Transcript ms powerpoint - Climate Land Interaction Project

Case study studies
for input to LTM, Mabel, some NPP
• In Lucid sites with LTM & Mabel: Relative importance of site drivers
and “agents” in different periods, how related to LUC patterns and to
wider changing economic, tenure, population and war/peace
context. (first cut spring 2004, continuing through 2005)
• Comparisons between sites: compare LU patterns and drivers over
time: identify what is common, unique, what common minimum
variables are needed to project LUC in other sites, in region (spring
to fall 2004)
• Possible other sites, e.g., Miombo, Mara, Rwanda, Gibe Valley
Ethiopia, Eastern DRC: update LU, literature searches for drivers &
temporal patterns, and if LC imagery linked to biophysical variables
(fall 2004/ spring 2005)
• Scaling up questions: if/ how/ what patterns and drivers at local
scale represent changes at wider scales (with wider land team,
uncertainty analysis?: fall 2004)
Mini-CLIP – Nov. 2003
Other studies
input to initial and subsequent LU projections
• Urbanization study: rates (how vary with economics, population),
spatial patterns (of urban cover and von Thunen rings of ag &
woodfuel extraction/ planting), projections for E Africa. The rates
may be accelerated in periods of climate change or other major
tiggers. (summer 2004)
• Identify past LU and other strategies people have adopted in
response to climate related events (drought, floods) and trends
through literature review (spring 2005) and in case studies (using
met data from Clair for some sites)
• Examine downscaling & NPP model results of potential distribution
of crops, rangelands and natural ecosystems, compare to current
distribution, examine results of “extreme” event analysis: identify
“hotspots” where current LU systems most vulnerable to projected
climate change (2005?)
Mini-CLIP – Nov. 2003
Role playing simulations:
feed into initializing Mabel and LTM, and evaluation of projected LUC
• Conduct RPS at MSU to finalize method
– DJC fall 2004
• Conduct RPS in East Africa with rural groups and policy
makers to identify agents, drivers, how agents interact &
compete to determine LUC, how drivers interact to affect
LUC, and how groups may respond to climate change
– DJC, Kostas? summer 2005
Mini-CLIP – Nov. 2003
Expert systems 1:
before results of and as inputs to LTM, Mabel, NPP and RCM
DJC, JMO (not expert group): Define bookends with initial LTM
output of region for use in first-cut sensitivity analysis of RCM
– Spring 2004?
Expert groups
• Define broad zones within countries, describe past major drivers
(using low-res LCC maps by Lusch, Qi?)
• Provide idea of major future drivers and patterns within zones, &
relative weight of drivers, for future decades
• Discuss relationship between drivers and available surrogate
variables (what captured and not)
– Ug or TZ in spring 2004 by JMO with Sam or Yanda;
– Kenya and Ug or TZ: summer 2004 with JMO, DJC & Joseph
Mini-CLIP – Nov. 2003
Expert system 2:
following outputs of LTM, Mabel for region
Critique LU modeled projection output:
– How modeled projections are different from their expectations (of
earlier meeting)
– What modeled change is not realistic and why
– What change is under-represented, whether drivers are missing
– 2005? JMO with Sam, Yanda, Joseph et al.
Mini-CLIP – Nov. 2003
Feedback workshops
• Conduct focus group meetings in rural areas, and with policy
makers & scientists, to present project results, ask for
feedback and discuss response strategies
– Years 3, 4
Mini-CLIP – Nov. 2003
Links to LTM, Mabel, LC
• Define bookends with LTM, LC for initial RCM runs
• Define agents, drivers/ surrogates at case study and at
regional levels (Case studies, expert systems, other studies
and role playing simulations)
• Provide zones of expected LU change, drivers, types and rate
of expected change (Expert systems)
• Critique initial and subsequent LU projection model results re
spatial pattern, to refine drivers and model structure (Expert
systems, key informants, feedback workshops)
Mini-CLIP – Nov. 2003
Feedback loop from NPP, Biome, downscaling,
and then to LU & LC projections:
Responses to projected climate change
• Identify “hotspots” where current LU systems most vulnerable
to change due to climate change
• Identify how people in different areas may respond by
changing their land use, migrating, etc. (based on coping
strategies studies, expert system input, key informants, RPS,
feedback workshops)
Mini-CLIP – Nov. 2003