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Spatial Scenarios for the European Territory Jacques ROBERT TERSYN (Strasbourg) Before looking at the future: existing disparities Characteristics of the scenario project Main objective: Awareness-raising about new territorial challenges, search of appropriate policy responses and revisiting issues related to the debate cohesion/competitiveness Tool: Showing various possibilities for the long-term evolution (2030) of the European territory Approach: Two series of scenarios: 1. Large number of thematic, exploratory scenarios related to driving forces taken separately 2. Small number of integrative territorial scenarios around the policy orientations of cohesion and competitiveness Method: Combination of qualitative/speculative and quantitative foresight investigations Examples of exploratory, thematic scenarios European borders open to immigration Growing socio-cultural tensions and insufficient integration policies More investments in motorways Rural evolution in a context of open markets and reduced CAP support Climate change: repairing instead of preventing Europe after oil peaking Europe as a market place: EU widening (40 EU member countries) What trends show: Population ageing Impacts of progressing globalisation New segments of the European economy subject to external competition high-tech products, agri-products, services) Stronger territorial concentration of the benefits of globalisation; increasing number of regions negatively affected; Handicap of the fragmentation of the European economy (stronger sensitiveness to external mergers; risk of outmigration of decision centres and high-level business functions European neighbourhood: demographic pressure from south and south-east; demographic depression in the east; intensification of traffic flows and needs for infrastructure development; economic cooperation/competition and integration of economic systems; European energy dependence (Russia, North Africa) Impacts of the new energy paradigm • • • • • • • Location of energy-intensive activities; Evolution of mobility; substitution through telecom services; Evolution of settlements (compact cities?) Opportunities for regions with renewable energy sources Opportunities for regions developing new energy technologies Negative impacts on the accessibility of remote regions; Likely positive impacts on the urban environment (hydrogen technologies) • Risks related to: the revival of nuclear energy; the competition between food and energy production in rural areas; environmental damages resulting from intensive energyrelated agriculture and forestry. Impacts of climate change Structural impacts: - drought in southern Europe (impacts on the economy, the environment and the production of hydro-electricity) - mountain regions dependent upon winter tourism; - potential positive impacts on the northern half of Europe (new opportunities for rural areas and for winter tourism in the Nordic countries) Impacts of natural hazards: river valleys, coastal areas, forest areas in southern Europe; Less prosperous regions have less resources to allocate to prevention and mitigation measures Transport challenges • Further intensification of traffic flows; saturation of main corridors; transfer of flows to secondary networks • Significant programmes of motorway construction being carried out or programmed (environmental impact? Coherence with the new energy paradigm?) • Strong development of air traffic (low cost companies; positive impacts on the accessibility of remote regions; strong dependence upon energy prices; environmental impacts?) • Low progress of maritime and rail freight traffic • Progress of the HST network: contributes to the expansion of the pentagon Scenarios’ features The European backbone: areas of concentration of flows and activities Future territorial challenges and structural policies Many of the identified future territorial challenges will be significant for the less-favoured regions, both in terms of problems and potentialities Resources are necessary for: attracting retirees, counteracting economic marginalisation and outmigration, developing prevention and mitigation measures against natural hazards, drawing benefits from renewable energy sources, developing efficient measures of socio-economic and cultural integration While the Strategic Guidelines and the Funds Regulations have only partially addressed the whole range of emerging territorial challenges, there is a need to consider them comprehensively in the implementation of structural policies (2007-2013) and in the argumentation for a continuation of Structural Policies after 2013