Transcript Scenario B
25 Years of INTERREG 15-16 September 2015 in Luxembourg Building on 25 Years: Visions for your region and Europe Game changers Global economic context Demographic dynamics Digital revolution New life style preferences Trends Important current trends impacting your region and Europe − − − − − Geo-political tensions to the East Uneven economic recovery from the crisis Outlook at persistent regional imbalances within the EU Territorial concentration forces dominant Larger urban agglomerations best economic performers and most attractive as places for investment and living − Climate change impact with highest vulnerability in Southern Europe Scenarios and Vision process Present: • Situation Analyses Towards 2050: • Base line Scenario • 3 Territorial Scenarios In 2050: • Territorial Vision Moving from 2010 to 2050: • Pathways regions 4 VISION metro 3 5 2 1 BASE BASE PRESENT 2010 2020 city network 2030 2040 2050 Baseline Scenario towards 2030 Continuing the policy mix of today: Economic growth and growing regional disparities • GDP p.a. 1,89% • 44 regions below 1% growth Territorial Scenario A Promotion and networking of European metropolises towards 2050: • Based on Europe 2020 strategy (2010) in relation to global competitiveness. • Promotion of the largest metropolitan regions of global importance in Europe. • Taking advantage of the connectivity to international networks and the agglomeration economies of larger European metropolises. • Investments in 76 Metropolitan European Growth Areas (MEGAs): High-level R&D; transport infrastructure (longdistance networks and global gateways); integrated transnational zones. Territorial Scenario A: Promotion of Metropolises Territorial Scenario B Promotion and networking of cities towards 2050: • Integrate Europe 2020 strategy (2010) with ESDP (1999) as well as TA (2007) and TA 2020 (2011). • Promotion of national and major regional capitals. • Favouring balanced polycentric urban systems at the macro-regional and national scale. • Investments in 261 cities of European or national significance: Cohesion and Structural funds mostly targeting cities, with investments in urban renewal/reurbanisation, R&D, and regional/inter-regional transport networks. Territorial Scenario B: Promotion of Second Tier Cities Territorial Scenario C Promotion of small-medium cities and less developed regions towards 2050: • Based on Europe 2020 strategy (2010) and TA 2020 (2011). • Promotion of small- and medium-sized cities as centers of self-contained and economically resilient regions. • Reinforcing the social and economic balance of Europe at the regional level in a strong place-based approach. • Investments: Cohesion and Structural funds mostly targeting rural less developed areas; local/regional transport networks; decentralisation at local/regional level. Territorial Scenario C: Promotion of Smaller Cities and less developed Regions Comparing scenario A, B and C - 2030 • Towards 2030, Alternative Scenario B is the most expansionary in terms of GDP. Baseline: Scenario A: Scenario B: Scenario C: + + + + 1,9% 2,2% 2,3% 1,8% • Higher levels of growth under Scenario B: More efficient utilisation of territorial capital elements and local specificities. • Highest levels of territorial cohesion and competitiveness. • Regional divergence is only marginally reduced in the three scenarios in relation to the baseline trend for 2030. • However, an integrated and equilibrated urban system a precondition. Towards 2040 - 2050 • European economic growth in the long-run, not significantly affected by the promotion of any of the three territorial scenarios • Economic development more depending on technological innovation and changes • An evolution during 2020-2050, • gradually unleashing more and more growth potential for cities and regions, will deliver • the highest overall economic growth for Europe • more limited environmental impacts in terms of landtake, transport and energy demand. • A balanced European territory a possible option for a long-term territorial vision Towards a European Territorial Vision - 2020 Towards a European Territorial Vision - 2030 Towards a European Territorial Vision - 2050 European Territorial Vision? Making Europe Open and Polycentric Open: • Connecting Europe globally • Promoting co-development with Neighbourhood regions Polycentric: • Unleashing regional diversity and endogenous development as a mean to reduce regional disparities • Supporting a balanced urban structure • Sustainable management of resources Vision: A shared view of the European territory Implementation How to get there? The role of INTERREG? Policy process on the scenarios setting the vision Close link to key policy areas, policies and strategies Participatory processes creating ownership A shared and integrated view on the future European territory • Policy pathways promoting developments towards the vision, including EU Cohesion Policy post 2020 • INTERREG programmes should perform as important drivers in promoting a balanced, open and polycentric Europe. • • • • ESPON Territorial Evidence Thank you for your attention Inspire policy making by territorial evidence www.espon.eu