Transcript by Andreu Ulied (v.13-06

Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath
Implications for Spatial Strategies
Andreu Ulied, MCRIT
ESPON Scenarios and Vision project, ET2050 Lead Partner
ESPON 2013 Open Seminar : Territorial Co-operation for growth
13 and 14 June 2013 Dublin Castle
Questions to be discussed:
• What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030?
Regional Disparities?, Global Opennes?, Spatial Polarisation?
• Which Territorial Strategy for Europe up to 2050?
• How European Cohesion policy should be reformed?
Answers mostly based on ET2050 modelling results...
• Politecnico Milano: modelling 2010-2030 Baseline
Scenario with MASST3 model
• S&W modelling 2010-2050 Exploratory Scenarios with
SASI model
• Reference World Scenario by MCRIT
The Crisis Aftermath...
+ Regional Disparities?
GDP Growth 2008-2030 by MASST3
GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)
Relative change in GDP per capita 2000-2008/2030
GDP/Cap divergence for selected economies
Total Employment Change 2010-2030
Population Change 2010-2030 (due to Labour Migration...)
Ageing 2010-2030
The Crisis Aftermath...
+ Global Openness?
Trade by companies located in Germany (M€)
Germany
Trade in M€
EUROSTAT
700.000
600.000
500.000
400.000
300.000
200.000
100.000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
export - extraEU27
2003
2004
2005
export - intraEU27
2006
2007
import - extraEU27
2008
2009
2010
import - intraEU27
2011
2012
Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)
Spain Trade in M€
200.000
180.000
160.000
140.000
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
export - extraEU27
2003
2004
2005
export - intraEU27
2006
2007
import - extraEU27
2008
2009
2010
import - intraEU27
2011
2012
Foreign Investments of EU companies
Accumulated FDI stock in M€ (2008)
120.000
UK
EUROSTAT
100.000
France
80.000
60.000
Spain
UK
40.000
Germany
20.000
0
-20.000
-40.000
Brazil
Canada
China (except Hong
Kong)
Japan
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Spain
Offshore financial
centers
Germany
Russia
United States
+ Spatial Polarisation?
The Crisis Aftermath...
World maritime container traffic. 2008*
13,3 MTEU
20 MTEU
6,7 MTEU
Europe
2,2 MTEU
America
4,4 MTEU
Top 10 ports 2009
Asia
2,2 MTEU
13,3
MTEU
18,4 MTEU
5,1 MTEU
Source : DREWRY, 2008
Evolution of Global Accessibility 2010-2030
Evolution of European Accessibility 2010-2030
Key Baseline Conclusions...
1) End of Economic Convergence in Europe…
2) Increasing Regional Gaps…
3) Lower Average Salaries and Social Disparities...
4) More Labour Mobility in Europe…
5) Global Reorientation of European Economies…
6) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways…
Second Question...
1. What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030?
2. Which European Territorial Strategy up to 2050?
3. How European Cohesion policies could be reformed?
Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050
Framework conditions
Spatial
orientation of
the scenarios
Baseline
1
Economic
decline
2
Technical
advance
3
Energy/
Climate
impacts
Promotion of
metropolitan areas
A
A1
A2
A3
Promotion of large
European cities
B
B1
B2
B3
Promotion of
peripheral regions
and medium cities
C
C1
C2
C3
Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050
ET2050 scenario variants: main assumptions
Framework conditions and policies
Values for 2051
Population (mio)
Baseline
Scenario
3
Energy/
climate
541.7
541.7
99,300*
99,300*
144,000*
EU Subsidies (% of GDP)
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Fuel price/litre (€ of 2010)
3.20
3.20
3.20
10.20
GDP (mio € of 2010)
GDP 2013-2051 (% p.a.)
GDP/worker (€ of 2010)
* plus generative effects
541.7
1
2
Economic Technical
decline
advance
541.7
22,800*
+1.5*
Cohesion and Structural Funds 2000-06 / 2050
Highest and Lowest Growth Scenarios for 2050?
GDP 1981-2051 (1981=100)
Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?
Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita 1981-2051
2007 Crisis
Polycentrism
National polycentricity EU12 1981-2051
Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?
A3
C2
Policy Evaluation
Competitiveness
Scenario GDP/capita Change in
GDP/capita
(€ of 2010)
2013-2051
2051
% p.a.
Cohesion
Sustainability
Coefficient National
of variation
polyGDP/capita centricity
2051
2051
Energy
use
2051
Baseline
42,897
+1.371
50.5
65.1
A
A1
A2
A3
44,000
31,766
53,554
42,136
+1.439
+0.573
+1.965
+1.323
54.7
54.6
50.9
56.0
62.1
62.1
62.1
63.4
A2
B
B1
B2
B3
43,467
31,382
52,921
41,701
+1.406
+0.541
+1.933
+1.296
50.9
50.7
47.2
52.1
65.2
65.2
65.3
65.9
B2
C
C1
C2
C3
43,083
31,105
52,436
41,385
+1.383
+0.517
+1.908
+1.275
50.3
50.1
46,5
51.5
65.7
65.7
65.8
66.4
CO2
emis
sion
2051
C2
Sustainability indicators will also be computed by SASI (Energy use & CO2 emissions) 28
How Cohesion polices could be reformed?
According to
Danuta Huebner,
referring to her
native Poland, an
EU member since
2004:
"It is a different
country now.
That's thanks to
European
contributions"
How Cohesion polices may be reformed?
• + Sensitivity to economic cycles?
• + Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment?
• + Place-based focus towards endogenous development?
• + More Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment?
• + Land-Use Regulations adopted in vulnerable areas?
• + Investments to Neighboring Countries?
“Too seek Europe, is to make it!
Europe exists through its search for the infinit
-and this is what I call adventure”
Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”
Further information:
[email protected]
www.et2050.eu (working documents)
www.espon.eu