Transcript Titel - espon

Integrated spatial scenarios on the territorial futures of
Europe: Lessons for policy and research
ESPON Seminar
Evora, 12 November 2007
Moritz Lennert
IGEAT – ULB
[email protected]
Introduction: Reminder of main messages of scenarios
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Main challenges for Europe's regions
– globalisation
– climate change
– energy
– demography
Other challenges: socio-economic dualisation, socio-cultural
tensions, congestion, pollution, etc, etc
Some of the challenges are exacerbated at regional scale,
compared to a EU-wide perspective
Part I: How is policy taking account of these challenges ?
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Sectoral policies
Regional policies
Does policy make a difference ?
Sectoral policies
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Regional aspects often totally absent...
– Green Paper "Confronting demographic change: a new
solidarity between the generations", COM(2005) 94 final)
– (Green Paper « European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive
and Secure Energy », COM(2006) 105 final)
– Promoting Solidarity between the Generations, COM(2007) 244
final
...but there are recent improvements:
– « A regional approach, taking into account local
circumstances, should be a key element in devising a
renewable energy policy. » (Renewable Energy Road Map.
Renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more
sustainable future - IMPACT ASSESSMENT, SEC(2006) 1719)
– « The distribution of impacts of climate change is likely to be
uneven. Some regions in the EU will suffer
disproportionately. » (Limiting Global Climate Change to 2
degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond,
COM(2007) 2 final)
Regional policies: step by step
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Community Strategic Guidelines
– challenges not explicitely present
The Territorial Agenda
– identifies challenges
– but does not offer any innovative responses in the policy
priorities
The 4th Cohesion Report: challenges clearly identified
Lisbon strategy imposes a too limited framework to address
these challenges
Need to deepen the knowledge about the territorial dimension
of these challenges
But does policy actually make a difference ?
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Challenges constitute framework within which policy can act:
climate change, energy issues, globalisation
Territorial structures have strong inertia
But policy can chose to support or to counteract some trends:
– reinforce the areas with highest potentials
or
– support areas most lagging behind
« A new paradigm is emerging where the policy is
increasingly geared towards resource allocation. [...] In short, it
is a dynamic process of empowerment helping overall
European economic growth and competitiveness. » (D.
Hübner, Fourth Cohesion Forum, Brussels, 28 September 2007
ESPON research needs to continue on the possible impacts of
such a paradigm shift
ESPON policy scenarios explore this question by pushing the
issue to the possible extremes
Possible effects of a paradigm shift ?
PART II: From scenarios to research
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Issues highlighted by scenarios
Some existing ESPON analyses
Some open research questions
Globalisation: Issues highlighted by scenarios
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Market liberalisation at all scales
– new segments of the European economy subject to internal
and external competition
Dualisation
– stronger territorial concentration of the benefits of
globalisation; increasing number of regions negatively
affected
Extra-European competition and FDI
– sensitivity to external mergers; risk of out-migration of
decision centres and high-level business functions
European neighbourhood
– demographic pressure from south and south-east; economic
cooperation/competition and integration of economic
systems
Globalisation: Research questions
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Selection of existing ESPON analyses
– regional sectoral specificities (3.4.1, 3.4.2)
– insertion into global networks and neighbourhood relations
(3.4.1)
– MASST model (3.2)
– “Lisbon capacities” (3.3)
– ITC innovation (1.2.3)
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Selection of open questions
– Identify regional insertion into global economy: tools for
regional accounting
– Analyse links between metropolitan areas and periphery
– Identify region's sensitivity to capital mobility
– Role of regions in, and impact on regions of, neighbourhood
policies
Climate change: Issues identified by the scenarios
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Structural impacts:
– drought in southern Europe (impacts on the economy, the
environment and the production of hydro-electricity)
– mountain regions dependent upon winter tourism;
– potential positive impacts on the northern half of Europe
(new opportunities for rural areas and for winter tourism in
the Nordic countries)
Impacts of natural hazards: river valleys, coastal areas, forest
areas in southern Europe, but local risk is probabilistic
Less prosperous regions have less resources to allocate to
prevention and mitigation measures
Climate change: Research questions
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Selection of existing ESPON analyses
– hazard analyses (1.3.1)
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Selection of open research questions
– More precise evaluation of regional risks and opportunities
based on different scenarios
• Impact of drought on economies and landscapes in
Southern Europe
• Impact on tourism in mountain areas
• Climate change as opportunity for northern regions
– Elaboration of more precise risk evaluation tools
– Regional impact of climate change mitigation (CO2
reduction) policies
– Evaluation of regional potentials for CO2 reduction
Energy: Issues identified by the scenarios
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Expensive energy vs rare energy
Evolution of mobility and accessibility (substitution through
telecom services ?);
Evolution of settlements (compact cities?)
Delocalisation of companies towards lower energy prices
Opportunities for regions with renewable energy sources and
new energy technologies
Likely positive impacts on the urban environment (hydrogen
technologies)
Competition between food and energy production in rural areas
Environmental damages resulting from intensive energy-related
agriculture and forestry.
Energy: Research questions
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Selection of existing ESPON analyses
– analysis of regional energy structures and needs (2.1.4)
– accessibility models (1.2.1, 2.1.1, 3.2)
– information society (1.2.3)
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Selection of open research questions
– analysis of energy dependency of regions according to
needs (economy, accessibility, etc)
– identification of regional potentials for energy savings and
renewable energy production
– regional impacts of large-scale biofuel production
– impacts of high energy costs on peripheral areas
– analysis of the potentials of ICT to replace mobility
– regional impacts of energy scarcity
Demography: Issues identified by the scenarios
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Increasing territorial differentiation of generations
Impacts of population ageing / shrinking on regional labour
markets
Impacts of depopulation
Socio-cultural evolution in large cities
Demography: Research questions
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Selection of existing ESPON analyses
– analysis of different regional demographic trajectories
(1.1.4)
– regional demographic projections (1.1.4 and 3.2)
– first overview of social issues (1.4.2)
– FUAs (1.1.1 and 1.4.3)
– urban-rural interactions (1.1.2)
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Selection of open research questions
– more precise identification of the driving forces of ageing /
shrinking regions in different types of regions
– analysis of the specific issues related to shrinking regions
– data collection for and analysis of access to services across
Europe
– analysis of specific potentials and issues in residential
regional economies
An ESPON researcher's prayer
Dear Gods of ESPON,
You know we are your humble servants when it comes to
calculating indicators for the smallest NUTS,
You know we give you many pages of report for little money,
So please hear our prayers:
Do not overload us with burdens too heavy for poor desktop
researchers' backs,
Do not put more questions into the terms of reference than there
members in the Monitoring Commitee,
Please agree amongst your divine selves and pick the most
important, the most revelevant questions for our needs,
Please select and focus,
Amen
Introduction to workshops
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Objective: Elaborate a list of important research questions for
ESPON
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3 themes:
– Workshop A: Regions, resources and environment - Climate
change and new energy paradigm
– Workshop B: Regions and people - Ageing, shrinking
regions, access to services
– Workshop C: Regions and activities - Globalisation,
accessibility and knowledge society
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Method
– Amend list of (sub)challenges identified
– Prioritise these challenges
– Brainstorm on research questions