Transcript ET2050_SASI_080213

ET2050
The SASI Model
Michael Wegener
ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Milan, 7-8 February 2013
The SASI Model
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The SASI model
There are three methods to model the impacts of
policies on regional economic development:
• Multiplier effects of infrastructure invest
ments (Aschauer, 1993)
• Regional production functions incorporating
infrastructure as production factor
(Jochimsen, 1966; Biehl, 1986, 1991)
• Interregional trade flows as a function of
interregional transport costs (Peschel, 1981;
Bröcker, 1995) and inputoutput linkages
(Echenique, 1990) and economies of scale
(Krugman, Venables,1995)
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The SASI model
The SASI model is a recursivedynamic simulation
model of socioeconomic development of regions in
Europe under assumptions about
• European economic development and
external net migration
• European transport policies (TEN-T)
and regional subsidies (EFRE, CAP)
The SASI model differs from other regional economic
models by modelling not only production (the
demand side of regional labour markets) but also
population (the supply side of labour markets).
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Regional production function
In stateoftheart models of regional development
based on production functions the classic production
factors land, labour and capital are replaced by
location factors, such as:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Economic structure
Productivity
Accessibility
Labour supply
Services
Settlement structure
Research and development
Education
Quality of life
Regional production function
Extended production function:
Land


Production
Accessibility


Qi  Li Ri K i Ai ...
Labour
Others
Capital
where Ai is potential accessibility:
Destinations
in region j
Accessibility
of region i
Ai  W j exp (   cij )
j
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Travel cost between
regions i and j
Regional net migration function
Net migration function:
Net
migration
of region i
in year t
Attractiveness
as place to work
 q i (t  3 )

mi (t )   
 1.5   
 q (t  3 )

Attractiveness
as place to live
 v i (t  3 )


 1.5 
 v (t  3 )

where
• qi(t–3) is GDP per capita of region i
• q(t-3) is average European GDP per capita
• vi(t–3) is quality of life of region i
• v(t-3) is average European quality of life
… all lagged by three years
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SASI
model
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Transfer
policies
Transport
policies
Production
function
Accessibility
Migration
function
GDP
Income
Population
Employment
Unemploy
ment
Labour
force
Regions
SASI
model
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The AlpenCors Project:
a Regional Application
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The AlpenCorS project (20042005)
The Interreg III B programme "Alpine Space"
(20002006) aimed at developing a concept for
economic and spatial development in the pan
European Corridor V between France, Italy,
Slovenia and Austria.
The project AlpenCorS ("Alpen Corridor South")
focused on the central segment of the corridors
south of the Alps. The SASI model was to assess
the effects of the intersection with Corridor I,
the Brenner Corridor.
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GDP per capita (EU27+2 = 100)
Scenario 000
2021
Reference Scenario
Strasbourg 
Wien 
München 
 Zürich
 Bolzano
 Trento
 Lyon
 Milano
 Torino
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 Ljubljana
 Venezia
Accessibility road/rail/air travel
Scenario AS1
000 v. 000
2021
Reference
Brenner tunnel
Scenario
effect
Strasbourg 
Strasbourg
Wien 
Wien
München 
München
Zürich
 Zürich
Bolzano
 Bolzano
Trento
 Trento
 Lyon
Milano
 Milano
Torino
 Torino
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Ljubljana
 Ljubljana
Venezia
 Venezia
GDP
per capita
(EU27+2
Accessibility
road
freight= 100)
Scenario AS1 v. 000
2021
Brenner tunnel effect
Strasbourg 
Wien 
München 
 Zürich
 Bolzano
 Trento
 Lyon
 Milano
 Torino
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 Ljubljana
 Venezia
The STEPs Project:
a European Application
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The STEPs project (20042006)
The EU 6th RTD Framework project STEPs
(Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy
Supply and their Potential Effects) developed and
assessed possible scenarios for the EU transport
system and energy supply of the future.
In the project five urban/regional models were
applied to forecast the longterm economic, social and
environmental impacts of different scenarios of fuel
price increases and different combinations of
infrastructure, technology and demand
regulation policies.
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STEPs Scenarios
The scenarios combined three rates of energy price
increases with three sets of policies:
2030
2030
2030
Fuel
increase
1.60
€* price3.33
€*
6.80 €*
+1% p.a. +4% p.a. +7% p.a.
Donothing
A1
B1
C1
Business as usual
A0
B0
C0
Infrastructure & technology
A1
B1
C1
Demand regulation
A23.35 €* B26.95 €* C2 23.25 €*
All policies
A3
2030
* € of 2008 per litre
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2030
2030
B3
C3
A1 Reference Scenario
European policy scenarios
A1C1 Infrastructure and technology
Petrol/Diesel per km (down to 4 % p.a.)
Alternative vehicles/fuels (up to 33 %)
European rail speed (up to +2 % p.a.)
Regional rail speed (up to +1.7 % p.a.)
Rail freight speed (up to +2 % p.a.)
A2C2 Demand regulation
Fuel tax (up to +5 % p.a.)
Kerosene tax (up to 200 % of petrol tax)
Road pricing (up to +10 % p.a.)
Public transport fares (down to 1.7 % p.a.)
Car/lorry cost per km (up to +3 % p.a.)
Rail freight cost (down to 1.5 % p.a.)
A3C3 All policies
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Scenario A1
A1
Accessibility
road/rail/air
travel (million)
in year 2031
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
19
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
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Scenario A1
Accessibility
road/rail/air
travel
Difference from
ScenarioA1
2031 (%)
40 50
30 40
20 30
10 20
0 10
10
0
20 10
30 20
40 30
50 40
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Scenario B1
Accessibility
road/rail/air
travel
Difference from
ScenarioA1
2031 (%)
40 50
30 40
20 30
10 20
0 10
10
0
20 10
30 20
40 30
50 40
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Scenario C1
Accessibility
road/rail/air
travel
Difference from
ScenarioA1
2031 (%)
40 50
30 40
20 30
10 20
0 10
10
0
20 10
30 20
40 30
50 40
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Scenario A1
GDP per capita
2031 (€ of 2005)
54
48
42
36
30
24
18
12
6
0
23
60
54
48
42
36
30
24
18
12
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Scenario A1
GDP per capita
Difference from
Scenario A1
2031 (%)
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
24
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
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Scenario B1
GDP per capita
Difference from
Scenario A1
2031 (%)
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
25
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
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Scenario C1
GDP per capita
Difference from
Scenario A1
2031 (%)
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
26
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
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The SASI Model in ET2050
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Ongoing model developments
• Extension of forecasting horizon from 2030 to
2050
• Conversion of the region system to the 2006
NUTS3 classification
• Higher spatial resolution in Croatia and other
Western Balkan countries
• Simple model of longdistance passenger and
freight transport
• Calculation of environmental indicators as
energy consumption and CO2 emissions of
transport
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Questions answered
How will European
• infrastructure investments (TENT)
• regional subsidies (EFRE, CAP)
• rising energy costs
affect
•
•
•
•
•
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regional economic development,
regional population/migration,
interregional travel and goods flows,
energy consumption/CO2 emissions,
territorial cohesion and polycentricity?
Baseline Scenario
The Baseline Scenario for 2030 and 2050 is based
on BAU assumptions about
•
•
•
•
European
European
European
European
economic development,
net migration,
transport policies,
regional subsidies.
and will produce forecasts of:
•
•
•
•
•
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regional economic development,
regional population/migration,
interregional travel and goods flows,
energy consumption/CO2 emissions,
territorial cohesion and polycentricity.
A Scenarios ("MEGAs")
The exploratory A Scenarios ("MEGAs") will differ
from the baseline scenario by assumptions about
European transport policies and regional
subsidies that support the concentration of
economic activities and population in the major
metropolitan areas and will forecast:
•
•
•
•
•
•
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European economic development,
regional economic development,
regional population/migration,
interregional travel and goods flows,
energy consumption/CO2 emissions,
territorial cohesion and polycentricity.
B Scenarios ("Cities")
The exploratory B Scenarios ("Cities") will differ
from the baseline scenario by assumptions about
European transport policies and regional
subsidies that support the concentration of
economic activities and population in the major
European cities and will forecast:
•
•
•
•
•
•
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European economic development,
regional economic development,
regional population/migration,
interregional travel and goods flows,
energy consumption/CO2 emissions,
territorial cohesion and polycentricity
C Scenarios ("Regions")
The exploratory C Scenarios ("Regions") will differ
from the baseline scenario by assumptions about
European transport policies and regional
subsidies that support the development of
economic activities and population in small
towns and rural regions and will forecast:
•
•
•
•
•
•
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European economic development,
regional economic development,
regional population/migration,
interregional travel and goods flows,
energy consumption/CO2 emissions,
territorial cohesion and polycentricity
Exploratory scenarios
In addition to the criteria for the definition of scenarios
proposed above, also other criteria might be applied to
define the exploratory scenarios:
• They should be differentiated in space, i.e. address
the European, national and regional scale.
• They should be differentiated in time, i.e. account for
different phases of development of countries.
• They should be combined with the same framework
assumptions as the baseline scenario.
• In addition, they can be combined with alternative
framework assumptions.
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Alternative framework conditions
The exploratory scenarios using the same framework
conditions as the Baseline Scenario can be combined
with alternative framework conditions:
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Ranking of scenarios
It is very likely that the exploratory scenarios perform
differently with respect to major goals of the EU:
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Results (1)
• Population indicators: Population by age, sex,
nationality, labour force participation, education,
net migration and net commuting by NUTS3 region
per year
• Economic indicators: GDP by industry, by worker,
by capita, employment by industry and unemployment by NUTS3 region per year
• Accessibility indicators: Accessibility by type
(travel/goods) and mode (road/rail, road/rail/air)
by NUTS3 region per year
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Results (2)
• Transport indicators: Travel and goods flows
between NUTS3 regions by mode per year.
• Environmental indictors: Energy consumption
and CO2 emissions of transport between NUTS3
region per year.
• Cohesion indicators: Cohesion and polycentricity
indicators of accessibility and GDP per capita of
NUTS3 regions per year
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Typical graphical output
• Timeseries diagrams
by country or macro region
by scenario
• Maps
indicators by NUTS3 region by year
indicator differences between scenarios by
NUTS3 region per year
• 3D surfaces
indicators by NUTS3 region per year
differences between scenarios by NUTS3
region per year
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More information
Wegener, M., Bökemann, D. (1998): SASI Model: Model
Structure. Berichte aus dem Institut für Raumplanung 40.
Dortmund: Institute of Spatial Planning, University of
Dortmund. http://www.raumplanung.unidortmund.de/irpud/
fileadmin/irpud/content/documents/publications/ber40.pdf.
Wegener, M. (2008): SASI Model Description. Working
Paper 08/01. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Stadt
und Regionalforschung. http://www.spiekermannwegener.
de/mod/pdf/AP_0801.pdf.
Fiorello, D., Huismans, G., López, E., Marques, C., Steen
berghen, T., Wegener, M., Zografos, G. (2006): Transport
Strategies under the Scarcity of Energy Supply. Final
Report of the EU project STEPs – Scenarios for the Transport
and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects, edited by A.
Monzon and A. Nuijten. Den Haag: Buck Consultants
International. http://www.stepseu.com/reports.htm.
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