Transcript Policy Assumptions for the ET2050 scenarios by Michael Wegener

ET2050
Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe
Policy Assumptions for ET2050
Baseline and Exploratory Scenarios
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Regional policy
The allocation of EU regional policy expenditures is the
outcome of a negotiation process between EU member
states and, within EU member states, regional and local
governments and stakeholders.
It is not possible in the ET2050 project to realistically model
the complexity of this process.
It is therefore proposed to capture the essential properties
of the allocation process by a simple meta-model based on
allocation patterns in the 2007-2013 funding period.
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Regional policy
EU regional policy
expenditures are
organised in three
EU funds:
- Cohesion Fund
(CF): 20%*
CF
20%
- European Social Fund
(SF): 22%*
- European Regional
Development Fund
(ERDF): 58%*
* in 2007-2013
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ESF
22%
ERDF
58%
Regional policy
Cohesion Fund
2014-2020:
Three levels of
eligibility:
Less developed
regions (<75% of
average GDP/cap)
Transition regions
(75-90% of
average GDP/cap)
More developed
regions (>90% of
average GDP/cap)
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Regional policy
Regional policy expenditures
2007-2013 as percent of GDP
Convergence regions
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Phasing-out regions
Phasing-in regions
Competitiveness and
employment regions
GDP per capita 2005 (1,000 Euro)
Regional policy
It is proposed that regional policy expenditures in the ET2050
scenarios will be specified as follows:
- All three regional policy funds will be treated together.
- Total regional policy expenditures will be forecast as a
percentage of total EU GDP:
- All scenarios 2010: 0.4%
- Scenario A (MEGAs) 2050: 0.2% (alternative: 0.0%)
- Scenario B (Cities) 2050: 0.4%
- Scenario C (Regions) 2050: 0.7% (alternative: 1.0%)
- In the Baseline Scenario regional policy expenditures will
be allocated to NUTS-2 regions as a function of GDP per
capita as in the 2007-2013 funding period (see last slide).
- In Scenarios A, B and C extra weight in the allocation will
be given to the regions promoted in each scenario.
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Transport policy
The new TEN-T Guidelines proposes a core network to be
completed by 2030 and a comprehensive network to be
completed by 2050.
Decision making about the implementation of the core and
comprehensive networks is the outcome of a negotiation
process between member states and, within the member
states, regional and local governments and stakeholders.
It is not possible in the ET2050 project to realistically model
the complexity of this process.
It is therefore proposed to capture the essential properties
of the transport policy process by a simple meta-model.
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Transport policy
Rail
Road
It is proposed to adopt the implementation of the trans-European networks
(TEN-T) of the TRANSVISIONS baseline scenario for all ET2050 scenarios.
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Transport policy
It is proposed that transport infrastructure projects in the
ET2050 scenarios will be specified as follows:
- In all four scenarios the implementation of the trans-European
networks (TEN-T) of the TRANSVISIONS baseline scenario will be
adopted.
- In addition, in Scenarios A, B and C the transport corridors connecting the regions to be promoted will be made faster (see next
slide).
In all four scenarios fuel prices rise moderately as in the Baseline
Scenario. The spatial effects of possible future energy scarcity and
resulting strong fuel price increases will be assessed in a separate
"energy and climate" variant of the four scenarios.
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Transport policy
Scenario A
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Scenario B
Other policies
Other relevant policy fields with potential spatial impacts are
- Agricultural policy
- Environmental policy
- R&D policy
These policies will be dealt with using similar methods as the
regional policies and transport policies discussed.
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