Transcript Diapositiva 1

ATTREG Project (ESPON 2013/1/7)
“The Attractiveness of Regions and Cities for Residents and Visitors” (2010-2012)
ESPON 2013 Programme – Open Seminar
“European Territorial Evidence for EU Cohesion Policy and Programming”
13-14 June 2012 - Aalborg, Denmark
Session 2 - Workshop 7
Environmental Resources, Climate Change and Risk Prevention
A.P. Russo (URV, LP) and L. Servillo (KUL)
LEAD PARTNER
University Rovira i Virgili (ES)
PROJECT PARTNERS
KU Leuven (BE)
Univ. of Venice Ca’ Foscari (IT)
EURICUR Rotterdam (NL)
Univ. of Coimbra (PT)
RESEARCH SUBCONTRACTOR
Istanbul Technological University (TR)
Centre for Tourism Research (DK)
IGSO (PL)
Univ. of Ljubljana (SI)
Univ. of West England (UK)
The ATTREG project
•
Objectives of the project
–
–
–
–
•
Understanding the attractiveness of territorial assets to different
“audiences”, looking into the 2001-07 period
Explaining mains spatial trends, classifying regions accordingly
Investigate these relations at different spatial scales, and focusing on
idiosyncrasies and “immeasurable” facts
Developing an analytic framework to asses different policy options
Achievements
–
–
–
30+ indicators and 5 regional typologies of potential and realised
attractiveness, providing inputs for place-based attraction strategies
8 case studies illustrating “mobilisation” mechanisms in a variety of
contexts and territorial scales
18 scenarios to assess the potential impacts of different policy options
(“inclusive”, “smart”, “sustainable”)
What attracts whom?
Outcome measure for regression analysis
Net migration rates 2001-07
Total
annual
flow
ANTROPIC CAPITAL
an1
Monuments index
an2
an3
Gross population density
an4
Bedplaces in collective establishments
an5
Accessibility
an6
Metropolitan areas
ec1
GDP per capita
ECONOMIC-HUMAN
ec2
CAPITAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
CAPITAL
INSTITUTIONAL
CAPITAL
SOCIO-CULTURAL
CAPITAL
Airport rank
Highly educated residents
Visitor arrival rates 2001-04
Flow of
15-24
year
olds
Flow of
25 to 49
year
olds
Flow of
50 to 64
year
olds
All
visitors
‘Foreign
” visitors
Domestic
visitors
(+) *
(+) ***
(-) **
(+) ***
(+) ***
(+) ***
(-) **
(+) ***
(-) ***
(-) ***
(-) **
(+) ***
(+) ***
(+) ***
(-) **
(+) ***
(+) ***
(-) **
(+) ***
(+) ***
(-) *
(+) *
(+) ***
(+) *
(+) **
(+) ***
(-) ***
(-) ***
(-) ***
(-) *
(-) ***
(-) *
(-) **
(-) ***
(-) ***
(-) ***
(+) ***
ec3
Employment in consumption sectors
env1
env2
Climate stability
env3
env4
Coastal regions
in1
in2
Satisfaction with health services
in3
N. of NUTS2 regions in country
soc1
Share of university students registered in
local universities on young age cohort
(+) ***
soc2
soc3
Satisfaction with life
(+) ***
(+) *
(-) ***
(+) **
(+) ***
(+) *
(+) **
(+) ***
(+) ***
(-) ***
(-) ***
Share of Natura 2000 landscape
designation
Island regions
Employment in public sector
Dependency rate
(-) **
(-) **
(-) **
(-) **
(-) **
(+) **
(+) ***
(+) **
Significant at 10%: *, Significant at 5%: **, Significant at 1%: ***
(+) ***
(-) **
(-) ***
Δ TCI
(warm cold months)
Perc. Natura
2000 sites
(on total surface)
Regional typology by relative endowments with different forms of territorial capital
CLASS A
Relatively rich in environmental
and antropic assets - ‘too’
attractive?
CLASS B
Relatively rich in environmental
assets(alone)
CLASS C
Relatively rich in economic,
social and institutional assets
CLASS D
A mix of everything
Much less attractive than what
expected from territorial
endowments
Less attractive than what
expected from territorial
endowments
As attractive as predicted
through territorial
endowments
More attractive than what
expected from territorial
endowments
Much more attractive than
what expected from territorial
endowments
Main policy insights from the ATTREG analysis
• Climate
– Climatic conditions and stability as important pull factors for human
mobility as a ‘soft’ factor driving the migration of workers in the 2000s
– Overlapping with tourism mobility has produced “excessive” attraction
especially in south-western regions
– Worsening climate condition may determine a “return to normality”?
– Other areas did a good job in capitalising on their climatic
attractiveness
• Environmental preservation
– Adds to attractiveness especially in regions that are under-endowed of
antropic and economic capital
– Good performance of sparsely populated regions in the proximity of
congested urban areas
– Few regions in the East and South fully capitalised on this advantage
Environmental preservation as a “policy lever”
• ATTREG’s “scenario analysis” allowed to check the effects on territorial
cohesion produced by policy bundles which relate to the inclusive, smart,
sustainable policy strategies as deviations on population, GDP, “export”
jobs over baseline (status quo) DEMIFER scenario predictions
• Application of “sustainable” policy bundle ...
– Protection of cultural and natural environments, protection and valorisation of
cultural heritage and other visitor attractions
•
proxies: 1) monument index; 2) Natura 2000 protected area
– Limitation of polluting factors (particularly those related to transport, such as
cost of fuel, taxation, etc.)
•
proxies: 3) ranking of airports; 4) accessibility through road and ferry network
– Policies related to quality of life and capacity of retention, in particular for the
younger population
•
proxies: 5) life satisfaction; 6) dependency rate
• .... to “overheating” and “convergence” regions
“Sustainable” policy in convergence regions – predicted change over baseline
POPULATION
P.C. GDP
“Sustainable” policy in overheating regions – predicted change over baseline
POPULATION
P.C. GDP
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
[email protected]
[email protected]