Transcript Baseline Scenario

ET2050
Baseline 2030: An Slow Decline
TPG Meeting Bruxelles March 2012
ET2050 Work plan
What’s a Baseline scenario?
Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)
Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)
What’s a Baseline scenario?
What’s a Baseline scenario?
•A Baseline is a projection of current trends in absence of
neither new policies nor unexpected events.
•A Baseline should strive to generate consensus, to be a
useful reference for all.
•A Baseline will not likely comply with most official political
targets, and it can be understood as a pessimistic but still
realistic future ahead.
•A Baseline is not the “Worse-case” Scenario.
•A Baseline is realistic but not necessarily the most likely
future
What’s a Baseline scenario?
•A Baseline is a future evolution “with no drivers”:
•No “Invisible Hand”
Spontaneous Behaviour do not result in social Self-organisation
•No “Technology Panacea”
Neither Technology nor Free Markets are the solution
•No “Political Reforms”
Government is part of the problem
•Exploratory Scenarios could be based on exploring each of
these three drivers (Behaviour, Technology, Government), in
their most optimistic, but still realistic possibilities.
•The VISION is a “Middle Path” –an ideal balance of the
alternative Scenarios trade-off.
What’s a Baseline scenario?
The ET2050 Baseline Scenario:
•Sticks to the principles of Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive
growth as the leitmotifs of European policies, but to a large
extend they will remain rhetoric, and ineffective.
•Build on the Baseline scenarios developed in EU policy
documents and recent studies.
•The Territory is explicitly included in the scenario narratives
•Territorial impacts (passive factor, that generates externalities)
•Territorial conditions (active factor, that induces development)
What’s a Baseline scenario?
Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)
Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)
Anchoring the visionary process!
Long-term heavy trends...
Long-term heavy trends...
Long-term heavy trends...
Long-term heavy trends...
Wildcards (p.e. Global Warming not considered)
Wildcards (p.e. Global Warming not considered)
Baseline
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10.
Slow decline
Ageing Population
Declining Economy
Reactive Values
Reluctant Innovation
Scarce Energy
Subverted Proximities
Polarised Development
Hybrid Geographies
Reforms Bloked
European Deadlock
1.
Ageing Population: Increasing ageing and labour scarcity in Europe due to persistent low fertility rates. More
selected immigration during the next decade, targeted to areas where lower skill jobs are available, as well as
to cosmopolitan centres where more talented people is attracted. North-South internal migration linked to
residential tourism, as well as to rural areas.
2.
Declining Economy. Continuation of present trends of globalisation, free trade, extension of resources
through technological innovation. The gap in GDP and welfare between the EU and developing countries
worldwide is reduced. A growing middle class emerge worldwide. European economy is more dependent on
services and advanced tourism. Reindustrialisation limited to traditionally industrial zones. Increase of local
markets for agricultural products.
3.
Reactive Values. Salaries continue to loose purchase power and consumerism keep private debts high.
Increasing perception of risks. More environmentally sensitive and reactive society. Identities attached to the
territory gain importance, leading to selected closure from foreign activities and cultural influence. More
protectionism and self-sustainability. Overprotected place-based strategies in wealthier communities. Informal
relations still dominant in peripheral and less developed zones and conflictive neighbourhoods.
4.
Reluctant innovation. The new technologic wave of innovations linked to nanotechnologies and
biomedicine, energy and artificial intelligence will take longer than expected. Slow implementation of actual
technologies (e.g. Smart Cities, Electric Grid…) in Europe. Unsuficcient and unproductive research, with
significant but limited exceptions.
5.
Energy Scarcity: Energy prices (oil, gas) rising faster than expected. In addition stronger impacts of Climate
Change than projected by climate researchers, strong restrictive measures to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions (fuel, taxes, emission trading schemes) further reducing economic growth, even if just partially
implemented. More energy efficiency. EU energy dependency increases since renewal resources are less
developed than planned. Growing territorial conflicts linked to resource and risk management, for energy and
also water.
6.
Subvertit proximities. More productive long-distance transport and communications services connecting
selected nodes in Europe to nodes worlwide. Neighboours become more distant and remote places much
closer. Political borders overpassed by flows. Geographic proximities are subverted by networks connecting
from the body to the globe, as well as by Virtual Communities. Paradoxically, this tendency reduces the value
of the territory as position and increases its value as place, and landscape.
7.
Polarised Development. Increasing polarisation among more developed and less developed regions, as well
as between cities in regions and zones within cities, beyond traditional core-peripheral paradigms. Reduction
of financial transfers and solidarity between regions and countries at EU level, as well as Cohesion Policies,
due to the financial shortage of National administrations and growing Populism at National level.
8.
Hybrid Geographies. Extraordinary divers evolution of territorial patterns, from compact cities and nodes
around transport nodes, to more dispers urbanisation, fragmented and specialised developments in a general
tendency towards more relaxed land regulations and increasing land ocupation. Europe become a “Middle
Landscape”, largely composed by fuzzy urban-rural zones, with urban developments and housing customised
to specific people’s and corporative needs.
9.
Reforms Blocked. Increasing financial problems on public services related to social expenditures. Limited
investments on infrastructure, and R&D focused on selected fields. Reduction of solidarity with Third
Countries and increasing international conflicts. Territorial jurisdictions become less efficient, at all
administrative scales. Either populists and technocrats in charge of bureaucracies unwilling to be reformed.
Rising of corporative government. Political power partially transferred to international larger corporations.
10. European Deadlock: No significant advancement of European political integration, but increasing
coordination on fiscal and labour policies among central EU countries while others have specific cooperation
agreements with them, as well as with other neighbouring countries, and other countries worldwide, in a more
complicated and variable institutional geometry.
1. Ageing Population
Ageing Population: Increasing ageing and labour scarcity in Europe due to
persistent low fertility rates. More selected immigration during the next decade,
targeted to areas where lower skill jobs are available, as well as to cosmopolitan
centres where more talented people is attracted. North-South internal migration
linked to residential tourism, as well as to rural areas.
2. Declining Economy
Declining Economy. Continuation of present trends of globalisation, free trade,
extension of resources through technological innovation. The gap in GDP and
welfare between the EU and developing countries worldwide is reduced. A growing
middle class emerge worldwide. European economy is more dependent on services
and advanced tourism. Reindustrialisation limited to traditionally industrial zones.
Increase of local markets for agricultural products.
3. Reactive Values
OkCupid
Reactive Values. Salaries continue to loose purchase power and consumerism
keeps private debts high. Increasing perception of risks. More environmentally
sensitive and reactive society. Identities attached to the territory gain importance,
leading to selected closure from foreign activities and cultural influence (excepts in
cosmopolitan centres). More protectionism and self-sustainability. Overprotected
place-based strategies in wealthier communities. Informal relations still dominant in
peripheral and less developed zones and conflictive neighbourhoods.
4. Reluctant Innovation
Reluctant innovation. The new technologic wave of innovations linked to
nanotechnologies and biomedicine, energy and artificial intelligence will take longer
than expected. Slow implementation of actual technologies (e.g. Smart Cities,
Electric Grid…) in Europe. Unsuficcient and unproductive research, with significant
but limited exceptions.
5. Scarce Energy
Energy Scarcity: Energy prices (oil, gas) rising faster than expected. In addition
stronger impacts of Climate Change than projected by climate researchers, strong
restrictive measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (fuel, taxes, emission
trading schemes) further reducing economic growth, even if just partially
implemented. More efficiency. EU energy dependency increases since renewal
resources are less developed than planned. Growing territorial conflicts linked to
resource and risk management, for energy and also water.
6. Subverted Proximities
Subverted proximities. More productive long-distance transport and
communications services connecting selected nodes in Europe to nodes worlwide.
Neighboours become more distant and remote places much closer. Political borders
overpassed by flows. Geographic proximities are subverted by networks connecting
from the body to the globe, as well as by Virtual Communities. Paradoxically, this
tendency reduces the value of the territory as position and increases its value as
place, and landscape.
7. Polarised Development
Average annual ERDF and CF commitment 2000-2006, mill. EUR
Polarised Development. Increasing polarisation among more developed and less developed
regions, as well as between cities and within cities, beyond traditional core-peripheral
paradigms. Reduction of financial transfers and solidarity between regions and countries at EU
level, as well as Cohesion Policies, due to the financial shortage of National administrations and
growing Populism at National level.
7. Polarised Development
Keeble Economic Potential & Reclus Blue Bannane (1980s)
8. Hybrid Geographies
Hybrid Geographies. Extraordinary divers evolution of territorial patterns, from compact cities
and nodes around transport nodes, to more dispers urbanisation, fragmented and specialised
developments in a general tendency towards more relaxed land regulations and increasing land
ocupation. Europe become a “Middle Landscape”, largely composed by fuzzy urban-rural
zones. Urban developments and housing customised to people’s and corporative needs.
9. Reforms Bloked
Reforms Blocked. Increasing financial problems on public services related to social expenditures.
Limited investments on infrastructure, and R&D focused on selected fields. Reduction of solidarity
with Third Countries and increasing international conflicts. Territorial jurisdictions become less
efficient, at all administrative scales. Either populists and technocrats in charge of bureaucracies
unwilling to be reformed. Rising of corporative government. Political power partially transferred to
international larger corporations.
10. European Deadlock
European Deadlock: No significant advancement of European political integration, but
increasing coordination on fiscal and labour policies among central EU countries while others
have specific cooperation agreements with them. Conflicts with neighbouring countries, and
other countries worldwide, in a more complicated and variable institutional geometry.