Transcript ESPON 3.2 Scenarios

Spatial Scenarios for Europe: Images of
cohesion or competitiveness
ESPON Project 3.2.
Coordination: J. Robert (Tersyn),
M. Lennert (IGEAT)
Outline of the presentation
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Introduction to scenarios
Introduction to ESPON project 3.2
Global context of future developments
Territorial challenges in Europe
Exploring policy choices
Modelling for policy: A macro-economic model
of regional growth
Political messages of the scenarios
1. Introduction to scenarios
Why do we need scenarios ?
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Territorial patterns are very durable
 inertia
in the movement of people and enterprises
 design and construction of infrastructures
Policy decided today will show its effects in 10
or even 25 years
 Policy-makers need tools to evaluate future
trends and probable effects of their decisions
 Scenarios = tools for future-oriented policymaking
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What are scenarios ?
 narrative
descriptions of possible futures
 development of logical flows of ‘cause and
effect’ steps toward the outcome
 description of the the future through
certain key variables
How are scenarios useful ?
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provide insights into driving forces determining territorial
development
provide insights into opportunities and threats of these
driving forces for different regions
organise seemingly unrelated information and translate it
into a framework for judgement
explore alternative sectoral policies and their territorial
impacts
provide points of reference for the discussions among
European policy-makers
make explicit what is generally only implicit during policy
elaboration
provide policy-makers with arguments
Different types of scenarios
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Content:
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thematic scenarios: insights into possible effects of sectoral
policy choices or of sectoral exogenous evolutions
integrated scenarios: integrated, multi-sectoral evaluation of
impacts of fundamental global policy choices and
exogenous evolutions
Form:
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roll-forward scenarios: scenarios based on input hypotheses
roll-back scenarios: scenarios based on outcome
hypotheses
Challenges of scenario making
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Need to understanding the present…
 current
trends
 driving forces
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…but the future is not a linear extrapolation of
the past !
 anticipate
breaking points
 set of alternative scenarios
 quali-quantitative approaches
2. Introduction to ESPON project 3.2
NETWORK FOR THE SCENARIO PROJECT
COORDINATION: IGEAT (BRUSSELS); TERSYN (STRASBOURG)
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SCENARIO PROJECT
Main objectives:
 Awareness-raising about new territorial challenges, search
for appropriate policy responses and revisiting issues related
to the debate cohesion/competitiveness
 Showing various possibilities for the long-term evolution
(2030) of the European territory
Approach:
 Substantive knowledge base
 Two series of scenarios:
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Large number of thematic, exploratory scenarios related to driving
forces taken separately
Small number of integrative territorial scenarios around the policy
orientations of cohesion and competitiveness
Method: Combination of qualitative/speculative and
quantitative foresight investigations (models)
INTEGRATION OF MODELS
EXAMPLES OF EXPLORATORY, THEMATIC SCENARIOS
European borders open to immigration
 Growing socio-cultural tensions and insufficient
integration policies
 More investments in motorways
 Rural evolution in a context of open markets and
reduced CAP support
 Climate change: repairing instead of preventing
 Europe after oil peaking
 Europe as a market place: EU widening (40 EU
member countries)
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3. Global context of future developments
Climate change
Key impacts as a function of increasing global average temperature change
(IPCC, 2007)
Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress
Increased damage from floods and storms
Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year
Climate change
Significant social and economic impacts
 Risk of increasing socio-economic disparities at
global scale
 Important migratory movements
 Local risks probabilistic
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A new energy paradigm
A new energy paradigm
 Climate
change
 Dependency and security
 Energy vs Food
 Technology unforeseeable
Globalisation
Globalisation
Globalisation
EU27: (Imports+Exports)/GDP = 22% (Eurostat,
2006)
 Reshuffling of international division of labour
and of power
 Extreme labour cost differentials
 Internationalisation of economic governance
 Increasing commodification
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Europe and its neighbourhood
4. Territorial challenges in Europe
THEMATIC TERRITORIAL CHALLENGES RESULTING FROM
SCENARIOS
Demographic evolution:
Increasing territorial differentiation of generations (metropolitan
areas with younger population; attractive areas for retirees;
remote rural areas suffering from long-lasting out-migration)
Impacts of population ageing on regional labour markets:
shortage of qualified manpower; increasing competition
between regions; issue of replacement immigration
Impacts of depopulation: maintain of services and infrastructure?
Evolution of settlements and landscapes?
Socio-cultural evolution in large cities: segregation of disfavoured
groups; growing feeling of insecurity; emergence of gated
communities; efficiency of integration policies?
WHAT TRENDS SHOW: POPULATION AGEING
IMPACTS OF PROGRESSING GLOBALISATION
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New segments of the European economy subject to external
competition high-tech products, agri-products, services)
Stronger territorial concentration of the benefits of globalisation;
increasing number of regions negatively affected;
Handicap of the fragmentation of the European economy (stronger
sensitiveness to external mergers; risk of out-migration of decision
centres and high-level business functions
European neighbourhood: demographic pressure from south and
south-east; demographic depression in the east; intensification of
traffic flows and needs for infrastructure development; economic
cooperation/competition and integration of economic systems;
European energy dependence (Russia, North Africa)
EUROPE AND ITS NEIGHBOURHOOD
IMPACTS OF THE NEW ENERGY PARADIGM
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Location of energy-intensive activities;
Evolution of mobility; substitution through telecom services;
Evolution of settlements (compact cities?)
Opportunities for regions with renewable energy sources
Opportunities for regions developing new energy technologies
Negative impacts on the accessibility of remote regions;
Likely positive impacts on the urban environment (hydrogen
technologies)
Risks related to: the revival of nuclear energy; the competition
between food and energy production in rural areas;
environmental damages resulting from intensive energy-related
agriculture and forestry.
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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Structural impacts:
- drought in southern Europe (impacts on the economy, the
environment and the production of hydro-electricity)
- mountain regions dependent upon winter tourism;
- potential positive impacts on the northern half of Europe (new
opportunities for rural areas and for winter tourism in the
Nordic countries)
Impacts of natural hazards: river valleys, coastal areas, forest
areas in southern Europe;
Less prosperous regions have less resources to allocate to
prevention and mitigation measures
TRANSPORT CHALLENGES
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Further intensification of traffic flows; saturation of main
corridors; transfer of flows to secondary networks
Significant programmes of motorway construction being carried
out or programmed (environmental impact? Coherence with the
new energy paradigm?)
Strong development of air traffic (low cost companies; positive
impacts on the accessibility of remote regions; strong
dependence upon energy prices; environmental impacts?)
Low progress of maritime and rail freight traffic
Progress of the HST network: contributes to the expansion of
the pentagon
5. Exploring policy choices
BEFORE LOOKING AT THE FUTURE: EXISTING DISPARITIES
SCENARIOS’ FEATURES
THE EUROPEAN BACKBONE: AREAS OF
CONCENTRATION OF FLOWS AND ACTIVITIES
CONTRASTING ECONOMIC PERFORMANCES
COHESION-ORIENTED SCENARIO COMPETITIVENESS-ORIENTED SCENARIO
DIVERGING ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
6. Modelling for policy: A macro-economic model
of regional growth
7. Political messages of the scenarios
Messages from the territorial perspectives
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The European territory will be confronted in the coming
decades with a number of new challenges, independently from
policy options related to cohesion or competitiveness:
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population ageing
new energy paradigm
climate change
accelerating globalisation
European geopolitical environment
Market forces and general evolution of European society have
important impacts, compared to those of public policies
Present policies (including those related to competitiveness
and cohesion) are not sufficient. New, rather ambitious and
future-oriented policies have to be developed.
How to shape a desirable territorial perspective
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It will not eliminate all territorial disparities and
shortcomings because inertia and market forces are
strong and resources are limited
It has to ensure that short-term benefits do not
generate long-term drawbacks
Territorialising the European Social Model: The search
of equity should not inhibit and offset real
development opportunities, but fostering development
potentials should not lead to rising inequalities
Some elements of reflection for policy
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Within the current societal model, policy cannot change some
of the fundamental evolutions, it has to adapt: depopulation of
some areas (« intelligent shrinking »), metropolitanisation of the
knowledge economy (face-to-face), climate change impacts in
the short and medium term
Giving up public control of many aspects of economic and
societal activities, means a reinforcement of the dominance of
market forces in the shaping of our territories
To reach the territorial goals important public investments have
to be made: where should the money come from ?
A desirable territorial perspective is a real choice of society to
which a variety of public, sectoral policies have to contribute:
education, innovation, transport, CAP, etc
National, regional and local policies very important for reaching
territorial development goals
FUTURE TERRITORIAL CHALLENGES AND
STRUCTURAL POLICIES
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Many of the identified future territorial challenges will be
significant for the less-favoured regions, both in terms of
problems and potentialities
Resources are necessary for: attracting retirees, counteracting
economic marginalisation and out-migration, developing
prevention and mitigation measures against natural hazards,
drawing benefits from renewable energy sources, developing
efficient measures of socio-economic and cultural integration
While the Strategic Guidelines and the Funds Regulations have
only partially addressed the whole range of emerging territorial
challenges, there is a need to consider them comprehensively
in the implementation of structural policies (2007-2013) and in
the argumentation for a continuation of Structural Policies after
2013