Transcript ET2050_ESPON_MC_BRU_BASELINE_Mcrit_(280912)

ET2050
Baseline 2030
Project Specification Approach
Complementary approaches to define Scenarios
Speculative Narratives as
starting point to Explore
distant Futures. Narratives
use to be Normative
Scenarios, or Visions
(Desired Scenarios). The
consistency (as well as
likelyhood) of Speculative
Narratives can be analysed
typically by backcast
modelling. It is mostly a
policy-based approach.
Present Situation and
Predictions, as starting
point to define Predictive
Scenarios, or possible
futures. It is mostly a
quantitative,scientific-based
approach, using forecast
modelling tools.
What’s a Baseline scenario?
•A Baseline is a projection of current trends in absence of
neither new policies nor unexpected events.
•A Baseline should strive to generate consensus, to be a useful
reference for all.
•A Baseline is realistic but not necessarily the most likely future
•A Baseline will not likely comply with most official political
targets
•A Baseline is not the “Worse-case” Scenario.
Baseline definition
Present Situtation as starting point
No significant change in Policies (Limited Adjustments)
Framework Conditions as a consensus
Baseline Key Directions to 2050
• Ageing Population: 540 Minh (>65 from 16% to 27%, stable migration 1,5 M/year)
• Relative Economic Decline: €24.000billion (from 2,3% growth 1970-2010 to 1,4%)
• Growing inequities: 10% with higher GDP/capita captures more GDP growth
• Insufficient Technologic Innovation: R&D budget around 2% of GDP
• More diversified energy sources: 26% RES (Oil price from € 67 / barrel to € 138)
• Climate Change: 35% GHG reduction since 1990 (80% reduction target in force)
• Subverted proximities: 8.600 Bpaxkm within EU (0,7%), 7.000 Btnkm (1,6%) Gateways
• Increasing Urbanisation: 90% urban pop. (50 cities>1 Minh), periurbanisation
• Towards a Multiple-Speed Europe: limited territorial governance structures, EU 1%
• Limited public expenditure (50% 2010, 40% 2050), Public Debt (70% to 50%)
• Not significant progress in relation to the Territorial Agenda main goals
Key Assumptions of Baseline
Total population 1995-2050
(Eurostat EUROPOP 2010)
Migrations 1995-2050
(ECFIN Ageing Report 2012)
Key Assumptions of Baseline
GDP 1995-2050
(ECFIN Ageing Report 2012)
Oil price 1995-2050
(US EIA, AEO2012 Reference case)
World Reference for Baseline
• Population: 9.200 M (Europe from 15% in 1950 to 7% today and 6% in 2050)
• Urban population: 69% (Europe 89% in 2050)
• GDP: € 135.000 billion (Europe from 39% in 1950 to 30% today and 18% in 2050)
• Trade: € 154.000 billion (Europe from 17% in 1950 to 15% today and 9% in 2050)
• Maritime transport: € 145.000 billion ton·km (average 3,7% annual growth, EU 2%)
• Air transport: € 32.000 billion RPK (average 5,0% annual growth, EU 3,5%)
• Tourism: 3.250 million visitors (Europe from 90% in 1950, 45% today and 27% 2050)
• Energy Consumption: 24.300 MTOE (Europe 28% in 1950, 17% today, 9% in 2050)
• CO2 emissions: 64.000 Mton (Europe from 18% in 1950, 15% today, and 5% in 2050)
Baseline Reference World Indicators
Overall
role
of Europe
1950-2050
(Europe
share
Overall
EU role
in the
World 1950-2050
(Europe's share
in the World)
of the World)
100%
Population
Tourism
GDP
Energy consumption
Trade
CO2
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Forecast exercise 2010-2030
by MULTIPOLES, MASST, MOSAIC, METRONOMICA and SASI models
Present Situation as starting point
Policies oriented to promote alternative spatial structures
Framework Conditions as Baseline
Analysis of “Scenario Variants”
(e.g. Worse-Case Scenario)
Promotion of MEGAs
Promotion of SM Towns
Promotion of FUAs
Worse-Case: Fragmented Europe
ET2050 Expectations for Scenarios – Key Directions (DRAFT)
(Associated Spatial Development Patterns)
Promotion of MEGAs
Promotion of FUAs
Promotion of SM Towns
Backcast exercise 2050-2030 by Foresight modelling tools
Speculative Narratives as starting point
Policies oriented to promote alternative spatial structures
Framework Conditions different than Baseline
World Framework Conditions introduced
Analysis of “Wild Cards”
ET2050 Draft Scenarios (trend expectations per scenario, as an example)
The VISION for 2050
From the Project Specifications:
The VISION should provide a coherent framework to formulate
territorial policy actions at different policymaking levels and to
assess and support policy initiatives from other sectors, all with a
European perspective.
The VISION is expected to have a strategic character that allows
giving direction to the policy debate on territorial
development. This project aims at supporting policymakers in
formulating this long-term integrated and coherent vision on the
development of the European territory
A VISION is a dream of a future “ideal Europe”
The VISION for 2050
The European Territorial VISION could include three components:
1. A set of commonly agreed general territorial
objectives and principles, with quantified goals.
2. A series of (non‐binding) policy and governance
recommendations likely to make the realisation of the
VISION possible
3. A series of schematic maps of the European territory
displaying strategic, structuring elements
ET2050
Baseline 2030