Transcript ET 2050
Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050) Philippe Doucet ERRIN Conference “Smart specialisation, integrated strategies and territorial cohesion: tension or synergies” 27 September 2012 - Brussels The ESDP process: 1989-1999, 14 ministerial meetings “What needs to be done and where?”: no answer... No map displaying geographically-differentiated policy objectives • in the Territorial Agenda 2007 (adopted in 2007 in Leipzig) • in the Territorial Agenda 2020 (adopted in 2011 in Gödöllő) • in the Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion • in the Baltic Sea Region and Danube Region Strategies But some attempts were made, for example: Europe 2030 (Conference of Peripheral and Maritime Areas CPMR , 2002) Eurocities: European Territorial Vision and Framework (ETVF) “Giving Spatial Expression to the Concept of Territorial Cohesion” All these exercises were tricky, and no formal attempt has ever been made in the framework of the EU economic, social and territorial cohesion policy. However, the ESPON 2006 programme, launched in 2002, was meant to provide technical support to the Territorial Agenda process, hence to contribute to a geographically differentiated policy approach. ESPON 2006 = “European Spatial Planning Observation Network”. ESPON 2013 = “European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion”. ESPON 2006, Project 3.2 : “Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe”. ESPON Project 3.2 (published May 2007) ESPON Project 3.2 “Roll-back scenario” ESPON 2013 Programme: ET2050 Project ET 2050 stands for: « Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050) » Goal: supporting policy makers in formulating a long-term integrated and coherent VISION for the development of the EU territory from 2010 up to 2050. ET2050 Consortium ESPON CU Sara Ferrara Marjan van Herwijnen Sounding Board Patrick Salez Karl Peter Schon MCRIT, LP Andreu Ulied Oriol Biosca Rafael Rodrigo POLIMI Roberto Camagni Roberta Capello Ugo Fratesi TERSYN (Jacques Robert) IOM Marek Kupiszewski Dorota Kupiszewska IGEAT Valérie Biot Philippe Doucet Vincent Calay RIKS Jaspers de Vliet Hedwig van Delden RKK Ivan Illes Katalin Süle S&W Michael Wegener Klaus Spiekermann Nordregio Alexandre Dubois University of Thessaly (UTH) Harry Coccosis WSE Jacek Szlachta ISIS Carlo Sessa ERSILIA Jaume Jorba ET2050 Methodology Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what would we like to happen?) State of progress (1st Interim Report) Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?) ET2050 work plan Late Sept. 2012 Tasks already performed (First Interim Report) 1. Analysis of Present State (16 reports) • • • 2. Critical By Sectors (demography, economy, energy, transport, land-uses, environment, governance) By Territories (9 macro-zones covering EU+NC) By European Policies (Cohesion, Agricultural, Transport, Environment…) Bifurcations ahead (aprox. 25) 3. Definition of Key Directions (aprox. 15 Trends + 15 Policies) 4. Comparison of Baseline Scenarios (aprox. 100 future-oriented studies) 5. Foresight exercise (indicators at World/EU scale (1950-2050, 10+50 indicators) 6. Forecast exercise (indicators at NUTS3) • Sectoral models (MULTIPOLES, MASST, MOSAIC-TT, METRONAMICA) and Integrated model (SASI) 7. Analysis of results and adjustment of Baseline Scenario Baseline Reference World Indicators Overall EU role in the World 1950-2050 (Europe's share in the World) 100% Population Tourism GDP Energy consumption Trade CO2 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Baseline R&D Indicators Expenditure in public & private R&D (% of GDP) 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% 1950 1960 Sector R&D / innovation 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Horizon Official European Target 2020 From 1.8% to 3% of the EU's GDP (public and private combined) to be invested in R&D 2020 2030 2040 Base Assumption -line 1,9% Does not comply 2050 Critical Bifurcation Federalism (Superstate) Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario Limited Federalism Wellfare (in average) Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario (Most Win) Euro-crisis Break-up Worse-case Scenario for ST (All Lost) 1992 2012 2020 2050 Critical Bifurcation Federalism (Superstate) Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario Limited Federalism Wellfare (in average) Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario Baseline BAU (no Reforms) Scenario Euro-crisis Break-up Worse-case Scenario (All Lost) 1992 2012 2020 2050 ET 2050 Scenario – Territory Matrix First tentative outline ! The Vision-scenarios iterative process The building process of the scenarios and the Territorial VISION should be cyclical and dynamic allowing various key-players to take an active part in the development and testing of the VISION and scenarios Scientifically-driven VISION Scenarios Politically-driven Important to address key-values and policy goals at an early stage of the ET2050 project implementation process Please visit: www.et2050.eu Thank you for your attention!