Transcript ET2050 European Territorial Scenarios modelled by SASI

ET2050
European Territorial Scenarios
modelled by SASI
Klaus Spiekermann and Michael Wegener
ESPON 2013 Programme Workshop
Territorial Vision for Europe towards 2050
Brussels, 11 October 2013
The SASI Model
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The SASI model
The SASI model is a recursive-dynamic simulation
model of socioeconomic development of regions in
Europe under assumptions about
• European economic development and
external net migration,
• European transport policies (TEN-T),
• regional subsidies (ERDF, EAFRD, ESF, CF).
The SASI model differs from other regional economic
models by modelling not only production (the
demand side of regional labour markets) but also
population (the supply side of labour markets)
and travel and freight transport flows.
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SASI
model
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Transfer
policies
Transport
policies
Production
function
Accessibility
Migration
function
GDP
Income
Population
Employment
Unemploy
ment
Labour
force
Questions answered in ET2050
How will different spatial orientations of European
• infrastructure investments (TEN-T)
• regional subsidies (ERDF, EAFRD, ESF, CF)
affect
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•
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regional economic development,
regional population/migration,
interregional travel and freight flows,
territorial cohesion and polycentricity,
energy consumption/CO2 emissions?
Baseline and Exploratory Scenarios
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Baseline Scenario
The Baseline Scenario for 2030 and 2050 is based
on BAU assumptions about
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•
•
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European
European
European
European
economic development,
net migration,
regional subsidies,
transport policies.
and produces forecasts of:
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•
•
•
•
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regional economic development,
regional population/migration,
interregional travel and goods flows,
energy consumption/CO2 emissions,
territorial cohesion and polycentricity.
Exploratory Scenarios
The definition of the SASI exploratory scenarios is
based on the same region typology as used by the
MASST and MULTIPOLES models but translated into
NUTS-3 regions:
• In the MEGAs Scenario A large European metropolitan areas are promoted in the interest of competitiveness and economic growth.
• In the Cities Scenario B major European cities are
promoted in order to strengthen the balanced polycentric spatial structure of the European territory.
• In the Regions Scenario C rural and peripheral
regions are promoted to advance territorial cohesion
between affluent and economically lagging regions.
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Exploratory Scenarios
In the SASI exploratory scenarios A, B and C the
assumptions about total European development and
European net migration remain the same as in the
Baseline Scenario.
However, the exploratory scenarios differ in their
assumptions about
• the allocation of EU Structural Funds subsidies
(see next slide),
• European transport policies (see three following
slides).
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Exploratory
scenarios:
Structural
Funds
The
A (MEGAs)
B (Cities)
Baseline Scenario
C (Regions)
1.0 %
0.5
0.25%
of total EU
Structural
Funds
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Scenario A:
Network
improvements
(if necessary)
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MEGA
Connections
between MEGAs
not more than
500 km apart.
Minimum
speed:
Road: 90 km/h
Rail: 200 km/h
Scenario B:
Network
improvements
(if necessary)
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City
Baseline Scenario
Connections
between cities
not more than
300 km apart.
Minimum
speed:
Road: 80 km/h
Rail: 160 km/h
Scenario C:
Network
improvements
(if necessary)
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Region
Baseline Scenario
Connections
between regions
and MEGAs/Cities
not more than
200 km apart.
Minimum
speed:
Road: 65 km/h
Rail: 80 km/h
Scenario results
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Baseline Scenario:
Accessibility travel
road/rail
2036
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2041
2046
2051
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Baseline
Scenario:
GDP per
capita
2051
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GDP per capita
(1000 € of 2010)
Scenario A:
GDP per capita
Difference
to Baseline
Scenario
2051
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Difference to
Baseline Scenario
(%) 2051
Scenario B:
GDP per capita
Difference
to Baseline
Scenario
2051
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Difference to
Baseline Scenario
(%) 2051
Scenario C:
GDP per capita
Difference
to Baseline
Scenario
2051
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Difference to
Baseline Scenario
(%) 2051
Scenario variants
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Scenario variants
In addition, the Baseline Scenario and the exploratory
scenarios A, B and C are combined with alternative
framework conditions:
1. Economic decline. Globalisation will lead to
stagnation and almost decline of the European
economy (only +0.62 % GDP growth p.a.)
2. Technology advance. Innovations will result in significant growth in labour productivity (+1.94 % p.a.)
and energy efficiency of transport (+0.75 % p.a.).
3. Energy/climate. Rising energy costs and/or greenhouse gas emission taxes will lead to strong growth
of production and transport costs (+5 % p.a.).
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Scenario variants
The combination of the exploratoy scenarios and
the variants leads to nine additional scenarios:
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Scenario comparison
Remaining
East-West
gap: GDP
per capita
EU15/EU12
(1,000 Euro
of 2010)
1981-2051
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Scenario comparison
Declining
overall
regional
disparities:
Gini
coefficient
of GDP per
capita
1981-2051
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Scenario comparison
Dynamic
urban
structures
in EU12:
National
polycentricity
index
1981-2051
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Scenario comparison
Increase
in energy
efficiency
& share of
renewable
energy:
CO2 emission
by transport
per capita
p.a. (t)
1981-2051
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Conclusions
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Summary comparison
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Conclusions
The comparison of scenarios with respect to the three
major EU goals gives a straightforward result:
• Competitiveness: The A scenarios (MEGAs) produce
the largest growth in GDP. The C scenarios (Regions)
perform worst in terms of overall economic growth.
The B scenarios (Cities) lie in between.
• Cohesion: The C scenarios perform best in terms of
cohesion and polycentricity. The A scenarios slow the
convergence down. The B scenarios lie in between.
• Sustainability: The B scenarios are most successful
environmentally. The A and C scenarios use more
energy and emit more CO2 for transport.
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Conclusions
The results of the scenario simulations with the SASI
model can be summarised as follows:
• Promotion of metropolitan areas will maximise
economic growth but increase spatial disparities and
environmental damage.
• Promotion of rural and peripheral regions will
increase spatial cohesion but reduce economic
growth and sustainability.
• Promotion of large and medium-sized cities is
a rational trade-off between competitiveness and
cohesion and will be best for the environment.
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Conclusions
These results validate the balanced polycentric spatial
organisation of Europe as suggested by the European
Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP) and the
Territorial Agenda (TA).
The B scenarios (Cities) should therefore be taken
as the point of departure for the territorial vision.
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More information
Wegener, M., Bökemann, D. (1998): SASI Model: Model
Structure. Berichte aus dem Institut für Raumplanung 40.
Dortmund: Institute of Spatial Planning, University of
Dortmund. http://www.raumplanung.unidortmund.de/irpud/
fileadmin/irpud/content/documents/publications/ber40.pdf.
Wegener, M. (2008): SASI Model Description. Working
Paper 08/01. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Stadt
und Regionalforschung. http://www.spiekermann-wegener.
de/mod/pdf/AP_0801.pdf.
Spiekermann, K. Wegener, M. (2013): The SASI Scenarios until 2050. Project Report for the ESPON-Projekt
ET2050 (Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe).
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