Transcript Scenario Planning Process Review Final

Scenario Planning Process Review
Gerald Harris and Richard Marrs
Quantum Planning Group
SPSG Meeting – September 14, 2016
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Why use Scenarios for WECC?
• A proven and widely used tool to manage
uncertainty, especially over the long term
• Specifically requested by DOE based on experience
• Allowed for participation of the diverse stakeholders
in the SPSG
• Dovetailed with the modeling process so that
quantitative results could be produced which
supported deeper analysis
Scenario Development is Iterative
Focus
Question
Early
Indicators
Drivers
Results
Matrix
Modeling
Narrative
Scenario Development Process
Focus
Question
Drivers
Members of the SPSG and stakeholders spent two days broken
into four teams, each facilitated by a QPG consultant to suggest
narrative elements for the four scenarios. QPG consultants,
using scenario development techniques including process
template panels, flip charts, post-it notes, and a sequence of
steps guided SPSG members through a process that led to the
narratives. Narratives were drafted based on this work by QPG,
shared with SPSG members and refined over several meetings to
get to the final approved scenarios.
Matrix
Scenario Focus Question
Scenario Driving Forces
Driving forces are trends or factors in the external environment that can have an
influence on the decisions and issues being addressed by the scenarios.
1. Technological innovation in electric supply technology and distribution systems
2. The course of regional economic growth in the WECC Regions
3. The evolution of electric demand in the WECC Regions
4. The evolution of electric supply in the WECC Regions
5. Changes in the regulation of electric power systems in the WECC Regions
6. Changes in federal regulation affecting the electric power industry
7. Changes in social values related to energy issues
8. Changes in society's preferences for sustaining environmental and natural resources
9. Shifts in national and global financial markets
10. Shifts in the availability and price of commodity fuels used in the electricity sector
EPS Scenario Drivers
Key Scenario Driver
Changes in:
Review of Current Trends
Technological innovation in
electric supply technology
and distribution systems
• Continued improvement in solar energy technologies and reduction in costs
• Growing investment and interests in energy storage and advanced battery systems
• Growing investment in information systems at the distribution and customer level,
but a lack of standards or dominant market players
Course of regional economic
growth in the WECC Regions
• States with grow in natural resource extraction and processing leading growth
• Unsteady strength in housing markets
• Growing income disparity restraining growth for the middle class
Evolution of electric
demand in the WECC
Regions
• Insufficient economic growth to significantly change rate of growth in demand for
electricity (within recent historical range)
• Long term drought implications unclear, but potentially significant
Evolution of electric supply
in the WECC Regions
• Growing dependence on natural gas fired supply in light of drought and low gas
prices
• Loss of some nuclear capacity (SONGS) in CA met by natural gas
• Some evidence of market failure in economic dispatch
Regulation of electric power
systems in the WECC
Regions
• Emergence of EPA regulation to move toward clean power and address greenhouse
gas emissions
• Growing interests in alternative performance-based ratemaking options within States
EPS Scenario Drivers
Key Scenario Drivers
Changes in:
Review of Current Trends
Federal regulation affecting
the electric power industry
• Emergence of EPA regulation to move toward clean power and address
greenhouse gas emissions
• Potential for trade sanctions on solar imports from China to impact solar panel
costs for U.S. installations
Social values related to
energy issues
• Intensifying debate about addressing climate change concerns with evidence of
political party polarity
• Concern (may be unfounded) about the costs of shifting to a cleaner power
system
Society's preferences for
sustaining environmental
and natural resources
• Younger and emerging demographic shifting toward increased preference for
sustaining natural resources
• More careful review of environmental impact of fracking development
• Growth in and return to coal generation globally contradicts climate change
policies in some regions
National and global financial
markets
• Global banking systems remain fragile leaving open possibility of sudden
contractions
• Role of the U.S. dollar and Chinese demand growth and excess savings remain
dominant influences
The availability and price of
commodity fuels used in the
electricity sector
• Fracking development being depended upon to keep natural gas prices low for
the medium term
• Coal exports used to offset falling U.S. demand for coal and support coal prices
Most Important and Uncertain Key Drivers and the
Scenario Matrix
High & Wide Spread
Economic Growth in
Scenario 1:
Focus on Economic
Recovery
Scenario 2:
Focus on Clean
Energy
Scenario 3:
Focus on Short-Term
Consumer Costs
the WECC Region
Evolutionary &
Technology Innovation in Electric Supply & Distribution
Current
Patterns
Low & Limited Areas
Breakthroughs &
Paradigm Changing
Scenario 4:
Focus on Long-Term
Societal Costs
Scenarios and the Reference Case
The scenarios evolved from thinking beyond the Reference Case using the key drivers.
The Reference Case was also the basis of our core understanding and starting assumptions for scenario metrics.
The Learning Loop
Narrative
Learning loop
for revising
scenarios
Results
Modeling
The Role of the Joint Metrics Definition Task Force
(JMDTF)
• Recommend quantitative variables that represent
the qualitative narrative to enable modeling the
scenarios
•
•
Requires a combination of research and discussion to
arrive at consensus recommendations.
Stakeholders identify and agree to key quantitative
variables that represent ideas important to the narrative
• The JMDTF takes inputs and suggestions from key
stakeholders to arrive at data inputs for those
variables.
Scenarios-to-Modeling Inputs
Scenarios
Modeling Parameters
• JMDTF recommends
values for each
scenario consistent
with the scenario
narrative , key drivers
and policy
assumptions using
the 2032 Reference
case as a starting
point
Inputs to LTPT and Study
Cases
Data Analysis within the LTPT
• LTPT is a capital expansion (CapEx) model
• Key question: given modeling inputs, where
might additional transmission capacity be
needed in 20 years?
• Current focus on paths rather than lines
Analyzing Modeling Results
Key Factor
Analysis
Comparative
Analysis
Early Indicators
Analysis
Policy
Implications
• Which model variables have significant impacts?
• Generation portfolios and transmission expansion
• Key differences between study case results
• Expected and counter-intuitive results
• Given results and strategic preferences, which
indicators should be monitored to guide investment?
• What would modeling results indicate for future policy
work?
Overview of Key Quantitative Measures in the
Scenarios in 2012 Analysis
Comparative Results of Scenarios
See “2013 Scenario Study Case Comparison”
slide deck
Key Steps for SPSG in WECC Planning Results
in A New Scenario
In 2014 based on SPSG interviews
and an information workshop, a
scenario narrative was created to
capture concerns about the impact
of climate change on electric
reliability creating the Energy, Water
and Climate Change Scenario
(Scenario 5)
Study case
results
Study case
development
• Key outputs
• Key results for
policy
• Scenario or issue
narrative
development
Prioritization
• What key issue
warrant deeper
study?
Where we are today
• Metrics development
Issues Analysis
• Key uncertainties
impacting reliability
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Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Oct 2014
Nov-Dec
• Workshop on
energy,
water and
climate
change
• Risk analysis:
how might
reliability
and water be
affected?
Dec
• Scenario
narrative
drafted
May 2015
• Final scenario
narrative
approved by
SPSG May 5 2015
Late Oct
Mid-Nov
• Discussion
with SPSG:
Scenario
development
started
• Scenario
Planning
Workshop
Scenario 5 Focus Question and Uncertainties
How might changes to temperatures, water availability and water
cost in the Western Interconnection affect electricity grid
reliability, demand, generation availability, and the need for
additional transmission?
• What threats might extreme wildfires pose to the existing transmission grid?
• Can the risks of drought, extreme wildfires, and inaction be assessed?
• Could climate change lead to changes in water availability patterns (amount,
location, timing and costs) in the Western Interconnection?
Part of the work plan for 2016 is to complete the work needed to
run the Scenario 5 study case.
WECC Study Case Development
• Annual Transmission Expansion Planning and
Policy Committee (TEPPC) Study Program
•
•
•
•
•
•
Open Season – A window of time (typically one month) where WECC accepts
Study Requests from any interested party to be performed on the latest
dataset (Common Case, Reference Case)
WECC Staff reviews and summarizes study requests and recommends study
priorities, possible study request consolidations and availability of resources
to conduct studies
Studies Work Group (SWG) and Technical Advisory Subcommittee (TAS)
review the study requests and WECC staff-recommended priorities and then
develop a proposed work plan
TEPPC and stakeholders review the proposed work plan
Draft Study Program for stakeholder review; “Request for Reconsideration”
TEPPC finalizes and approves the Study Program
WECC Study Case Development Cont.
• Study Case Scoping Process
•
•
•
WECC staff get assigned to various studies based on interest and expertise
Regular meetings/webinars with each study requestor (or group of study
requestors) to scope out the details and assumptions of the case
Run Study (GV and/or LTPT)
• Study Case Reporting
•
As a study is complete, the results and meaning are presented to the
following committees/subcommittees:
•
SWG and Study Requestor(s)
•
TAS
•
TEPPC
• Results and Trends of All Findings; year-end
report
SPSG Work Plan 2016-2017
• 2016
•
•
•
•
Finalize inputs for Scenarios, run, and report
Finalize inputs for 20-year study cases, run, and report
Develop study cases for 2017 Open Season (Jan-Feb 2017)
November: SPSG approval item, 2017 Study Cases
• 2017
•
•
•
SPSG review and recommend 2017 study case prioritization
February: SPSG approval item, Next Reference Case (2036/2037)
Review and approve study/scenario metrics as Reference Case, Scenarios,
and Studies are developed
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Questions
Gerald Harris: 415-350-1531
Richard Marrs: 925-420-6545
Quantum Planning Group
San Francisco, CA
We are on LinkedIn
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