Transcript Document

Will the Global economy join the
liquidity party ?
Professor Michel Girardin
University of Lausanne
The Fed will keep on pushing …
« If you're trying to get a car moving that is stuck in the mud, you don't stop
pushing the moment the wheels start turning - you keep pushing until the car is
rolling and is clearly free »
William Dudley – FOMC Voting member – 18 Sept 2012
Central banks to keep expansionary
3
Liquidity helps equity markets …
… and bond markets
CPI headline (%Y/Y)
Bringing the donkey to the fountain …
… but forcing it to drink?
… or the horse to the river …
No credit, no growth !
What will the world look like in 2050 ?
% World GDP
Europe
URSS
USA
Japan
China
India
BRIC
An 0
1000
1500
1600
1700
1820
1913
1950
2000
2010
2020
2050
Expected GDP
growth
10.8
8.7
17.9
20.0
22.5
23.6
33.5
26.3
25.0
25.9
21.5
9.7
1.5
2.4
3.4
3.5
4.4
5.4
8.6
9.6
2.7
2.3
2.5
2.3
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.1
1.8
19.0
27.3
23.6
23.3
21.3
12.9
1.2
2.7
3.1
2.9
4.1
3.0
2.6
3.0
7.6
8.5
6.9
2.7
26.1
22.7
25.0
29.0
22.3
33.0
9.0
4.5
7.2
9.3
11.5
19.9
32.9
28.8
24.5
22.5
24.4
16.0
7.6
4.1
3.6
2.4
3.0
11.0
61.5
55.8
53.3
55.4
51.4
55.0
27.8
23.6
16.4
17.4
20.3
33.5
1.5%
3.0%
2.5%
1.0%
6.0%
8.0%
4.4%