Transcript ESPON MC Workshop Presentation on TIA, by Roberto

ESPON Internal Seminar 2012
“Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its
Neighbourhood to Foster Global Competitiveness”
Participatory Session of ET2050 Project:
Meeting with ESPON MC and CU on
Territorial Impact Assessment of Scenarios
by Roberto Camagni
Paphos, 4th December 2012
Aims of the presentation
The use of TIA in order to assess territorial impact of 2030 and 2050
Scenarios is considered an essential part of the ET2050 project, in the view of
properly defining the 2050 Vision.
Aim of the presentation:
Presenting the way a Territorial Impact Assessment of the different Scenarios
will be carried out,
Animate a participatory debate on some relevant issues concerning the TIA
procedure and consequent decisions
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Specific goals
Three main elements, previous to any operational procedure, have to be
discussed, namely:
defining the main “Driving Forces” inside each scenario, due to
generate territorial impacts,
B. defining the “Impact Fields” (the criteria of Multicriteria Analysis) on which
impacts will be assessed,
C. defining the “Weights” to assign to each type of impact, when a
“summative”, generalized impact is due to be calculated.
A.
Elements A and B mainly imply a validation of what is proposed by the TPG
Element C requires a full decision by the MC.
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Methodology
Territorial Impacts will be calculated for:
- the Baseline Scenario, at 2030 and 2050,
- the 3 Exploratory Scenarios, at 2030 and 2050,
- the possible alternative Baseline Scenario (“EU fragmentation”), in case it is
accepted by the CU and MC.
Impacts will be mapped for the main Impact Fields and for the “Summative”
impact, in each Scenario.
This will imply a large number of elaborations and mappings:
an important effort is therefore needed since the beginning in order not to
expand excessively the number of Impact Fields, Driving Forces and Scenario
alternatives.
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Methodology
The methodology is similar to the one utilised in the previous Espon
Projects TEQUILA (Espon 3.2.) and simplified in the ARTS Project.
Therefore, there is no need to further improve the existing TIA
methodology and software support, but, instead, to:
- adapt it to the new goal of calculating Territorial Impacts of Scenarios
(and not of more specific policies or EU Directives, as in past experiences
within ESPON), and
- adapt it to import results from the forecast and foresight models
utilised in ET2050 Project.
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Methodology
The TEQUILA model utilised in the project is a Multicriteria model, addressed
to provide quantitative figures on impacts in different fields for all regions in
the Espon space. Results are mapped at NUTs 2 level.
In terms of impact indicators, most of the necessary inputs will be provided by
the simulation procedures of the quantitative models utilised in the project.
Where this will prove unfeasible, sets of complex indicators will be provided ,built
on the basis of experts judgement, group work and discussion inside the
TPG.
Models and/or experts judgements provide the Potential Impact in all regions
and all impact fields;
these indicators are coupled by a set of Regional Sensitivity indicators, defining
the different priorities attached to each impact field in each region
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The assessment process of each Scenario
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The participatory process on TIA
Participatory discussion has to focus on three elements, preliminary to any operatio
A. defining the main “Driving Forces” inside each scenario
B. defining the “Impact Fields” (the criteria of Multicriteria Analysis)
C. defining the “Weights” to be assigned to each type of impact, when a “summa
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8 Driving Forces proposed by Steering Committee
Driving Forces help summarising the main hypoteses underlying each
Scenario and their Potential Territorial Impact
(an operational and technical aim)
- Economy (macroeconomic elements, international trade, FDI, ...)
- EU Integration and internal solidarity
- Technological change (ICTs, green economy, new production paradigms, ...)
- Climate change
- Transport policies
- CAP policies
- Cohesion policies
- Neighbourhood policies / migration policies
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4/20 Impact Fields proposed by the Steering Committee
ECONOMY
GDP
Employment (manufact.+ services)
Innovation
Tourism
Accessibility
SOCIETY
Unemployment
Disposable income per capita
Road accidents
Risk of poverty
Net migration
ENVIRONMENT
Land consumption
Emissions/pollutants in the air
Congestion
Flood hazard
Land erosion
TERRITORIAL IDENTITY
Landscape fragmentation
Creativity
Cultural heritage
Natural heritage
Multiculturality
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20 Impact Fields proposed by Steering Committee
Each Impact Field has its own (existing) indicator (sources in the text)
Economy
(Smart growth)
5 fields
GDP
Employment
(manufacturing + services)
Tourism
GDP per capita
% of employment in
manufacturing and services
% of firms introducing product
and/or process innovation
Nights on population
Accessibility
Multimodal accessibility
Unemployment
Disposable income per
capita
Road accidents
Risk of poverty
Net migration
Unemployment rate
Innovation
Society
(Inclusive growth)
5 fields
Disposable income per capita
Road fatalities
Poverty index
Net migration balance
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20 Impact Fields proposed by Steering Committee
Environment
Land consumption
(Sustainable growth)
Emissions/pollutants in the
air
5 fields
Territorial Identity
5 fields
Congestion
Flood hazard
% discontinous urban fabric
((vehicles per 1000
inhab)+(dens pop))/2 or
Concentration of PM10
Congestion
Risk of flood hazard
Land erosion
% areas at risk of soil erosion
Landscape fragmentation
Creativity
Cultural heritage
Natural heritage
Multi-culturality
Landscape fragmentation
(Museums+Theatres)*accessib.
n° of TCI 3-stars monuments
% natural areas
???
To debate:
- How to reduce, if possible, the number of Impact Fields (5+20 maps per Scenario!)
- Whether to keep the “Multiculturality” field (politically sensitive?)
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The “Weights” issue
When a “summative” impact of a Scenario on each EU region is considered
relevant, beyond single impacts in specific fields (on GDP, employment,
emissions, ..), one needs to compare the relative importance/priority of
the different fields/goals/criteria:
e.g.: GDP vs. innovation vs. accessibility ..... ; unemployment vs. road
accidents, etc.
Therefore one has to define a system of “weights”, assessed in political and
policy terms. The point of view should be the European one
(as specific priorities at the regional scale are already taken into consideration
by the Regional Sensitivity Matrix).
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The “Weights” issue
Outcomes of today’s discussion could be either:
-
a single system of weights, agreed among MC members
- a series of personal indications on the attached Questionnaire, which
will be subsequently elaborated by the project team.
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The Questionnaire: first step
A two-steps procedure for answers: weigths of single fields inside each Macro-fiel
Question n. 1
Please indicate what you think is the relative importance of the impact fields listed be
Impact fields of Economy
GDP
Employment (manufacturing + services)
Innovation
Tourism
Accessibility
TOTAL
= 100
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The Questionnaire: first step
Question n. 2
Please indicate what you think is the relative importance of the impact fields listed belo
Impact fields of Society
Unemployment
Disposable income per capita
Road accidents
Risk of poverty
Net migration
TOTAL
= 100
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The Questionnaire: first step
Question n. 3
Please indicate what you think is the relative importance of the impact fields
listed below in their contribution to the environmental development of
Europe in 2050.
Impact fields of Environment
Land consumption
Emissions/pollutants in the air
Congestion
Flood hazard
Land erosion
TOTAL
= 100
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The Questionnaire: first step
Question n. 4
Please indicate what you think is the relative importance of the impact
fields listed below in their contribution to the territorial identity of
Europe in 2050.
.
Impact fields of Territorial identity
Landscape fragmentation
Creativity
Cultural heritage
Natural heritage
Multi-culturality
TOTAL
= 100
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The Questionnaire: second step
Question n. 5
Please indicate what you think is the relative importance of the four
major development fields listed below in their contribution to the overall
welfare of Europe in 2050.
Development fields
Economy – Smart growth policy objectives
Society – Inclusive growth policy objectives
Environment – Sustainable growth policy objectives
Territorial Identity policy objectives
TOTAL
= 100
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THANKS
Many thanks indeed
for your attention
and inspiring collaboration !!
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