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Climate Research in Malta
An Overview of Activities
Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert Bonnici
Department of Physics
Erin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4th November 2010
Overview
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•
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• Recent Work
Timeline
• MedCLIVAR
Workshop
The Models
Capacity Building • Current Projects
st Climate
•
1
Models’
Summer School
Performance
• MCT plans
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Timeline
MedCLIVAR
Workshop 1
2
0
0
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PRECIS 1.7.1
installation
& testing
PRECIS
1.8.2
update
RegCM4
Workshop
PRECIS
Sulfate
Research
2
0
0
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WRF
installation
2
0
1
0
2
0
0
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MedCLIVAR
Workshop 2
PRECIS
Workshop
PRECIS
license
2 undergraduate;
1 MSc student
PRECIS 1.7.1
operational;
3 undergraduate
students
MCT
PRECIS
1.9.1
update
1st Climate
Summer
School
RegCM4
testing
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Introduction to the Models
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PRECIS
Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies
PRECIS has been developed and disseminated with funding from the:
o UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA),
o UK Department for International Development (DFID),
o UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)
o United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and
o the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)
• PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system.
• To help generate high-resolution climate change information for many regions.
• The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups of developing countries.
• These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies.
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PRECIS
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PRECIS
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RegCM4
RegCM4
PRECIS
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License-based
MOSES 1 & 2.2 LSMs
Different Schemes
o Planetary Boundary Layer
o Radiation
o Precipitation
o Chemistry model (Sulfate)
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Community-based
BATS & CLM LSMs
Different Schemes
o Planetary Boundary Layer
o Radiation
o Precipitation
o Chemistry model (Dust, Sulfate,
Organic Carbon, Black Carbon)
o Clouds
o Ocean Flux
o Pressure Gradient Force
Lake model
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RegCM4
Malta in Climate Models
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WRF
Numerical Weather Prediction Model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
• Is a next-generation mesoscale model designed to serve both
operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs.
• It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-D variational (3DVAR) data
assimilation system.
• A software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and
system extensibility.
• WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales
going down to 1 km.
• Has an easy to use GUI and excellent for training in meteorology.
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WRF
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WRF
[Source: National Observatory of Athens]
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WRF
• Collaborative research
o University of Aveiro & University of Lisbon
• BSc (Hons) 3rd year projects
o Examples:
• Dynamics of Hurricane Katrina 2005
• Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean
• Attraction between Cities and Cyclones
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Capacity Building
Workstations
2 Proc.
4 Proc.
ALBERT
768 Proc.
• PRECIS on 2 nodes
(Limited to 12 Proc. per
simulation)
• RegCM4 (runs on MPI)
• WRF installed & in testing
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Models’ Performance
Considering a 30 year simulation,
Europe, 50 km: 100x100 cells
• PRECIS
o Computer 4 (2P): ~39 days
o Computer 2 (4P): ~16 days
o Computer Cluster (12P): ~11 days
• RegCM4
o Computer Cluster: ~8 days
• WRF: in testing phase
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Recent Work
PRECIS
• Undergraduate Projects 2009/10
o Validation of the model in the Mediterranean (and
surrounding) region from different perspectives.
• Vertical Levels (Nadine Napoli)
• Climate Zones (Denise M. Cilia)
• Sulfate Aerosols (James Ciarlo`)
• Current Research
o Evaluation of the Chemistry model (Noel Aquilina, James Ciarlo`)
• Undergraduate Projects 2010/11
o Study of the ENSO around Australia (Candy Spiteri)
o Comparative study of PRECIS’s LSMs (William Healey)
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Undergraduate Projects 2009/10
Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the Mediterranean
CLImate VARiability project) that coordinates and
promotes the study of the Mediterranean climate
Why the Mediterranean Basin?
• Enclosed by 3 major continents.
• Surrounded almost entirely by
mountains.
• Very unique and sensitive to
climate changes.
Simulation details
• GCM-HadAM3P
• PRECIS (v 1.7.1) used
• 1960-1990
• Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)
• 100 x 100 cells
• 57°N-18°N
• 16°W-46°E
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PRECIS: Validation
Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model
Comparison of Measured and Modelled data
ESRL
Solar Radiation at
Surface Level
1960-1990 Average
PRECIS
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PRECIS: Validation
Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model
Comparison of Measured and Modelled data
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PRECIS: Vertical Layers
Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the
atmosphere against Radiosonde data
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Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)
PRECIS: Climate Zones
Evaluation of temperature and precipitation within
different climate zones
Temperature
Total Precipitation Rate
P
R
E
C
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S
M
O
N
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T
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R
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N
G
1960-1990
Average
S
T
A
T
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N
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Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
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Future Projections
Temperature IS INCREASING
Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
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Future Projections
Total Precipitation Rate IS DECREASING
Is this natural variability or climate change? – MORE RESEARCH
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Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol
Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate
Aerosols in the Atmosphere
1960-1990
Average
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Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)
PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol
Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate
Aerosol in the Atmosphere
Parameter
Max Bias Mean Bias Min Bias
Surface Temperature
1.59
0.82
0.05
Solar Radiation
-6.99
-10.45
-15.63
Thermal Radiation
3.77
1.01
-1.37
1960-1990
Daily Temperature RangeAverage
-0.32
-1.98
-3.52
Convective Precipitation
-1.48
-3.08
-5.80
Relative Humidity
-3.01
-5.46
-8.38
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Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)
ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop
23rd-25th September 2010
ICTP, Trieste
Workshop on: Scenarios of Mediterranean Climate Change under
Increased Radiative Active Gas Concentration and the Role of Aerosols.
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PRECIS: Current Research
Aquilina N.J., Ciarlo` J.M. (2010). “Validation of PRECIS: Effect of sulfate aerosols in the
atmosphere”. In preparation for submission in Climatic Change.
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Undergraduate Projects 2010/11
Scope: Established & strengthening ties with CSIRO
(Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research
Organization) and comparing results with their model,
CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model)
Why Australia?
• Large variety of different climates
• Complex island system in the ITCZ
Simulation details:
• GCM-HadAM3Q0/ECHAM5
• PRECIS (v 1.9.1) used
• 1960-1990/ 1990-2020
• Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)
• 174 x 150 cells
• 22°N-49°S
• 83°E-166°E
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LSM Project
PRECIS 1.7.1
MOSES I
1960-1990 Sulfate Aitken mode
PRECIS 1.9.1
MOSES 2.2
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ENSO Project
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MSc using RegCM4
Study of interaction between Oscillation Patterns around
Europe and their influence on aerosol transportation.
Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
NAO-
NAO+
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Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
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Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
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st
1
Climate Summer School
• 8 Students attended
• Day 1: Introduction to
Meteorology I
• Day 2: Introduction to
Meteorology II
• Day 3: Data Mining; Post
Processing Software installation
• Day 4: Using Panoply data
viewer; Introduction to PRECIS
• Day 5: The PRECIS outputs
• Day 6: Introduction to NCL
• 2nd Climate Summer School
o New Models (RegCM4, WRF)
o Handle PP Software (NCL, IDV)
o Mini-Project
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Immediate Plans
• Gain more experience
o Climate Research, Different Models, Climate Statistics
• Encourage more people to work in the MCT
o Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Programmers, and
Statisticians.
o There is a lot of data available to be analysed – summer
research experiences are available
• Prepare interested students through new studyunits.
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New Study-Units
Fundamentals of
Meteorology
Study Aims
• Scientific understanding
of meteorology
• Physics of weather
systems
• Distinguishing and
identifying weather
systems from climate
data
• Applying meteorology to
climate research
A Multidisciplinary
approach to Climate
Research
Study Aims
• Scientific understanding
of climate
• Operating climate
models
• Post-processing
• Using appropriate
Statistical methods
• Hands-on experience to
climate research
Hopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12
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Long-Term Plans
• Collaborative and MSc / PhD / post-doc research
o Development of part of the chemical model with ICTP
o Needed:
• Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Statisticians, Programmers
• Associated projects
o Studying long range transport of pollutants
o Evaluate different schemes
o Apply different statistical treatments to climate data
o Testing out new code
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International Collaborations
Sponsored by:
• International Council for Science (ICSU)
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
• Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO
The two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determine:
• the predictability of climate
• the effect of human activities on climate
These underpin & directly address the needs of the UNFCCC.
A multi-disciplinary approach:
• Organizes large-scale observational and modelling projects
• Facilitates focus on aspects of climate too large and complex to be addressed by
any one nation or single scientific discipline
The 2005-2015 WCRP strategy will promote the creation of comprehensive and reliable
global climate observations and models
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CORDEX
COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment
CORDEX is intended to organize an international coordinated framework.
• To produce an improved generation of regional climate change
projections world-wide
• To use results for input into impact and adaptation studies within the AR5
timeline and beyond
MED-CORDEX will make use of both regional atmospheric climate models and
regional coupled systems.
• Developing new experiments to test new components and improved
schemes, based on the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean
Experiment) field campaign outcomes (long term simulations)
CORDEX WRF-Community:
This would give an opportunity to produce multi-physics experiments, as
opposite (an in addition) to the multi-model experiments.
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CORDEX
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The MCT on the Web
UoM-Physics Webpage:
http://www.um.edu.mt/science/
physics/climate_studies
Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/grou
p.php?gid=155998907759229
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Acknowledgements
Nick Archer
Charles V Sammut
Louis Zammit Mangion
Pierre-Sandre Farrugia
Denis Cutajar
Adam Gauci
Alessio Magro
Shawn Cassar
http://um.edu.mt/science/physics
Simon Tucker
Chloe Morrell
David Hein
David Hassell
http://precis.metoffice.com/
Marcus Thatcher
Jack Katzfey
John McGregor
http://cmar.csiro.au
Graziano Giuliani
Stefano Cozzini
http://portal.ictp.it/esp/research/espmodels/regcm3
Mary Hailey
Dennis Shea
http://ncar.ucar.edu/
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Thank You
MALTA CLIMATE TEAM
W: http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/research/climate_studies
E: [email protected]
T: +356 2340 3036
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