Transcript Africa Strategic Vision 2050

Africa Strategic Vision 2050:
Reponses and Policy
Recommendations
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BY DR. ROBERT M. OKELLO
AFRICAN ECONOMIC FORUM
TUNIS 27 OCTOBER 2010
VISION OF THE AFRICAN
UNION
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“AN INTEGRATED,
PROSPEROUS AND
PEACEFUL AFRICA, DRIVEN
BY ITS CITIZENS AND
REPRESENTING A DYNAMIC
FORCE IN GLOBAL ARENA.”
– AUC STRATEGIC PLAN
2009-2012
STRATEGIC POLICY
INTERVENTIONS
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DRIVERS OF CHANGE (12)
CON
SEQ
UEN
CES
(9)
12 DRIVERS OF CHANGE
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DEMOGRAPHICS
FISHERIES
DISEASES
FORESTS
CONFLICTS
MINERALS
CLIMATE CHANGE
MARKET CHANGE
LAND
PRODUCTION CHANGE
WATER
RULE OF THE GAME
POLICY RESPONSES
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AGRICULTURE
PRESSURE IN THE
MIDDLE
REGIONAL
INTEGRATION
TRADE PREFERENCES
NATURAL RESOURCES
MANAGING AID
URBANIZATION
MIGRATION
ROOM AT THE BOTTOM
APPROACH
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POLICY ENTRY POINT
SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE
RECOMMENDED POLICY
RESPONSE
POLICY ENTRY POINT:
MANAGING URBANIZATION
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSES
SIGNIFICANT
POPULATION
SWITCH FROM
RURAL TO URBAN;
MAJOR DISEASES
(MALARIA,
HIV/AIDS)
CONTROLLED;
END TO ARMED
CONFLICTS;
DEEPER REGIONAL
INTEGRATION
ACHIEVED
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
Population Policies; Decentralization;
Infrastructure; Urban Planning;
Youth Employment
BURDEN OF
DISEASES
Implementation of AU
Commitments; International
Collaboration in vaccine
development.
CONFLICTS
Implementation of REC and AU
Peace and Security Agreements
POLICY ENTRY POINT:
MANAGING URBANIZATION
(Cont)
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSE
SIGNIFICANT
POPULATION
SWITCH FROM
RURAL TO URBAN;
MAJOR DISEASES
(MALARIA, HIV/AIDS)
CONTROLLED;
END TO ARMED
CONFLICTS;
DEEPER REGIONAL
INTEGRATION
ACHIEVED
LAND AND WATER
Investments in Water and Sanitation
Infrastructure
CHANGE IN
STRUCTURE OF
PRODUCTION
POLICY ENTRY POINT:
MANAGING MIGRATION
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSE
Greater Migration within
and Outside Africa;
Increased Rural-Urban
Migration; Greater
Demand for African
Services in Developed
Countries; Greater
Mobility of Workers; Other
Movements due to Natural
Disasters; Migrant
Remittances Increasingly
Significant in African
Economies
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
Decentralization; Regional and
Continental Protocols; Deeper
Regional Integration
BURDEN OF
DISEASES
International Agreements on
Communicable Diseases
CLIMATE CHANGE
Greater African Voice in
International Agreements.
STRUCTURAL
CHANGE IN
GLOBAL MARKETS
International Agreements on
Migration
POLICY ACTION POINT:
ADAPTING AGRICULTURE
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSE
Increased Agricultural
Productivity in Africa;
Greater Impact of
Technological Innovation;
Greater Competition from
Northern Countries
Due to Climate Warming;
Low Agricultural Prices
Demographic Change
Modernization of Agricultural
Production; Structural
transformation of Economies
from Agric to Industries
Burden of Diseases
Integrating HIV/AIDS
Programmes into Agricultural
Development
Climate Change
Adaptation of resistant crops;
intensive agriculture;
irrigation; Diversification.
Land and Soils
Land Reforms; Adaptation of
New Technologies; Fertilizers.
POLICY ACTION POINT:
ADAPTING AGRICULTURE
(Cont)
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSE
Increased Agricultural
Production in Africa;
Greater Impact of
Technological
Innovation;
Greater Competition
from Northern Countries
Due to
Climate Warming; Low
Agricultural Prices
Water
Water Preservation Technologies;
Adoption of IWRM
National/Regional
Fisheries
Capacity Building; Technology;
Sustainable Management.
Forestry
Forest Conservation and Tree
Planting; Intensive Agriculture.
Structural Change in
Production
GM Crops; Technology Innovation;
Structural Change in
the Global Market
New Markets in Emerging
Economies
POLICY ENTRY POINT:
MANAGING THE RESOURCE
CURSE
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSE
Current Known
Resources will be
Depleted; New
Sources will be
discovered; Decline in
Value of Natural
Resources (Technology
Change and Depletion).
Conflicts
Special Needs of Local
Population; Regional
“Compacts” on Peace and
Security.
Forestry
Improved Institutions for
Sustainable Mgt.; Alternative
Energy
Minerals
Value Addition; Institutional
Capacity for Effective Mgt.;
Avoid Dutch Disease
POLICY ENTRY POINT:
MANAGING THE RESOURCE
CURSE (Cont)
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
Current Known Resources Structural Change in
will be Depleted;
Global Market - Energy
New Sources will be
discovered;
Decline in Value of Natural
Resources (Technology
Change and Depletion).
Structural Change in
Production
POLICY RESPONSE
Adequate Governance
Institutions; Enabling
Environment; Develop
Value Chains
(Upstream/Downstream);
Avoid Dutch Disease;
Good Geological Surveys;
Credible Regional
Institutional Framework
POLICY ENTRY POINT:
BREAKING IN AT BOTTOM
SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
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POLICY RESPONSE
Well Established Policies
in Place;
Burden of Disease
Integrate HIV/AIDS into
national programmes .
Private Sector Developed;
Industrial Agglomeration
in Mega Urban Clusters;
Structural Change in
Global Markets
Efficient Infrastructure;
Technological Innovation;
Global Competitiveness
Structural Change in
Production
Improve competitiveness;
Diversification of economies;
Industrial Agglomeration;
Technology and innovation.
Develop Trade in Tasks;
Technological Adaptation and
Innovation; Institutional
Transformation for Capital
Deepening
POLICY ENTRY POINTS:
MOVING UP THE MIDDLE
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSE
Africa’s Middle Income
Countries Achieved
Industrial Agglomeration
and Competitiveness and
Expanded Trade.
Demographics
Implement Policies for
Demographic Transition.
Institute Capacity
Development for Youth.
Structural Change in
Global Markets
Accelerate Productivity;
Diversify manufacturing
Structural Change in
Production
Invest in Local Knowledge;
Increased Public and
Private Investment.
POLICY ENTRY POINTS:
REGIONAL INTEGRATION
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSE
AEC Fully established
and Deeper Integration
Achieved. Free
Movement of People
Results in Mega-Urban
Areas in Coastal Areas.
Peace and Security
Largely Achieved.
Africa Fully Integrated
into Global Market
Including Linked
Infrastructure.
Water
Strengthen Riparian Agreements;
Implement IWRM Systems at Basin
Level; Improve Water Transport
Systems, including PPP Operations.
Energy
Develop Joint Regional Facilities:
Oil Refineries; Oil/Gas Pipelines;
Power Generating and Distribution.
Develop Regional Transport
Systems.
Structural Change in
Production
Develop Manufacturing in Coastal
Mega Urban Areas; Implement
PIDA including TAH and Railways;
Connect Africa to Europe and Asia.
POLICY ENTRY POINT:
TRADE PREFERENCES
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSE
Africa Reduces its
Dependence on Markets
in Developed Countries.
Special EU and US Trade
Preferences with Africa
Less Significant. WTO
Rules More Relevant.
Rules of the Game
Trade Negotiations Include
Trade in Tasks. Consistency
Between EPA/AGOA and WTO
POLICY ENTRY POINT:
MANAGING AID
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SCENARIO
KEY DRIVERS
POLICY RESPONSE
Influence of G8
Significantly Diminished.
Aid to Africa from Former
Colonial Countries Less
Significant. Relative
Poverty of Africa Much
Reduced.
Rules of the Game
Increased Levels of Public and
Private Savings to Boost Domestic
Investment and Growth. Efficient
Taxation System.
AFDB STRATEGIC
ORIENTATION
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S U P P O R T I N G G O O D G O V E R N A N C E
B U I L D I N G T E C H N I C A L S K I L L S A N D C A P A C I T I E S
P R O M O T I N G P R I V A T E S E C T O R
S U P P O R T I N G R E G I O N A L I N T E G R A T I O N
I N F R A S T R U C T U R E D E V E L O P M E N T
ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION:
Supporting Good Governance
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I M P L E M E N T A T I O N A G R E E D R E G I O N A L P R O G R A M M E S ( A P R M ,
INRM/IWRM PROGRAMMES)
S T R E N G H T H E N I N G F R A G I L E S T A T E S
ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION:
Building Technical Capacity
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 BUILDING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL CENTRES OF EXCELLNCE
P R O M O T I N G P P P I N A F R I C A
ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION:
Promoting Private Sector
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 PROMOTE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT FOR INVESTMENT AND
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
 DIRECT SUPPORT TO KEY SECTORS INCLUDING
AGRICULTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE
D E V E L O P M E N T O F M O R E R O B U S T B A N K I N G A N D F I N A N C I A L
SERVICES
ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION:
Supporting Regional Integration
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D E V E L O P M E N T O F E C O N O M I C A N D S O C I A L
INFRASTRUCTURE
A D V O C A T E F O R G R E A T E R A F R I C A N V O I C E I N
INTERNATIONAL FORA
S U P P O R T I N G R E C S I M P L E M E N T A G R E E D P R O G R A M M E S
(HARMONIZATION OF REGULATIONS, PRACTICES
ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION:
Infrastructure Development
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C O N T I N U E L E A D I N G I N F R A S T R U C T U R E P R O G R A M M E U N D E R
NEPAD
S C A L E U P O W N A N D L E V E R A G E O T H E R
INVESTMENT IN
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
P R O V I D E T E C H N I C A L A S S I S T A N C E T O M E M B E R S T A T E S A N D
RECS
S U P P O R T D E V E L O P M E N T O F C O N S T R U C T I O N I N D U S T R Y
AFRICA IN 2050
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