precipitation estimates over Eastern
Africa
NCEP-Reanalysis
July rainfall 2080 -B2
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PRECIS
July rainfall 2080 -A2
Current climate (1961-1990)
Captures the regional
rainfall pattern along the
East African steep
topography and Red
Sea area
Future projections: 2080s
Increased rainfall
(1.5mm/day) over the
domain for both A2 & B2
More areas in A2 would
experience higher rainfall
increases
Engaging PRECIS users in West Africa:
WAMME, AMMA & ENSEMBLES Initiatives
WAMME experimental design
Surface temp (1961-1990):a-HadRM;b-NCEP
Actively engaging African partners in
state-of-the-art international projects
ensures critical local capacities for their
participation in future projects (e.g.
AfricaCIP/CLIMDEV)
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Awareness raising and
impacts research
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RCMs simulate extreme events
e.g. tropical cyclones
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Data provision and analysis system for
Africa (e.g from Caribbean/S. America)
Web interface for the PRECIS online access system
PRECIS, WAMME and
AFRMIP websites provide
useful information (but limited).
Future online system similar to
PRECIS Caribbean/S.
American online system
should facilitate data sharing,
collaboration and awareness
raising.
Tracking of pressure systems. Tool for
investigating storms & extreme events.
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Outlook for future activities
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The NWP-WCRP focus
• Improve regional climate projection capabilities on variety of
timescales – seasonal to decadal via joint activities with
Climate Outlook Forum (COF)
• Achieve prediction resolution and skill in IPCC-employed
climate models – e.g. WAMME, ENSEMBLES, AFRMIP
• Ensemble assessment to increase the level of confidence in
climate projection by providing probability density functions
(PDFs) of climate variables – porting UKCIP methodologies
for AfricaCIP
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The NWP-WCRP focus (C’td)
• Promote more downscaling intercomparison expts. to
provide users with indices of credibility of regionalized
projections – WAMME, ENSEMBLES, AFRMIP
• Provide climate projections, archive and access training to
increase pool of available climate projections and Africawide community of knowledgeable users
• Develop metrics of regional value including phenomenabased adequacy of regionalised projections
• Exploit expert opinion for African regional climate
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Questions and answers
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