Transcript Exercises
BASELINE SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS EXERCISE SES development using country/region storylines Drivers • Factors important for shaping future of your sector (for instance energy, agriculture and food security, health, coastal zone, …) over next 20 years • Some are given (climate change, population growth) • Others are uncertain and will vary depending upon decisions made in region (markets, agricultural policy). Step 1: Identify Drivers to the year 2030 • Think back over last 30 years: what were the key drivers that shaped today’s situation? • Think of next 20 years: what will be the key drivers? • How will these key drivers interact? • Define 4 scenarios • Develop storyline and if possible add quantitative information. Questions to ask Yourself when Developing Storylines • • • • • • • • Would globalisation slow or even begin to reverse? Will we see changed political entities in the future (eg. strong regionalisation or resource-based boundaries)? What pressure would climate change put on developing countries which are less resilient to its impacts? Will these pressures be manageable? How co-ordinated will the global political response to climate change be? What relationships might evolve between low-income countries and the rest of the world? What will become of overseas development aid – where will climate change fit in? How high will climate change sit on the political agendas of high and middle-income countries Will mitigation mechanisms be effective? Examples of Questions Towards Development of Storyline for Food Security and Agriculture • What development and investment choices will your country make in order to meet its projected food security needs? • What mix of agricultural production and food imports is desired, and how does this mix enhance or detract from adaptation capacity, vulnerability, and food security of the country? • Will development emphasize globalization and increased reliance on imported food? If so, what type of industrialization is desired and are the resources available to undertake that pathway? • The questions need to be tailored depending on national circumstances. SRES A storylines SRES B Storylines