Transcript State of the art of the MASST model

SPATIAL SCENARIOS AND ORIENTATIONS IN
RELATION TO THE ESDP AND EU COHESION
POLICY (2004-06)
Roberto Camagni e Roberta Capello
Politecnico di Milano
ESPON National Meeting, 18 Gennaio 2005
Project 3.2
Lead Partner: Free University of Brussels - IGEAT
Project Parners:
Politecnico di Milano
AETS – Agence Européenne “Territoire et Synergie”
BBR
University of Leeds – CUDEM
CRS – HAS – Hungarian Academy of Science
MCRIT – Spagna
NISR – Paesi Bassi
NORDREGIO
UMS 2414 – Réseau Interdisciplinaire pour l’Amenagement
Aims of the project:
To synthetise all data and information collected in
ESPON projects and on the basis of this information
to build territorial scenarios on possible and
(un)desirable futures in order to deduce policy
recommandations
Two parallel scenario approaches:
- A qualitative scenario approach
- A quantitative scenario approach
The qualitative scenario approach
Past trends in each strategic macro-theme (i.e.
demography, economy, energy, etc..)
Thematic scenarios. In each theme there will
different scenarios according to different driving
forces
Cross-thematic scenarios
Thematic scenarios on:
Demography (2)
Economy (4)
Energy (1)
Transport (3)
Enlargement (4)
Governance (4)
Rural development (2)
Environment (2)
Socio-cultural issue (not yet studied)
-
Examples of driving forces for the thematic
scenarios:
Demography:
More or less restrictions on immigration;
Impact of immigration on activity rate and skills of
population
Economy:
External competition and globalisation will continue
Four possible policy developments
(competitiveness and equity; equity; laissez-faire –
competitiveness within European regions –
competitiveness);
Present situation
Past trends developed
Thematic scenario sketches – development in 2005.
Cross-thematic scenarios – next year
The quantitative scenario approaches
To measure the effects on territory - in terms of
efficiency and cohesion – of some qualitative
cross-thematic scenarios (MASST Model);
To measure European Territorial Cohesion Index
(ETCI);
To predict future flows of people and goods in order
to identify future transport bottlenecks (KTEN
model).
MASST Model
MASST is an econometric model estimating the
determinants of local development and its forecasts.
Local development is divided into two components,
the national component and the local differential shift
component. The Masst model estimates both of them.
The structure of the model is represeted in the
following chart:
Conceptual underpinnings
Driving forces
(scenario elements)
Enlargement
Macreconomic elements
Structural
macroeconomic
elements
Territorial context
Territorial filters:
Economic effects
Regional differetial
component
Outcomes
geographical
position and
productive structure
Socio-cultural
changes
Regional
development and
imbalance
New technological
paradigms
Short term
macroeconomic
elements
Policies
National component
Submodel 2: Regional differential component
Submodel 1: National component
Regional structural
elements
Macroeconomic elements
Structural policies
National component
Δ Efficiency wage
(inflation and productivity
increases)
Exports
PAC
National growth
- attractiveness
- economic success
Population
Hhuman capital
policies
Internal consumption
Exchange rate
movements
€ / $, national currencies
Human
capital
Infrastructural policies
Investments
(including FDI)
Interest rates
Institutional distance
Regional differential
component
Public expenditure
Infrastructural level
Innovative policies
Innovative capacity
Differential shift
Imports
Capital / labour ratio
Accessibility
Final economic effect
Macroeconomic
policies
Territorial context
Regional growth
- attractiveness
- economic success
- spatial spillovers
Geographical position
Urban structure
Regional equity
disparities
Productive structure
Driving forces
- macroeconomic
- technological
- institutional
-socio-cultural
Macroeconomic driving forces
-trend in the euro/$ exchange rate
-trend in fiscal morality (trend in public debts, revision of the Maastricht
parameters)
-trend in interest rates
- trend in inflation rate
-geo-political orientation of FDI
-rebalancing of external accounts of big emerging countries (China, etc..)
-increase in energy price
Technological driving forces
- Infrastructure development
-R&D development
-New technological paradigm
Institutional driving forces
-Enlargement
-Restructuring of Community Agricultural Policy
-Reorientation and size of structural funds
-Attitude towards East-West and North-South
migration
Socio-cultural driving forces
-Trend in fertility rate
-Trend in population aging
-Trend in saving ratio
Characteristics of scenarios
based on MASST
- the results of the exercise will be territorial scenarios (at NUTS2 level);
- each scenario will be based on general driving forces;
-single driving force impact forecasts will be produced;
- the MASST scenarios will be the result of a combination of different
hypotheses on the driving forces;
-each scenario will be the result of a cause-effect chain, which will
influence variables of different nature (demographic, technological,
macroeconomic);
-a limited number of scenarios will be produced;
Present situation
- Database in cross-section and time-series
nearly completed;
- Model specification
Future steps
- Model calibration;
- Identification of the scenario hypotheses;
- Scenario estimates.