Transcript Slide 1

Working groups
Group
Activities Research activities
I
1-3
Demographic changes, poverty and
livelihood security
4-6
Economic growth, Agriculture
growth national food security,
7-10
Water accounting, productivity &
Environmental water demand
II
III
Facilitator/
Group custodian
Dr. Kanchana Chopra/
Mr. ShilpVerma
Dr. T.Shah/
Dr. Mark Giordano
Mr. A.D.Mohile/
Dr. V. Smakhtin
Points for discussion - Drivers
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Global partnerships in decentralized small scale projects
Nature of trade
Perception of scarcity
Occupational diversification agriculture population
Diversification of agriculture
Political stability, legal drivers , financing
Agriculture water use – 80% to 60%
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Water saving technology
Water productivity
High yielding varieties
Groundwater irrigation
International labor mobility
Hydropower revival
Water pricing
Health and life styles (food consumption patterns)
Regional economic structure and growth
Waste lands and NSA growth
Valuing Environmental services
Points for discussion
• Terms of Reference (TOR) is available for each activity
• Introduction, Overall goal, Objectives, Scope, Milestone reporting
• Assess the adequacy of the scope, milestone reporting of the
activity in relation to the scenarios and drivers developed in the
previous session
• Gaps in the TOR in terms of scope and milestones
• Issues that needs to be assessed with respect to drivers in different
regions
• Data required for the analysis and data sources
• Previous and on going studies conducted in relation to drivers and
their references
• resources persons (Indian/International scientists, NGO’s) as
knowledge banks or as partners for studies
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity – 4
Assessing national food security scenarios to
2025/2050, and issues and implications of world
food trade, biotech, and modernization
1. Gaps
Definition of food security likely too narrow, internal
agricultural policy lacking
2. Scope of the activityRevised version
Change definition of food security, add agricultural policy
as a driver
Prioritizing the drivers and issues (nationally, regionally) to be studied and putting
qualitative and quantitative (if known) for scenarios
3. Drivers
Description
3.1. Trade environment
Towards global free trade (reduction in tariffs, subsidies,
is market development allowed) or the other direction
3.2. Technology
What is the scope for reducing water use, access to
technology-who develops (cgiar?), who gets
3.3 Ag policy
What is it/will it be in terms of its impact on the type of
agricultural output and the location
3.4 Diversification
More or less water needed.
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity - 4
4. Data
5. Data sources
6. Previous studies
7. On going studies (if
any)
8. Resource persons
9. Partners
(national, International)
research institutions,
NGOS
10. Milestone report –
Revised version
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity – 5
Assessing future scenarios of rural livlihood and
occupational patterns
1. Gaps
2. Scope of the activityRevised version
Prioritizing the drivers and issues (nationally, regionally) to be studied and putting
qualitative and quantitative (if known) for scenarios
3. Drivers
Description
3.1. Regional
differentiation
Golden corridors versus hinterlands (Collect data at
regional or sub-regional level to analyze)
3.2. Profitability of
farming and capital
formation
Profitability has declined in recent years, what would
change that? Capital formation range from 8% to 12% of
ag gdp. Incremental capital output ratio of 2 or 3
3.3 Change in rural
structure
If growth continues at 5%+, then the population in
farming will be less than 10% and rural poverty will no
longer be a driver. Possible change in political economy
of agricultural support/taxation.
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity - 5
4. Data
5. Data sources
6. Previous studies
7. On going studies (if
any)
8. Resource persons
9. Partners
(national, International)
research institutions,
NGOS
10. Milestone report –
Revised version
Dani and Subramaniam; Delong
Reporting
back sessionsFormat
Activity – 6
Future sources
of growth of agriculture in general…
1. Gaps
2. Scope of the activityRevised version
Move in front of, or combine with, activity 4
Prioritizing the drivers and issues (nationally, regionally) to be studied and putting
qualitative and quantitative (if known) for scenarios
3. Drivers
Description
3.1. Water/land
intensity relationship
Will the past relation continue (Elas of gross cropped
area goes up from .2 or .6 or down to .1), will
groundwater boom continue
3.2. Funding for
irrigation
Share of public versus private, 50% to 70%
Does the micro-irrigation plan work; canal renovation,
tank renovation
3.3 Institutional change
Efficiency (cover designed area or not), intensity
3.4 Power supply
3.5 Technology
Is it sufficient for agriculture or not
Hybrids/GM go up to 50%; Water saving varieties
developed
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity - 6
4. Data
5. Data sources
6. Previous studies
7. On going studies (if
any)
8. Resource persons
9. Partners
(national, International)
research institutions,
NGOS
10. Milestone report –
Revised version