Transcript Conference on European Territorial Research 13

Conference on European
Territorial Research
13-14 October 2005
Scenarios for European Spatial
Development
ESPON Project 3.2.
Jacques ROBERT
Objectives
ESPON 3.2 has two main objectives:
Synthesize all data and information collected in
the ESPON projects and other transnational
research efforts and build spatialized scenarios
on possible and (un)desirable futures in order
to deduce policy recommendations from them.
2. Coordinate the ESPON research effort in order
to develop sustainable tools allowing the
creation of a research network / programme on
European territorial planning.
Information flows in the scenario
writing process
Future
Research
Information
Base
KTEN
Model
Scenario
Writing
Results of
ESPON
Projects
European
Territorial
Cohesion
Index
MASST
Model
Communication
and
Consultation
Submodel 1: National component
Regional structural
elements
Macroeconomic elements
Δ Efficiency wage
(inflation and
productivity
increases)
Exchange rate
movements
€ / $, national
currencies
Submodel 2: Regional differential
component
Exports
Internal
consumption
National
component
National growth
- attractiveness
- economic
success
Interest rates
Public
expenditure
Population
PAC
Social
capital
Social and
human capital
policies
Human
capital
Internal
investments
Regional differential
component
Infrastructural
level
Innovative
capacity
Foreign direct
investments
Differential shift
Capital / labour
ratio
Imports
Accessibility
Final economic effect
Macroeconomic
policies
Regional growth
- attractiveness
- economic success
- spatial spillovers
Territorial context
Geographical
position
Urban structure
Regional equity
disparities
Structural policies
Productive
structure
Infrastructural
policies
Innovative
policies
The scenario writing process is composed of two
phases:
- a series of exploratory policy-oriented thematic
scenarios (up to summer 2005)
- a series of integrated scenarios (prospective and
roll-back)
The scenarios will be assessed as to their impact
on territorial cohesion
Policy recommendations will be formulated
Exploratory and policy-oriented thematic
scenarios (Phase 1 of Project 3.2.)
Didactic objective of thematic scenarios:

Highlighting the territorial impacts of exogenous
factors taken individually
Approach:

For each theme, opposite hypotheses are
chosen (relatively extreme, but not unrealistic)
THEMATIC EXPLORATORY AND POLICY
SCENARIOS (ROLL-FORWARD)
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


Demography
Socio-cultural
evolution
Economy
Transport
Climate change

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

Energy
Rural development
EU enlargement
Territorial
governance
Scenario hypotheses
DEMOGRAPHY
Two prospective scenarios:
1.
2.
« Silver century »: population ageing
and contained European immigration
(trend)
« Open borders »: radical change in
European immigration policy (policy
scenario)
Socio-cultural evolution
Two prospective scenarios:
1.
« Non-mastered socio-cultural
diversity » (increasing tensions between
ethnic and cultural groups; increasing
segregation)
2.
« towards a peaceful multicultural
society in Europe »
(success of multiculturalism and integration
policies)
Economy
Four scenarios resulting from the combination of two policy
objectives:
- global economic efficiency and competitiveness
- cohesion, equity in development
1. Strong competitiveness policy/weak cohesion
policy
2. Weak competitiveness and weak cohesion
policies
3. Strong cohesion policy/ weak competitiveness
policy
4. Strong competitiveness and strong cohesion
policies
Transport
Two policy scenarios:
1. « More investments in motorways »
(modal shift policies have been inefficient; long-term
traffic forecasts are alarming)
2. Decoupling economic development from
mobility of people and goods »
(restrictions of road and air transport and
implementation of the Lisbon strategy)
Energy
Two prospective scenarios :


« Europe in a context of high energy
price»: strong and sustained increase in
energy price, but no oil scarcity
« Europe after oil peaking »: peaking of oil
production at world scale and oil scarcity
Rural development
Two prospective scenarios:
1.
« Open market »
(liberalisation of international markets;
reduction of tariff barriers; increasing
agricultural productivity; weak rural
development policy)
2. « Sustainable rurality »
(strong and integrated rural development
policy)
Climate change
Two prospective scenarios:
-
-
Scenario: “Repairing instead of preventing”
Limitation of prevention measures because of their costly
and unpopular character
Scenario “Anticipation of climate change through
prevention measures” (Policy scenario)
On the basis of lessons learnt from the past decade,
systematic prevention measures are implemented in a
variety of fields and are supported by EU policies
Territorial governance
Two prospective scenarios:
1.
2.
The EU level moves from a sectoral to a
territorial governance approach;
increasing role of regions in territorial
governance
Mainplayers in territorial governance are
again the states; alliance with
municipalities; efficient control of EU
policies by national governments
EU enlargement
Competition between two objectives:
- further EU enlargements;
- deepening of integration
- Scenario “Europe as a market place”
Further EU enlargements (EU with approx. 40 member
states); Stopping further deepening of integration;
renationalisation of some policies
- Scenario “Europe as a temple”
Deepening of integration taking place at the expense
of further enlargements; Territorial cohesion and
sustainable development are major priorities
Examples of territorial impacts and
policy messages
Scenario on population ageing “Silver century”:
Territorial impacts:


Retirement in areas with good access to services
(health, culture) and with high security (lower
crime rates);
Growing spatial differentiation by generation:
concentration of retired people in rural areas;
concentration of active population in towns and
metropolitan areas;
Policy messages:
 Need to elaborate solutions to the growing
demand for specific services for aged
people both in cities and in a number of
rural areas;
 Need to increase the education level of
young generations, in particular of the less
qualified (increasing demand for qualified
people in replacement of retired people);
 Need to increase workforce participation
(women, unemployed);
 Need to increase labour productivity
Scenario: “Non-mastered integration”
Territorial impacts:




Increasing social segregation and insecurity in cities;
The better offs leave the large cities as residential location
and commute by private cars
Increasing degradation of facilities and housing in poor
urban areas;
Development of “gated communities” near large cities and in
tourist areas.
Policy messages:

Pro-active immigration policy without strong integration
policy is counterproductive, not only economically and
socially, but also in territorial terms. It works against
sustainable spatial development
Energy scenarios
Territorial impacts:
- Before oil production peaking:
 Move of population towards southern and coastal regions
(climate)
 Reduction of mobility by car (more compact cities)
 Reorganisation of production/consumption systems at
intermediate scale (reduction of transport costs)
 Competition in the use of agricultural land between food and
energy production (biofuels);
 Impacts of wind energy facilities on landscapes
- After oil production peaking:
 Decreasing attractiveness of large cities (economic and social
problems)
 Move of new unemployed towards rural areas (subsistence)
Policy messages:


Increasing oil price makes investments profitable
(further oil exploration, alternative energy
sources, energy savings…);
The probability of conflicting policy objectives is
high (for example: nuclear energy/increasing
safety; wind energy/landscape protection);

The probability of oil production peaking is
100% sure; uncertainty only about the date;

Alternative energy sources and energy savings
should become a strong priority of public policies
Climate change
Scenario “Repairing instead of preventing”
Territorial impacts:
 Increasing disparities between northern and southern
regions (agriculture, tourism);
 Devitalisation of rural areas in southern Europe (declining
agricultural production, depopulation, deterioration of
landscapes and forests);
 Stronger pressure on rural areas of northern Europe
(agriculture, tourism);
 Changes in migration flows between north and south;
 Deterioration of assets and settlements in areas prone to
floods
Policy messages:
 The absence of prevention measures in a context of
accelerating climate change is likely to generate significant
costs in the long range which will be higher than the costs of
prevention measures
Second phase: Integrated scenarios


Basic features: Multi-thematic scenarios, using the
scenario bases and parts of the thematic scenarios
as well as further foresight investigations
Common background: all integrated scenarios have
a common background, considered as unavoidable
in the period 2005-2030:
- Population ageing
- Accelerating globalisation
- Increasing energy price and changing energy
paradigm
- Growing negative impacts of climate change

Differentiation between the integrated
scenarios:
Differentiation results from different hypotheses concerning
a number of specific policies related to alternative (or joint)
priorities (cohesion, competitiveness, integration etc.)

Principles of elaboration
- The integrated scenarios are qualitative scenarios
supported by a number of quantitative models and
projections (used for instance for quantifying indicators)
- The qualitative scenarios will produce spatially
differentiated results and information going farther than
model outputs and projections, both in terms of themes
considered and of territorial impacts
Baseline Scenario

Basic hypotheses
Continuation of trends and no major
changes in policies applied (but including
recent policies, such as the enforcement
of the Kyoto Agreement)

Demography :
- Fertility down and mortality down => population ageing
- Total European population stable (+ enlargement)
- Increasing, but globally controlled external migration
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Economy :
- constant, but modest economic growth
- slowly increasing total activity rate
- slowly growing R&D expenditure, but constant
technological gap to USA
- decreasing public expenditure

Energy :
- steady increase of energy prices
- consumption stable/decreasing
- increase of the use of renewables

Transport :
- continued growth of all traffic categories, but
curbed down by energy price, energy saving
measures and Kyoto Agreement, with possible
modal shift
- constant increase of infrastructure endowment

Rural Development
- further liberalisation of international trade
- reduction of CAP budget
- increased industrialisation of agricultural
production
- further diversification of functions of rural
areas
- strong dualisation of rural areas, however
attenuated by the production of biofuels

Socio-cultural sector
- increasing polarisation between socio-cultural groups
- growing socio-cultural (ethnic, religious, and social)
tensions

Governance :
- increasing cooperation between cross-border regions
- increase in multi-level and cross-sectoral approaches,
but limited to specific programmes (rural development);
- maintain of competition and incoherence between
policies devoted to innovation / competitiveness and
others devoted to cohesion

Climate change :
- Moderate overall climate change until 2030 (+1°)
- Increase of extreme local events
- Constant emission levels
- Few (too little) structural adaptation measures

Enlargement :
- by 2008 Bulgaria & Romania
- by 2020 Western Balkans
- by 2030 Turkey
- continued combination of deepening and widening
enlargement of Eurozone
Integrated scenario “Competitive
Europe through liberalisation”

Basic hypotheses:
- In-depth revision of public interventions,
in particular at EU level;
- General reduction of EU budget;
targeting of EU interventions towards R&D
and education, ICT, strategic external
accessibility at the expense of CAP and
Structural Policies

Demography :
- increase in selective (economic sectors &
destination) immigration
- abolishment of constraints to internal migration
- increase in retirement age
- encouraging fertility rate through fiscal incentives

Socio-cultural sector :
- reactive social problem management in large cities
- increase of surveillance and security systems

Economy :
- reduction of total public expenditure
- further privatisation and liberalization of public services
- priority of public expenditures to R&D, education, ICT and
strategic external accessibility (ICT and transport)
- more and easily accessible venture capital
- flexibilisation of labour markets

Energy :
- realisation of TEN – E: investments in infrastructure
according to market demand
- priority to alternative (non-based on oil and gas), largescale energy production for metropolitan areas

Transport :
- realisation of TEN-T: investments in infrastructure
according to market demand
- priority to links between metropolitan areas

Rural Development :
- rapid and radical liberalisation of CAP (reduction of
tariffs, budget and export subsidies)
- reduction of rural development policy
- rapid industrialisation of agricultural production

Governance :
- abolishing barriers to cross-border cooperation
- less public intervention
- reinforcement of the Open Method of Coordination
- increasing role of private sector in decision making
- strengthening of the third pillar (foreign policy,
justice, security, ...) of the EU policies

Climate Change :
- mitigation measures based on flexible schemes &
stimulation of alternative technologies.
- adaptation measures only where cost efficient

Enlargement :
- Continuing enlargement to widen the
market:
- Romania, Bulgaria 2008
- Western Balkan 2015
- Turkey 2020, possibly Ukraine
- Strengthening of the neighbourhood policy
(Maghreb, Russia etc.)
Integrated scenario “Socio-economically
and territorially cohesive Europe”

Basic hypotheses:
- Strong EU cohesion policy
- Structural policies integrate competitiveness
objectives

Demography :
- restrictive external migration policies
- more flexible retirement ages
- encouraging fertility rates (=> encourage better
balance of population structure)
- more flexible arrangements for child care

Economy :
- maintaining importance of EU budget
- reinforcement and strong focus of structural funds on
weakest regions
- further harmonization of taxation and social security
systems, as far as non detrimental to the
competitiveness of less developed countries :

Socio-cultural :
- promotion of regional and European identities
- integration of marginal groups (ex: gypsies,
etc) in peripheral areas
- proactive socio-cultural integration policies
- increased fiscal and/or social investment in
quality of life issues (health, personal care, local
environment, etc...)

Energy :
- realisation of TEN-E
- promotion of decentralised energy production
(in particular renewables)

Transport :
- development of TEN-T with priority to peripheral
regions at different scales
- support to transport services in rural and less
developed regions

Governance :
- active multi-level territorial governance, in
particular in areas supported by structural funds
- strong role of public actors in territorial
governance
- stronger role for the European Commission

Rural Development :
- minor CAP reforms, but shift from pillar 1
to pillar 2. Priority to less developed rural
regions in the field of direct payments to
farmers (pillar 1)
- priority to environmental and animal
health criteria;
- slow industrialisation and moderate
diversification of agricultural production,
promotion of quality products
- active policy for diversification of rural
areas, including SMEs, tourism, residential
functions etc.

Climate Change :
- strict mitigation measures (taxes, road pricing as
far as non detrimental to peripheral regions)
- wide range of adaptation measures (EU hazard
funds, large investments)

Enlargement :
- break on further enlargement (except Bulgaria &
Romania, but will enter later than foreseen)
- only lip service to neighbourhood policy
Hypotheses for the “desirable”roll-back
scenario:
Two possibilities:
-
-
Starting from an ideal image of the
European territory and investigating the
possibilities of achieving it through policies;
or starting from a set of policies combining
cohesion and competitiveness and
investigating its impacts on the territory
until the final image looks “desirable”