Transcript Thinking about the Future 2x

Thinking about the Future
THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE. The way that we think about the
future must mirror how the future actually unfolds. As we have all learned
from recent experience, the future is not a simple extrapolation of linear,
single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in which the
possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be
factored into enterprise strategy development, threat assessment and risk
management frameworks and incorporated into enterprise decisionmaking structures and processes.
Abiliti – contact details
• Abiliti is a consortium of SAP I/S Utilities, I/S Oil & Gas and Energy Strategy
Consulting, Strategic Foresight & Future Management consultants
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Graham Harris
– Email:
– Telephone:
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Nigel Tebbutt
SAP Agile Academy Director @ Abiliti
[email protected] (Office)
+44 (0) 1527 591020 (Office)
奈杰尔 泰巴德
– Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Abiliti
– Telephone:
+44 (0) 7832 182595 (Mobile)
–
+44 (0) 121 342 3998 (Office)
– Email:
[email protected] (Private)
Abiliti:: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©
Thinking about the Future
THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE •
It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive
factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty.
Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of
failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business.
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The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually
unfolds. As we have all learned from recent experience, the future is not a
simple extrapolation of linear, single-domain trends. We now have to
consider ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically
disruptive events may be factored into enterprise strategy development,
threat assessment and risk management frameworks and incorporated into
enterprise decision-making structures and processes.
Thinking about the Future
THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE •
Managers and organisations often aim to “stay focused” and maintain a
narrow perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and
targets. A concentration of focus may risk overlooking those Weak Signals
indicating potential issues and events, agents and catalysts of change. These
Weak Signals – along with their resultant Wild Cards, Black Swan Events and
global transformations - are even now taking shape at the very periphery of
corporate awareness, perception and vision – or even just beyond.
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These agents of change may precipitate global impact-level events which
either threaten the very survival of the organisation - or present novel and
unexpected opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to include
weak signals and peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process
may therefore be critical in contributing towards the organisation's continued
growth, success, well being and survival.
Future Taxonomy
There are some 10-20 Primary Futures Disciplines, 20-30
Futures Paradigms and over 250 Secondary Futures
Specialities documented in various sources – covering
Futures Studies, Strategic Foresight, Military and Business
Strategy, Economic Modelling and Long-range Forecasting,
Business Planning and Financial Analysis –
Future Taxonomy
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The main objective of any Futures Taxonomy is to identify, capture, analyse and
classify the mainstream Futures Studies, Strategic Foresight and Strategy Analysis
Primary Future Disciplines (20-30) Futures Studies Subjects (20-30) – Regimes,
Frameworks and Paradigms, and then to document the Secondary Future
Specialties (over 250) – Models, Methods, Tools and Techniques – and to order,
group, define and describe both the Primary and Secondary subjects in a
comprehensive, consistent, coherent, complete and logical manner.
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This is the first step towards creating a Futures Body of Knowledge (BOK)
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There are some 10-20 Primary Futures Disciplines, 20-30 Futures Paradigms and
over 250 Secondary Specialities documented in various sources – covering Futures
Studies, Strategic Foresight, Military and Business Strategy, Economic Modelling
and Long-range Forecasting, Business Planning and Financial Analysis
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Primary Future Disciplines – 10-20
Futures Studies Regimes, Frameworks and Paradigms – 20-30
Secondary Future Specialties – up to 250
Primary Futures Disciplines
Primary
Futures
Disciplines
Strategic Foresight
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Political & Economic
Futures
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Science and
Technology Futures
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Environment, Climate &
Ecology Futures
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Entrepreneurship &
Innovation Futures
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Future of Information &
Knowledge Management
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Personal Futures –
Trans-humanism
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Future of Philosophy,
Knowledge & Values
10. Future Beliefs –
Moral, Ethical
& Religious Futures
11. Massive Change –
Human Impact and
Global Transformation
12. Human Futures –
Sociology, Anthropology
and Cultural Studies
1.
Futures Studies
2.
Primary Futures Disciplines
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Futures Studies
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History and Analysis of Prediction
Future Studies – Classification and Taxonomy
Future Management Primary Disciplines
Future Management Secondary Specialisations
Strategic Foresight
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Foresight Regimes, Frameworks and Paradigms
Foresight Models, Methods, Tools and Techniques
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Quantitative Techniques
Qualitative Techniques
Chaos Theory – Random Events, Uncertainty and Disruption
Political and Economic Futures
Science and Technology Futures
Entrepreneurship and Innovation Futures
Personal Futures – Trans-humanism, NLP / EHT
The Future of Philosophy, Knowledge and Values
Future Beliefs – Moral, Ethical and Religious Futures
Massive Change – Human Impact and Global Transformation
Human Futures – Sociology, Anthropology and Cultural Studies
The Future of Information, Knowledge Management and Decision Support
Futures Studies Regimes, Frameworks
and Paradigms
• Pragmatic (Deductive) Paradigm – Rational Futurism
• Extrapolative Paradigm – Pattern and Trend Analysis
• Dogmatic (Dietetic) Paradigm – Reactionary Futurism
• Polemic (Reasoned) Paradigm – Enlightened Futurism
• Dystopian (Fatalistic) Paradigm – Strategic Negativism
• Rejectionist (Humanistic ) Paradigm – Sceptic Futurism
• Mystic (Esoteric) Paradigm – Contemplative Meditation
• Egalitarian (Consequential) Paradigm – Utilitarian Futurism
• Steady State (La meme chose) Paradigm – Constant Futurism
• Qualitative Paradigm – Scenario Forecasting and Impact Analysis
• Utopian (Deterministic, Idealistic) Paradigm – Strategic Positivism
Futures Studies Regimes, Frameworks
and Paradigms
• Entropic (Ordered, Systemic, Mechanistic) Paradigm – Structural Futurism
• Simplexity (Reductionist) Paradigm – Linear Systems and Chaotic Interaction
• Complexity (Constructionist) Paradigm – Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
• Metaphysical (Naturalistic, Evolutionary, Adaptive) Paradigm – Gaia Hypothesis
• Theoretical (Scientific, Forensic, Evidence-based) Paradigm – Empirical Futurism
• Uncertainty (Random, Chaotic, Disorderly, Enthalpy) Paradigm – Disruptive Futurism
• Existentialist Paradigm (Personal Futures) – Trans-humanism, The Singularity, NLP / EHT
• Predisposition (Pre- deterministic) Paradigm – Cognitive Analysis and Intuitive Assimilation
• Quantitative (Logical, Probabilistic) Paradigm – Mathematical Modelling & Statistical Analysis
• Elitist (New World Order) Paradigm – Goal Seeking, Leadership Studies & Stakeholder Analysis
Complexity Paradigms
System Complexity is typically characterised by the number of elements in a system,
the number of interactions and the nature (type) of those interactions. One of the
problems in addressing complexity issues has always been distinguishing between the
large number of elements and relationships, or interactions evident in chaotic
(unconstrained) systems - and the still large, but significantly smaller number of
elements and interactions found in ordered (constrained) systems. Orderly
Frameworks act to both reduce the total number of elements and interactions – with
fewer and smaller classes of more-uniform elements – and with less regimes of
reduced size featuring more highly-ordered, internally correlated and constrained
interactions – as compared with Disorderly Frameworks.
Complexity Paradigms
System Complexity is typically characterised by the number of elements in a
system, the number of interactions and the nature (type) of those interactions.
One of the problems in addressing complexity issues has always been
distinguishing between the large number of elements and relationships, or
interactions evident in chaotic (unconstrained) systems - and the still large, but
significantly smaller number of elements and interactions found in ordered
(constrained) systems. Orderly Frameworks tend to act to both reduce the total
number of elements and interactions – with fewer and smaller classes of moreuniform elements – and with less regimes of reduced size featuring more highlyordered, internally correlated and constrained interactions – as compared with
Disorderly Frameworks.
Linear
Systems
Simplicity
Simplexity
Complex Adaptive
Systems (CAS)
Ordered
Complexity
(element and interaction density)
Disordered
Complexity
Complexity
Complexity Paradigms
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Simplexity (Reductionist) Paradigm – Linear Systems & Chaotic Interaction
– Linear Systems and Game Theory
– War-gaming and Lanchester Theory
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Entropic (Ordered, Systemic, Mechanistic) Paradigm – Structural Futurism
– Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
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Complexity (Constructionist) Paradigm – Complex Systems & Chaos Theory
– Complex Ordered Systems
– Complex Disordered Systems
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Uncertainty (Random, Chaotic, Disorderly, Enthalpy) Paradigm – Disruptive Futurism
– Cosmology
– Climatology
– Black Swan Events - Weak Signals, Wild Cards, Chaos, Uncertainty & Disruption
Complexity (Constructionist) Paradigm
– Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
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Complexity tends to be used to characterize systems with many elements or parts arranged in
a complex or intricate relationship. The study of these complex linkages, relationships, or
interactions between elements is the main goal of network theory and network science. In
science there are a number of approaches to characterizing complexity, many of which are
reflected in this Paradigm. In a business context, complexity management is the methodology
to minimize value-destroying complexity and efficiently control value-adding complexity in a
cross-functional system approach.
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Definitions are often tied to the concept of a "system"—a set of parts or elements which have
relationships among them differentiated from relationships with other elements outside the
relational framework or regime. Many definitions tend to assume that complexity expresses a
condition with numerous elements in a system and numerous instances and types of
relationships between the elements. Simplexity, the sister paradigm to Complexity, helps us to
differentiate between the analysis of complex systems and reduction of complex systems into
multiple simple systems.
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Warren Weaver has postulated that the complexity of any particular system is the degree of
difficulty in predicting system outcomes when the properties of the system's parts and
relationships are known and understood. Other definitions relate Complexity to the
probability of encountering any given condition in a system once the behaviours or
characteristics of the system have been specified. In Weaver's view, complexity comes in two
forms: Disorganized Complexity and Organized Complexity.
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Complexity Map
Complexity (Constructionist) Paradigm
– Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
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One of the problems in addressing complexity issues has always been distinguishing
conceptually between the large number of elements and relationships, or interactions evident
in chaotic (unconstrained) systems - and the still large, but significantly smaller number of
elements and interactions found in ordered (constrained) systems. Order acts to both reduce
the number of elements and interactions - and at the same time creates smaller regimes of
more-uniform, ordered or correlated, interactions.
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Weaver perceived and addressed this problem, in at least a preliminary way, by drawing a
distinction between "disorganized complexity" and "organized complexity".
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Weaver's paper has influenced contemporary thinking about complexity. In Weaver's view,
Disorganized Complexity results from a system having a very large number of parts - say
millions. billions or many more. Though the interactions of these parts in a "disorganized
complexity" paradigm can be seen as random – thus properties of the system as a whole can
be understood by using probability and statistical analysis. System size, therefore, brings with
it a new type of Complexity - all of its own…..
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Organized Complexity, in Weaver's view, resides in the property of a non-random, ordered, or
correlated, interaction between the parts. These correlated relationships create a
differentiated structure which can act as a system and interact freely with other systems. The
coordinated system exhibits properties that are not carried by, or dictated by, its individual
parts. The organisational aspect of this form of complexity compared with other types of
system is that the subject system “develops”, “emerges! or “evolves” without any external
intervention from any form of "guiding hand".
Complexity (Constructionist) Paradigm
– Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
Complexity theory has been used extensively in the field of Futures Studies, Strategic
Management, Organisational Theory and Operational Analysis. It is applied in these domains to
understand how organisations or enterprises adapt to their environment. The theory treats
organizations and firms as collections of strategies and structures.
When organisations or enterprises demonstrate properties of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
- which is often defined as consisting of a small number of relatively simple and loosely
connected systems - then they are much more likely to adapt to their environment and, thus,
survive the impact of change and random events. Complexity theory thinking has been present
in strategic and organisational studies since the first inception of Complex Adaptive Systems
(CAS) as an academic discipline.
Complex Adaptive Systems are contrasted with ordered and chaotic systems by the relationship
that exists between the system and the agents and catalysts of change which act upon it. In an
ordered system the level of constraint means that all agent behaviour is limited to the rules of
the system. In a chaotic system these agents are unconstrained and are capable of random
events, uncertainty and disruption.
In a CAS, both the system and the agents co-evolve together; the system acting to lightly
constrain the agents behaviour - the agents of change, however, modify the system by their
interaction. CAS approaches to strategy seek to understand both the nature of system
constraints and change agent interactions and generally takes an evolutionary or naturalistic
approach to scenario planning and strategy development
Simplexity (Reductionist) Paradigm –
Linear Systems and Chaotic Interaction
• Simplexity • has it’s origins in the field of Science - Jack Cohen (the scientist) and his
collaborator Ian Stewart are authors of the book “The Collapse of Chaos” (1995), a non-fiction
work that attempts to explain chaos theory and complex systems to a general audience.. The
complexity of algorithms and of mathematical problems is one of the core subjects of
theoretical computer science – which prompted computer scientists Broder and Stolfi to
whimsically describe • Simplexity • as a concept worthy of just as much attention as its twin
paradigm, complexity, attracts.
• Simplexity • has been popularised in the book “Simplexity: Why Simple Things Become
Complex (and How Complex Things Can Be Made Simple)” by Jeffrey Kluger – which describes
some of the ways in which simplexity theory can be applied to many scenarios across multiple
disciplines. Kluger offers a look at simplexity in economics, sports, linguistics, technology,
medicine, and human behaviour. Simplexity also provides insight into how futurists and
strategists can improve their frameworks, paradigms and models - by understanding how the
interplay of simplicity (Linear Systems) and chaos (the possibility of random events introducing
uncertainty and disruption) can form both complexity (Complex Adaptive Systems) and also
simplexity (reduction of Complex Systems into an integrated set of linear or simplistic systems
interacting with random events).
• Simplexity • is an intriguing future paradigm that will drive new thinking in many novel,
exciting and surprising directions over the coming years. • Simplexity • is an elegant and
pleasing paradigm which will feature prominently for a good while into the future.
Simplexity (Reductionist) Paradigm –
Linear Systems and Chaotic Interaction
Michelangelo was once asked how he created his sculptures. “I take a stone – and
remove anything which is not required”. – thus demonstrating that a beautiful
artefact may be created by the removal of everything which detracts from the
intrinsic simplicity of that beauty. • Simplexity • shows itself in subtle design that at
first glance appears to be something plain and simple; easy to use as well as beautiful
to behold – but on closer inspection it becomes apparent that the artefact is
constructed from many harmonious layered components. The complex functionality
of the design is muted and disguised as sophisticated components integrated within
the • Simplexity • paradigm of a compelling idea, elegant functional concept or
simple design vision.
In the future, a consumer-oriented Western world, faced with diminishing availability
of natural resource and increased costs - may become less materialistic and
consumption-focused as we are driven to think more carefully about how we use and
recycle valuable possessions. Smart Devices (Laptops, Tablets and Smart Phones) with
intuitive user interfaces are lifestyle accessories and high-status fashion items which
may be continuously and easily personalised, customised and configured to uniquely
respond to their owners changing needs – thus complying with the simple beauty of
the • Simplexity • paradigm.
Simplexity (Reductionist) Paradigm –
Linear Systems and Chaotic Interaction
Already, trade mechanisms are emerging to recycle these expensive • Simplexity •
items for refurbishment and re-sale – as an integral part of a new and emerging
strategy for sustainably acquiring and replacing our artefacts and goods. We already
have has systems and processes in place for re-using and re-cycling vehicles for many
years. This trend will tend to drive manufacturers to make fewer, but better quality
artefacts – and in turn multi-owner consumer behaviour will have to be reflected in
the future Recycling processes - Recovery. Refurbishment and Resale - embedded in
the corporate planning and strategy of manufacturing economies – such as China.
• Simplexity • artefacts will have a longer useful lifespan under multiple owners in
order to continue to offer a Lifetime Cost of Ownership which remains inexpensive in
real terms. This will bring many challenges to manufacturing enterprises – with their
responsibility to recover and recycle expensive items for re-manufacturing,
refurbishment and re-sale - and at the same time have to contend with a
transformation of domestic and export markets in which demand for new goods is
cyclical – fragile when new ideas are scarce - strong when multiple trends are
emerging and interacting. In order to succeed, businesses will become increasingly
transparent, collaborative and interactive with consumers – or face becoming unable
to compete effectively. • Simplexity • artefacts will cost more, but still remain
relatively inexpensive in real terms in order to pander to the perfidious wishes and
desires of western consumers.
Secondary Future Specialties
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Monte Carlo Simulation
Forecasting and Foresight
Back-casting and Back-sight
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
Political Science and Policy Studies
Linear Systems and Game Theory
War-gaming and Lanchester Theory
Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
Integral Studies and Future Thinking
Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking
Predictive Surveys and Delphi Oracle
Visioning, Spontaneity and Creativity
Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition
Developmental & Accelerative Studies
Systems & Technology Trends Analysis
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
Collaboration, Facilitation & Mentoring
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Black Swan Events - Weak Signals, Wild
Cards, Chaos, Uncertainty & Disruption
Economic Modelling & Planning
Financial Planning and Analysis
Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies
Horizon Scanning, Tracking & Monitoring
Intellectual Property and Knowledge
Critical Futures and Creative Thinking
Emerging Issues and Technology Trends
Patterns, Trends & Extrapolation Analysis
Simple Systems & Random Interactions
Cross Impact Analysis and Factors of
Global Transformation and Change
Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market
Research, Analysis and Prediction
The Future of Religious Beliefs - Theology,
Divinity, Ritual, Ethics and Value Studies
Divination – Hermetic, Mystic, Esoteric
and Enlightened Spiritual Practices
Secondary Future Specialties
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Science and Technology Futures
The Cosmology Revolution
– Dark Energy, Dark Mass
– String Theory and the Nature of Matter
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SETI – The Search for Extra-Terrestrial
Planetary Systems, Life and Intelligence
Nano-Technology, Nuclear Physics and
Quantum Mechanics
The Energy Revolution - Nuclear Fusion
Hydrolysis and Clean Energy
Science and Society Futures – the Social
Impact of Technology
Smart Cities of the Future
The Information Revolution – Internet
Connectivity and the Future of the
Always-on Digitally Connected Society
Digital Connectivity, Smart Devices, the
Smart Grid & Cloud Computing Futures
Content Analysis (“Big Data”) – Data Set
“mashing”, Data Mining & Analytics
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Earth and Life Sciences – the Future of
Biology, Geology & Geographic Science
Environmental Sustainability Studies –
Climatology, Ecology and Geography
Human Activity – Climate Change and
Future Environmental Degradation –
Desertification and De-forestation
Human Populations - Profiling, Analysis,
Streaming and Segmentation
Human Futures - Population Drift and
Urbanisation - Human Population Curves
and Growth Limit Analysis
The Future of Agriculture, Forestry,
Fisheries, Agronomy & Food Production
Terrain Mapping and Land Use – Future
of Topology, Topography & Cartography
Future Natural Landscape Planning,
Environmental Modelling and Mapping
Future Geographic Information Systems,
Spatial Analysis & Sub-surface Modelling
Secondary Future Specialties
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Macro-Economic and Financial Futures
Micro-Economic and Business Futures
Strategic Visioning – Possible, Probable &
Alternative Futures
Strategy Design – Vision, Mission and
Strategy Themes
Strategy Development – Outcomes, Goals
and Objectives
Performance Management – Target Setting
and Action Planning
Critical Success Factors (CSF’s) and Key
Performance indicators (KPI’s)
Business Process Management (BPM)
Balanced Scorecard Method
Planning and Strategy
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Modelling and Forecasting
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Threat Assessment & Risk Management
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Layers of Power, Trust and Reputation
Leadership Studies, Goal-seeking and
Stakeholder Analysis
Military Science, Peace and Conflict
Studies – War, Terrorism and Insecurity
Corporate Finance and Strategic
Investment Planning Futures
Management Science and Business
Administration Futures
Future Management and Analysis of Global
Exploitation of Natural Resources
Social Networks and Connectivity
Consumerism and the rise of the new
Middle Classes
The BRICs and emerging powers
– • Brazil • Russia • India • China •
The Seven Waves of Globalisation
– • Goods • People • Capital • Services
– • Ideology • Economic Control •
– • Geo-Political Domination •
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Human Values, Ethics and Beliefs
History, Culture and Human Identity
Human Geography & Industrial Futures
Human Factors and Behavioural Theory
Anthropology, Sociology and Factors of
Cultural Change
Human Rites, Rituals and Customs - the
Future of Cults, Sects and Tribalism
Ethnographic and Demographic Futures
Epidemiology, Morbidity and Actuarial
Science Futures
Infrastructure Strategy, Regional Master
Planning and Urban Renewal
Future Townscape Envisioning. Planning
Modelling and Virtual Terrain Mapping
The Future of Urban and Infrastructure
Master Planning, Zoning and Control
Architecture and Design Futures - living
in the Built Environment of the Future
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Trans-humanism – The Future Human
State – Qualities, Capabilities, Capacities
The Future of Medical Science, BioTechnology and Genetic Engineering
The Future of the Human Condition Health, Wealth and Wellbeing
The Future of Biomechanics, Elite Sports
and Professional Athletics
Personal Futures – Motivational Studies,
Life Coaching and Personal Training
Positive Thinking – Self-Awareness, SelfImprovement & Personal Development
Positive Behavioural Psychology and
Cognitive Therapy - NLP and EHT
Intuitive Assimilation and Cognitive
Analysis
Predictive Envisioning and Foresight
Development
Contemplative Mediation and Psychic
Methods
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Business Strategy, Transformation and
Programme Management Futures
Next Generation Enterprises (NGE) –
Envisioning, Planning and Modelling
Multi-tier Collaborative Future Business
Target Operating Models (eTOM)
Corporate Responsibility / Triple Bottom
Line Management
Regulatory Compliance - Enterprise
Governance, Reporting and Controls
Future Economic Modelling, Long-range
Forecasting and Financial Analysis
The Future of Organisational Theory
and Operational Analysis
Business Innovation and Product
Planning Futures
Technology Innovation and Product
Design Futures
Product Engineering and Production
Planning Futures
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Enterprise Resource Planning and
Production Management Futures
Marketing Needs Analysis, Propositions
and Product Life-cycle Management
The Future of Marketing Services,
Communications and Advertising
The Future of Media, Entertainment and
Multi-channel Communications
The Future of Leisure, Travel & Tourism –
Culture, Restaurants and Entertainment
The Future of Spectator Events - Elite
Team Sports and Professional Athletics
The Future of Art, Literature and Music
The Future of Performance Arts, Theatre
and the Moving Image
Science Fiction & Images of the Future
Interpreting Folklore, Legends & Myths –
Theology, Numerology & Lexicography
Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film
and Arts
Thinking about the Future
Framework
Professors Peter Bishop and Andy Hines at the
University of Texas Futures Studies School at the
Houston Clear Lake site have developed a
definitive Strategic Management Framework –
Thinking About the Future
Thinking about the Future
Professors Peter Bishop and Andy Hines at the University of Texas Futures
Studies School at the Houston Clear Lake site have developed a definitive
Strategic Foresight Framework - Thinking About the Future
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FRAMING AND SCOPING • This important first step enables organizations
to define the purpose. focus, scope and boundaries of the Political, Legal,
Economic, Cultural, Business and Technology problem / opportunity
domains requiring resolution. Taking time at the outset of a project, the
Strategic Foresight Team defines the Futures Study domain, outlines the
required outcomes, goals and objectives and determines how best to
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Strategy Study Definition – Problem / Opportunity Domains: –
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Definition - Focus, Scope, Purpose and Boundaries
Approach - What – How – Why – Who – When – Where?
Justification - Cost, Duration and Resources v. Future Benefits and Cash Flows
Thinking about the Future
2.
ENGAGING • This second phase is about stakeholder management developing action agendas for mobilising stakeholders and opening
communications channels, soliciting collaborative participation and
input. This may involve staging a wide range of Stakeholder Events ,
organising Strategy Communications, Target-setting and Action
Planning, establishing mechanisms for reporting actual achievement
against targets – in order that the Strategic Foresight Team engage a
wide range of stakeholders, presents a future-oriented, customerfocussed approach and enables the efficient delivery of Strategy
Study artefacts & benefits in planned / managed work streams. •
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Strategy Study Mobilisation – Stakeholder Engagement: –
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Communication Strategy
Benefits Realisation Strategy
Strategy Study Programme Plan
Stakeholder, SME and TDA Strategy Study Launch Events
Thinking about the Future
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RESEARCH – HORIZON SCANNING, MONITORING AND TRACKING: •
Once the Strategic Foresight Team is clear about the engagement
boundaries, purpose, problem / opportunity domains and scope of a
Strategy Study - they can begin to scan both internal and external
environments for all relevant input content – information and data
describing extrapolations, patterns and trends – or indicating global
transformations, emerging and developing factors and catalysts of
change – and to search for, seek out and identify any Weak Signals
indicating the potential for disruptive Wild Card or Black Swan events. •
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Strategy Investigation – Content Capture: –
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Factors and Catalysts of Change
Extrapolations, Patterns and Trends
Internal and External Content, Information and Data
Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Systems amd Infrastructure
Thinking about the Future
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STRATEGY DISCOVERY – STAKEHOLDER EVENTS & STRATEGY THEMES •
Here we begin to identify and extract useful information from the mass
of Research Content that we have collected. Critical Success Factors,
Strategy Themes and Value Propositions begin to emerge from Data Set
“mashing”, Data Mining and Analytics against the massed Research Data
– and all supplemented via the very human process of Cognitive Filtering
and Intuitive Assimilation of selected information - through Discovery
Workshops, Strategy Theme Forums, Value Chain Seminars, Special
Interest Group Events and one-to-one Key Stakeholder Interviews. •
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Strategy Discovery – Content Analysis: –
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Data Set “mashing”, Data Mining and Analytics
Stakeholder, SME and TDA Strategy Discovery Events
Discovered Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value
Propositions
Thinking about the Future
5.
STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT • The underlying premise of Strategic
Risk Management is that every enterprise exists to provide value for its
stakeholders. All entities face uncertainty and the possibility of chaos
and disruption. Risk Management is the evaluation of uncertainty. The
challenge is to determine how much risk we are able to accept as we
strive to grow stakeholder value. Uncertainty presents both opportunity
and risk with the possibility of either erosion or enhancement of value.
Strategic Foresight enables stakeholders to deal effectively with
uncertainty and associated risk and opportunity - thus enhancing the
capability of the Enterprise to build long-term value. •
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Risk Management – Value Chain Building: –
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Risk Research and Identification
Uncertainty, Chaos and Disruption
Identified Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value
Propositions
Strategic Risk Management
• Systemic Risk (external threats)
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Political Risk – Political Science, Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight
Economic Risk – Fiscal Policy, Economic Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting
Wild Card Events – Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Weak Signals
Black Swan Events – Scenario Planning & Impact Analysis – Future Management
• Market Risk (macro-economic threats)
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–
–
–
Equity Risk – Traded Instrument Product Analysis and Financial Management
Currency Risk – FX Curves and Forecasting
Commodity Risk – Price Curves and Forecasting
Interest Rate Risk – Interest Rate Curves and Forecasting
• Trade Risk (micro-economic threats)
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–
–
Credit Risk – Debtor Analysis and Management
Liquidity Risk – Solvency Analysis and Management
Insurance Risk – Underwriting Due Diligence and Compliance
Counter-Party Risk – Counter-Party Analysis and Management
Strategic Risk Management
• Operational Risk (internal threats)
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Legal Risk – Contractual Due Diligence and Compliance
Statutory Risk – Legislative Due Diligence and Compliance
Regulatory Risk – Regulatory Due Diligence and Compliance
Competitor Risk – Competitor Analysis, Defection Detection / Churn
Management
– Reputational Risk – Internet Content Scanning, Intervention / Threat
Management
– Corporate Responsibility – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls
– Digital Communications and Technology Risk
•
•
•
•
•
•
Security Risk – Security Principles, Policies and Architecture
Process Risk – Business Strategy and Architecture
Information Risk – Information Strategy and Architecture
Technology Risk – Technology Strategy and Architecture
Stakeholder Risk – Benefits Realisation Strategy and Communications Management
Vendor / 3rd Party Risk – Strategic Vendor Analysis and Supply Chain Management
Thinking about the Future
6.
THREAT ANALYSIS • In most organizations, many stakeholders, if
unchallenged, tend to believe that threat scenarios - as discovered in
various SWOT / PEST Analyses - are going to play out pretty much the
same way as they have always done so in the past. When the Strategic
Foresight Team probes an organization’s view of the future, they usually
discover an array of unexamined, unexplained assumptions tending to
either maintain the current status quo – or converging around discrete
clusters of small, linear, incremental future changes •
•
Threat Analysis – Value Chain Analysis: –
–
–
Threat Analysis, Assessment and Prioritisation
Global Transformations, Factors and Catalysts of Change
Analysed Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value
Propositions
Thinking about the Future
7.
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT • The prime activity in the Strategic Foresight
Process is, therefore, to challenge the status quo viewpoint and provoke
the organisation into thinking seriously about the possibility that things
may not continue as they always have done - and in fact, rarely do so.
Strategic Foresight processes should therefore include searching for and
identifying any potential Weak Signals predicating future Wild Card and
Black Swan events – in doing so, revealing previously hidden factors and
catalysts of change – thus exposing a much wider range of challenges,
issues, problems, threats, opportunities and risks than may previously
have been considered. •
•
Strategic Foresight – Value Chain Management: –
–
–
Risk Planning, Mitigation and Management
Weak Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events
Managed Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value
Propositions
Thinking about the Future
8.
SCENARIO FORECASTING • Scenarios are stories about how the future may
unfold – and how that future will impact on the way that we work and do
business with our business partners, customers and suppliers. The Strategy
Study considers a broad spectrum of possible scenarios as the only sure-fire
way to develop robust strategic responses that will securely position the
Strategic Foresight Programme to deal with every opportunity and threat
domain that may transpire. The discovery of multiple scenarios and their
associated opportunity / threat impact assessments, along with their
probability of materialising – covers a wide range of possible and probable
Opportunity / Threat situations – describing a rich variety of POSSIBLE,
PROBABLE and ALTERNATIVE FUTURES •
•
Scenario Forecasting – Impact Analysis: –
–
–
Possible, Probable and Alternative Future Scenarios
Clustered Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes
Possible Future Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services
Thinking about the Future
9.
STRATEGY VISIONING, FORMULATION AND DEVELOPMENT • After
forecasting has laid out a range of potential Future Scenarios, visioning
comes into play — generating a pragmatic view of our “preferred” Future
Environment – thus starting to suggest stretch goals for moving towards our
“ideal” Strategy Models - using the Strategic Principles and Policies to drive
out the “desired” Vision, Missions, Outcomes, Goals and Objectives •
•
Strategy Visioning, Formulation and Development: –
–
–
Strategic Principles and Policies, Guidelines and Best Practices
Strategy Models and desired Vision, Missions, Outcomes, Goals and Objectives
Proposed Future Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services
Thinking about the Future
10.
PLANNING: = the bridge between the VISION and the ACTION – the
“ACTION LINK” • Here, the Strategy team transforms the desired Vision,
Missions, Outcomes, Goals and Objectives into the Strategic Master Plan,
Enterprise Landscape Models, Strategic Roadmaps and Transition Plans
for organisational readiness and mobilisation – maintaining Strategic
Foresight mechanisms (Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking) to
preserve the capability to quickly respond to fluctuations in internal and
external environments •
•
Strategy Enablement and Delivery Planning: –
–
–
Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Systems and Infrastructure
Planned Future Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and
Services
Strategic Master Plan, Enterprise Landscape Models, Roadmaps and
Transition Plans
Thinking about the Future
11.
ACTING • This penultimate phase is about communicating results and developing
action agendas for mobilising strategy delivery – thus launching Business
Programmes that will drive forwards to the realisation of Strategic Master Plans and
Future Business Models through Business Transformation, Enterprise Portfolio
Management, Technology Refreshment and Service Management - via Cultural
Change, innovative multi-tier and collaborative Business Operating Models,
Emerging Technologies (Smart Devices, the Smart Grid and Cloud Services) Business
Process Re-engineering and Process Outsource - Onshore / Offshore. •
•
Strategy Enablement and Delivery Programmes: –
–
–
–
–
–
Launched Future Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services
Enterprise Portfolio Management - Technology Refreshment • System Management •
Business Transformation – Organisational Re-structuring • Cultural Change • Business
Process Management • Operating Models • Programme Planning & Contrl
DCT Models - Demand / Supply Models • Shared Services.• Business Process Outsource •
Emerging Technologies – Real-time Analytics • Smart Devices • Smart Grid • Mobile
Computing • Cloud Services •
Service Management - Service Access • Service Brokering • Service Provisioning •
Service Delivery •
Thinking about the Future
12.
REVIEWING • In this final phase, we focus on Key Lessons Learned and
maintaining the flow of useful information from the Strategic Foresight
mechanisms and infrastructure – in order to support an ongoing lean and
agile capability to continually and successfully respond to the volatile and
dynamic internal and external environment - through Futures Studies,
Strategy Reviews, Business Planning and long-range Forecasting. •
We also prepare for the next round of the Strategy Cycle, beginning again
with Phase 1 – Framing and Scoping.
•
Strategy Review: –
–
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Reviewed Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services
Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Systems, Infrastructure and Data
Futures Studies, Strategy Reviews, Business Planning and long-range Forecasting
Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston
Outsights "21 Drivers for the 21st Century"
1.
2.
3.
4.
War, terrorism and insecurity
Layers of power
Economic and financial stability
BRICs and emerging powers
•
•
•
•
Brazil
Russia
India
China
5. The Five Flows of Globalisation
•
•
•
•
•
Ideas
Goods
People
Capital
Services
6. Intellectual Property and Knowledge
7. Health, Wealth and Wellbeing
8. Demographics, Ethnographics and Social
Anthropology - Transhumanism
9. Population Drift, Migration and Mobility
10. Trust and Reputation
11. Human Values and Beliefs
12. History, Culture and Human Identity
13. Consumerism and the rise of the Middle
Classes
14. Networks and Social Connectivity
15. Space - the final frontier
• The Cosmology Revolution
16. Science and Technology Futures
•
•
•
•
•
The Nano Revolution
The Quantum Revolution
The Information Revolution
The Bio-Technology Revolution
The Energy Revolution • Oil Shale Kerogen • Tar
Sands • Methane Hydrate • Nuclear Fusion •
17. Science and Society - Social Impact of
Technology
18. Natural Resources – availability, scarcity and
control
19. Climate Change
• Global Massive Change – the Climate Revolution
20. Environmental Degradation & Mass Extinction
21. Urbanisation
Outsights "21 Drivers for the 21st Century"
•
Scenarios are specially constructed stories about the future - each one portraying
a distinct, challenging and plausible world in which we might one day live and
work - and for which we need to anticipate, plan and prepare.
•
The Outsights Technique emphasises collaborative scenario building with internal
clients and stakeholders. Embedding a new way of thinking about the future in the
organisation is essential if full value is to be achieved – a fundamental principle of
the “enabling, not dictating” approach
•
The Outsights Technique promotes the development and execution of purposeful
action plans so that the valuable learning experience from “outside-in” scenario
planning enables building profitable business change.
•
The Outsights Technique develops scenarios at the geographical level; at the
business segment, unit and product level, and for specific threats, risks and
challenges facing organisations. Scenarios add value to organisations in many
ways: - future management, business strategy, managing change, managing risk
and communicating strategy initiatives throughout an organisation.
FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE –
THE ELTVILLE MODEL
There are five viewpoints or lenses from which we may
understand the future: 1). GOAL ANALYSTS
2). EXTRAPOLATION and PATTERN ANALYSTS
3). EVOLUTIONISTS
4). STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS
5). RATIONAL FUTURISTS
FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE –
THE ELTVILLE MODEL
There are five viewpoints, lenses or paradigms – from which we may understand how
the shape of the future might unfold: –
1. GOAL ANALYSTS – Goal Analysts believe that the future will be governed by the
orchestrated vision, beliefs, goals and objectives of various influential, well
connected, integrated and highly coordinated individuals – and realised through the
plans and actions of global and influential organizations, institutions and groups to
which they belong. The shape of the future may thus be discerned by analysis and
interpretation of the policies, behaviours and actions of such individuals and of
those groups to which they subscribe and belong.
•
The Preferred Future – Vision: –
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Goal Analysis
Value Models and Roadmaps
Political Science and Policy Studies
Religious Studies and Future Beliefs
Peace and Conflict Studies, Military Science
Leadership Studies and Stakeholder Analysis
FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE –
THE ELTVILLE MODEL
2. EXTRAPOLATION – TREND and PATTERN ANALYSTS – believe that the past is the
key to the future. The future is thus a logical extrapolation, extension and
continuum of past historic patterns, cycles and trends. As the future develops and
unfolds it does so as a continuum of time past, time present and time future – so
eternally perpetuating the unfolding, extension, replication and preservation of
those historic cycles, patterns and trends that have shaped and influenced actions
and events throughout time…..
•
The Probable Future – Assumptions: –
–
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Patent and Content Analysis
Causal Layer Analysis (CLA)
Fisher-Pry and Gompertz Analysis
Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation
Technology and Precursor Trend Analysis
Morphological Matrices and Analogy Analysis
FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE –
THE ELTVILLE MODEL
3. EVOLUTIONISTS – Global Evolutionists believe that the earth and society behave as
a self-regulating collection of interactive forces and systems. Global climatic,
geological, biosphere, anthropologic and geo-political systems dominate at the
macro-level – and at the micro-level local weather, ecology, environmental, social
and economic sub-systems prevail. The future will evolve from a series of actions
and events which emerge, unfold and develop – and then plateau, decline and
collapse. These actions and events are essentially natural responses to human
impact on ecological and environmental support systems - creating massive global
change through population growth, environmental degradation and scarcity of
natural resources. Over the long term, global stability and sustainability of those
systems will be preserved – at the expense of world-wide human population
levels.
•
The Creatable Future – Opportunities: –
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Evolution - Opportunities and Adaptation
Geological Cycles and Biological Systems
Social Anthropology and Human Behaviour
Global Massive Change and Human Impact
Climatic Studies and Environmental Science
Population Curves and Growth Limit Analysis
FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE –
THE ELTVILLE MODEL
4. STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are
determined via Strategic Foresight and defined by design, planning and
future management – so that the future becomes realistic and achievable.
The future may develop and unfold so as to comply with our positive
vision of an ideal future – and thus fulfil all of our desired outcomes, goals
and objectives – so that our preferred options may ultimately be realised.
•
The Planned Future – Strategy: –
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Linear Systems and Game Theory
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
Future Landscape Modelling and Terrain Mapping
Threat Assessment and Risk Management
Economic Modelling and Financial Analysis
Strategic Foresight and Future Management
FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE –
THE ELTVILLE MODEL
5. RATIONAL FUTURISTS – Rational Futurists believe that the future is, to a large
extent, both unknown and unknowable. Reality is non-liner – that is, chaotic – and
therefore it is impossible to predict the future. With chaos comes the potential for
disruption. Possible and Alternative Futures emerge from the interaction of chaos
and uncertainty with the interplay of current trends and emerging factors of
change. Probable future outcomes and events may be synthesised and implied via
an intuitive assimilation and cognitive filtering of Weak Signals, inexorable trends,
random and chaotic actions and disruptive Wild Card and Black Swan events. Just
as the future remains uncertain, indeterminate and unpredictable, so it will be
volatile and enigmatic – and it will be amazing.....
•
The Amazing Future – Surprises: –
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Disruptive Futurism
Weak Signals and Wild Cards
Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking
Cognitive Filtering and Intuitive Assimilation
Nominal Group Conferences and Delphi Surveys
Thinking about the Future of
Energy…..
How different will tomorrow be?
The energy industry
has one of the longest timelines of any business sector. Decisions
are being made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only
begin to flow fifteen years from now. A power plant approved
tomorrow may be operating for more than half a century.
Increasingly, the cost of many major capital investment decisions
will be measured not in the hundreds of millions, but billions, of
dollars. Investors, in the meantime, have to decide where to put
their bets on technologies that will take many years to develop
and mature
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)
Thinking About the Future of Energy
•
The energy industry has one of the longest timelines of any business sector.
Decisions are being made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only begin to
flow fifteen years from now. A power plant approved tomorrow may be operating for
more than half a century. Increasingly, the cost of major capital investment
decisions will be measured not in the hundreds of millions, but billions, of dollars.
Investors, in the meantime, have to decide where to put their bets on emerging
technologies that may take many years to establish, develop and mature.
•
Inevitably, much will change over those time frames. Unexpected geopolitical clashes
will disrupt markets. Economic performance will be surprising. innovative
Technology will bring in to focus new energy sources and change the competitive
balance. Governments will undoubtedly change their minds on the dominance of
laisez-faire market forces on the one hand, and imposition of regulation and state
ownership on the other - and flip the balance between extremes more than once.
•
Today, the outlook for regulation of carbon emissions creates another layer of
uncertainty. There could be strong pressure to change the fuel choices in the face of
tighter carbon regulations. Or the other hand, the international community may fail
to agree on effective carbon controls, and state legislation and regulation could be
absent, limited or not effectively enforced. There will certainly be much debate as to
whether to rely on markets or regulation to meet climate change targets and goals.
Thinking About the Future of Energy
•
How do we make decisions in the face of such chaos, disruption and uncertainty?
•
“Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis” can play a very useful role. A disciplined
process of scenario development provides a framework for managing the possibility
of chaos, disruption and uncertainty. These are not forecasts or extrapolations.
Rather, they are logical “stories” about alternative futures that force one to think
about the “what-ifs,” the surprises and the range of uncertainties. Think of them as
thought experiments, but grounded in wide-ranging research and analysis. Our
energy scenarios combine structured narratives of how the larger world could
evolve in the future with detailed energy market modeling. Yes, they are thought
experiments, but the objective is to help people to think systematically about trends
and the potential for changes, ruptures and discontinuities. Scenarios, of course,
can be used for any industry or for public policy.
•
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) recently completed a study entitled
“Dawn of a New Age - The Future Energy Timeline to 2030”: which presents three
possible, probable and alternative long-term energy scenarios. The objective of the
study is to clarify the risks and choices ahead. Each of the scenarios examines an
important strategic question about how the world may unfold over the next 25
years and what this means for energy markets (see CERA’s Dawn of a New Age
Scenarios in Brief).
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
Price Index Inflation
Scenario 1 - The Asian Phoenix
•
SCENARIO 1 - What happens if the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, China and India –
along with other countries in Asia Pacific continue to grow at their current rate?
•
The Asian Phoenix Scenario examines the implications of a possible scenario for
energy markets of such a transformed world. In this scenario, Asia reaches 54
percent of world GDP in 2030 and grows from its current 29 percent of world
energy consumption to 42 percent. Continued strong economic growth in Asia
pushes oil consumption to new highs. Tight markets keep prices well above the
last 25 year average price per barrel.
•
One outcome is that the international rivalry and competition for access to oil
and gas resources not only grows but involves new players. “Eastern oil
companies” emerge to compete with the traditional Western companies,
especially in new regions of supply such as Central Asia and Africa. Another
result, perhaps surprising to some, is that coal consumption will grow
substantially, particularly in China and India. Coal powers these nations to new
global standing but it also will become, if without mitigation, an increasing
source of geopolitical tension as climate concerns mount.
Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point
•
SCENARIO 2 - What would happen if oil prices move well above $100 price per barrel
as experienced a few years ago? Could oil and gas lose its current totally dominant
position in the energy sector? These are the questions that the Oil Price Break Point
Scenario explores in the most probable scenario - a world in which oil breaks through
the $100 per barrel barrier for a sustained period of time. In this scenario, it is not
shortage of oil and gas resources as reserves above ground - nor accessible /
exploitable hydrocarbon reservoirs below ground that pushes prices up - but rather
global geopolitical events. This scenario demonstrates how ultra-high oil prices and
global energy insecurity could unleash the second collapse in a double-dip depression
- with a mix of policy and price responses along with enhanced technology innovation
that would propel the worlds major industrial economies to begin finally to break
away from the current massive dependency on hydrocarbon energy sources.
•
In this scenario, one result of government and industry action, and new entrants in
the energy business, is that by 2020, oil no longer has a monopoly grip on the
transportation sector. Other liquid fuels derived from bio-fuels, kerogen oil shale, oil
tar sands, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids and even solid-to-gas (methane hydrate)
technologies jostle for commercial feasibility and market share. Plug-in hybrid sources
may also begin to win market share in such a high-cost energy future,
Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point
•
SCENARIO 2 - Another outcome of high energy prices explored in detail within the Oil
Price Break Point Scenario is progress toward reducing carbon emissions. National
security concerns associated with high oil prices work hand-in-hand with concern
over climate change (see “Aspen Group Declaration of Energy Independence”).
•
Dessertec is investing in a massive Photo-voltaic array the size of Wales – deep in the
heart of the Sahara Dessert. The European Union is planning a European Super-grid
to transmit this energy to consumers. In the UK, there are advanced plans for an offshore Grid to service Wind and Wave power generation farms in the North Sea .
•
The result is that across the U.S., Europe, Japan and even the BRICS - Brazil, Russia,
China and India - new energy policies are embraced that expand investment in
renewable energy, nuclear and emerging carbon capture and storage technologies.
The high oil price scenario also creates strong incentives to improve global energy
efficiency. A feature of the Oil Price Break Point Scenario is that global energy
intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP) in 2030 is reduced
by 32 percent in comparison with the 2005 baseline.
Scenario 3 – Geo-political Fissures
•
SCENARIO 3 - What would happen if public opinion and government support for
globalization around the world wanes as war, terrorism, economic insecurity and
social exclusion feeds increased nationalism, isolationism and protectionism? That is
the question at the heart of the Global Geo-political Fissures Scenario – under which
energy markets could evolve in an entirely novel way as suggested in this alternative
scenario. Diminished economic growth would cause oil prices to tumble back into the
sub $50 range. In this scenario, governments assert more control over the energy
sector. The trend in the electric power industry in many countries is to move away
from competition and toward corporate responsibility with social mandates and more
regulatory intervention-in some cases, even the nationalization of assets.
•
Given the high stakes and uncertainty surrounding the future of energy, there is a
need for structured ways of thinking about how the future may unfold. The next 25
years will be full of surprises. Scenarios can help us better prepare for these surprises
- and perhaps even anticipate those surprises before they impact or materialize.
•
Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA, received the Pulitzer Prize for “The Prize: The Epic
Quest for Oil, Money & Power” and the United States Energy Award for lifelong
achievements in energy and the promotion of international understanding. Vist CERA
at http://cera.ecnext.com.
Scenario 4 – Geo-political Collapse
• SCENARIO 4 -- Global Geo-political Collapse Scenario - Over the next ten
years - the cost of energy of all types climbs above the rate of inflation – then
rises more steeply. Energy Prices begin to become more unstable, oscillating
wildly between High Price / Low Demand and Low Price / High Demand until the price of energy becomes so unpredictable that Energy Commodities
are no longer tradable – so that Energy markets collapse.
• As a result of the Global Geo-political Collapse Scenario - societies around
the world plateau, decline and then collapse due to resource scarcity and
energy shortage. Industrial nations turn inwards to self-sufficiency based
“localisation” economic strategies and solutions. Only societies with access
to sustainable natural resources - clean water, good soil, temperate climates,
maintainable agriculture, and sufficient sources of renewable energy – alone
maintain any semblance of an industrial economy - and so retain a level of
civilization that we could recognize as such today.
Doug Blair - Carnegie Mellon University
Sustainability and the Global
Economy
Economic Sustainability is a characteristic of a
process or mechanism that can be maintained
indefinitely at a certain constant level or state –
without showing any long-term degradation,
stress, impact, decline, failure or collapse.
Sustainability
•
Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or state that can be maintained at a
certain level indefinitely. The term, in its environmental usage, refers to the
potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems, such as the planet's
climatic system, systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries, and the
systems on which they depend. In recent years, public discourse has led to a use of
"sustainability" in reference to how long human ecological systems can be
expected to be usefully productive. In the past, complex human societies have
died out, sometimes as a result of their own growth-associated impacts on
ecological support systems. The implication is that modern industrial society,
which continues to grow in scale and complexity, will also collapse.
•
The implied preference would be for systems to be productive indefinitely, or be
"sustainable." For example, "sustainable agriculture" would develop agricultural
systems to last indefinitely; "sustainable development" can be a development of
economic systems that last indefinitely, etc. A related side discourse links the term
sustainability to longevity of natural ecosystems and reserves (set aside for otherthan-human species), but the challenging emphasis has been on human systems
and anthropogenic problems, such as anthropogenic climate change, or the
depletion of fossil fuel reserves.
Renewable Resources
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
A natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a rate
comparable or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Solar radiation,
tides, winds and hydroelectricity are perpetual resources that are not in danger of being
consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal.
The term renewable resource also has the implication of sustainability of handling and
absorption of waste products by the natural environment.
Nuclear Fusion supports Low Carbon Generation but carries with it problems of both
renewability and sustainability. Nuclear Fission is both renewable and sustainable.
Some natural renewable resources such as geothermal, fresh water, timber, and biomass must
be carefully managed to avoid exceeding the environment's capacity to replenish them. A life
cycle assessment provides a systematic evaluation of renewability.
Petroleum, coal, natural gas, diesel, are commodities derived from fossil fuels and are nonrenewable. Unlike fossil fuels, a renewable resource can have a sustainable yield.
Renewable resources may also mean commodities such as wood, paper, and leather.
Solar power is the energy derived directly from the Sun. It is the most abundant source of
energy on Earth. It is captured by photovoltaic cells, or by using sunlight to heat water. The Sun
ignited about 4.6 billion years ago and will continue for another 5 billion years.
Wind power is derived from uneven heating of the Earth's surface from the Sun and the warm
core. Most modern wind power is generated in the form of electricity by converting the rotation
of turbine blades into electrical current by means of an electrical generator. In windmills (a much
older technology) wind energy is used to turn mechanical machinery to do physical work, like
crushing grain or pumping water.
Hydropower, energy derived from the movement of water in rivers and oceans (or other energy
differentials), can likewise be used to generate electricity using turbines, or can be used
mechanically to do useful work. It is a very common resource.
Combined heat and power (CHP)
•
What is CHP?
•
Who is it suitable for?
•
Combined heat and power (CHP), also
known as co-generation, is the generation
and exploitation of both heat and power
(usually in the form of electricity) from the
same equipment set, in the same place, at
the same time.
•
•
Not only does CHP enable the conversion
of a high proportion of otherwise waste
heat to usable heat, but it is very efficient
because power is generated close to
where it is being used (and thus electricity
transmission losses are minimised). The
predominant fuel used for CHP schemes is
natural gas (62% in 2000). Other fuels
include oil, coal or even renewables (such
as municipal and industrial waste, sewage
gases, biogases, from anaerobic digestion,
biodiesel, gasification etc and wood).
CHP can be used throughout the commercial,
industrial and public sectors. Larger, tailor-made
systems are particularly suited to applications
where there is a high heat demand, such as
hospitals, leisure centres, hotels and industrial
sites with process heating requirements
(especially chemical, brewing and paper
industries).
•
Some industrial processes which use hot water
or steam are suited to small scale (<1MW) CHP,
including the following sectors: chemicals;
textiles and leather; food and drink; rubber and
plastics; engineering; and
agriculture/horticulture.
•
For a site to support a successful CHP
installation, it should typically have a heat and
power requirement for at least 4,500
hours/year (although it could be cost-effective
with fewer operating hours). Generally, the
greater the annual period of demand, then the
greater the benefits…..
Combined heat and power (CHP)
•
How does CHP work?
•
In its simplest form a CHP
system comprises a gas turbine,
engine or steam turbine to
drive an alternator.
•
The resulting electricity is used
primarily on-site. The waste
heat, in the form of steam or
hot water, is collected and can
be used to provide heat for
industrial processes, for
community heating and for
space heating. It can also
provide cooling - using
advanced absorption cooling
technology.
•
Systems vary considerable in
size, from micro turbines (<50
kW) to many MW of electrical
output
Petroleum Reservoir Simulation and Exploitation
Petroleum Reservoir depletion may take place over periods up to and exceeding 30 years…..
•
Reservoir Simulation
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–
–
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The Grid System
The Well Model
Conservation Equations
Geological Mapping, Log Data and
Spatial Analysis
– Reservoir Modelling and Typological
Characterization
• Aquifers
• Salt Domes
– Model Initialization
• Prediction Runs
• History Matching
– Exploitation Modelling
• Depletion Options
• Extraction Rates
• Recovery Extents
– Enhanced Recovery Techniques
• Water Injection
• Gas Injection
•
Reservoir Exploitation
– Economic Modelling for Oil & Gas
Production
– Geological Science
– Transient Well Logging
– Open Hole Logging
– Production Logging
– Subsurface Reservoir Geology
– Exploration Geophysics
– Reservoir Mapping
– Reservoir Modelling
– Heavy Oil Technology
– Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery
• Water flooding
– Reservoir Analysis
– Recovery Prediction
– Injection Design
• Gas displacement
– Reservoir Analysis
– Recovery Prediction
– Injection Design
Typical Petroleum Recovery was 35% until Enhanced Recovery Techniques drove up to and over 65%…..
Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
Sustainability and Global
Ecosystems
Ecological Sustainability. In the past, many
complex human societies (Clovis, Mayan, Easter
Island) have failed, died out or just simply
disappeared - often as a result of either climate
change or their own growth-associated impacts
on ecological and environmental support systems.
Thinking about the Future…..
•
The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds.
As we have learned from recent experience, the future is not a straightforward
extrapolation of simple, single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in
which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be
factored into enterprise threat assessment and risk management frameworks and
incorporated into enterprise decision-making structures and processes.
•
Managers and organisations often aim to “stay focused” and maintain a narrow
perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and targets. A
concentration of focus may risk overlooking those Weak Signals indicating potential
issues and events, agents and catalysts of change. These Weak Signals – along with
their resultant Wild Cards, Black Swan Events and global transformations - are even
now taking shape at the very periphery of corporate awareness, perception and
vision – or even just beyond.
•
These agents of change may precipitate global impact-level events which either
threaten the very survival of the organisation - or present novel and unexpected
opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to include weak signals and
peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process may therefore be critical in
contributing towards the organisation's continued growth, success, well being and
survival.
Futures Studies
• Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the science, practice and art
of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures. Futures studies
(colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to
understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is
a novel, emerging pattern or trend. Part of the discipline thus seeks a
systematic and extrapolation-based understanding of both past and
present events - in order to determine the probability and impact of
future events, patterns and trends.
• Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterday's and today's
changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional content
and strategies, beliefs and opinions, forecasts and predictions with respect
to shaping tomorrow. It includes analysing the sources, agents and causes,
patterns and trends of both change and stability in an attempt to develop
foresight and to map possible, probable and alternative futures.
Foresight
•
Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic planning
horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning and futures
studies (Aguillar-Milan, Ansoff, Feather, van der Hijden, Slaughter et all) - but was also
highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, global design,
massive change, science and technology futures, economic, social and demographic
policy, fashion and design - and the analysis of "weak signals" and "wild cards",
"future trends“ "critical technologies“ and “cultural evolution".
– The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are some
exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is an actionoriented discipline (via the planning link) it will rarely be applied to perspectives beyond a
few decades out. Where major infrastructure decisions such as petrology reservoir
exploitation, aircraft design, power station construction, transport hubs and town master
planning decisions are concerned - then the planning horizon may well be half a century.
– Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what
is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct
multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be
known as positive visions, success scenarios or aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative
scenarios will be a major part of the output of a Foresight study, with the decision about
what preferred future to build being left to other mechanisms (Planning and Strategy).
Strategic Foresight
•
Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent
and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational
ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and
to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures
methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287).
•
Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are defined via
Strategic Foresight and are determined by design, planning and management - so
that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with
our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired
outcomes could thus be fulfilled.
– Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform
to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be
fulfilled.
– Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures
offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a
preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by
discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future
descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives.
Risk Management
•
Risk Management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and
planning. A risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a
sequence of activities using various resources: –
•
Risk Research – Risk Identification – Scenario Planning & Impact Analysis – Risk Assessment – Risk
Prioritization – Risk Management Strategies – Risk Planning – Risk Mitigation
Risk Management strategies may include: –
–
–
–
Transferring the risk to another party
Avoiding the risk
Reducing the negative effect of the risk
Accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk .
•
For any given set of Risk Management Scenarios, a prioritization process ranks those risks with
the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurrence to be handled first – and
those risks with a lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then
handled subsequently in descending order of impact.
•
In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of
risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss -versus risks with higher potential loss
but lower probability of occurrence -can often be misleading.
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
•
•
Scenario Panning and Impact Analysis: - In any Opportunity / Threat Assessment Scenario, a
prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability
of occurring to be handled first - subsequent risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower
consequential losses are then handled in descending order. As a foresight concept, Wild Card or
Black Swan events refer to those events which have a low probability of occurrence - but an
inordinately high impact when they do occur.
–
Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning have become key tools in policy making and strategic planning for
many governments and global enterprises. We are now moving into a period of time impacted by
unprecedented and accelerating transformation by rapidly evolving catalysts and agents of change in a
world of increasingly uncertain, complex and interwoven global events.
–
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis have served us well as a strategic planning tools for the last 15
years or so - but there are also limitations to this technique in this period of unprecedented complexity and
change. In support of Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis new approaches have to be explored and
integrated into our risk management and strategic planning processes.
Back-casting and Back-sight: - “Wild Card” or “Black Swan” events are ultra-extreme
manifestations with a very low probability of, occurrence - but an inordinately high impact when
they do occur. In any post-apocalyptic “Black Swan Event” Scenario Analysis, we can use Causal
Layer Analysis (CLA) techniques in order to analyse and review our Risk Management Strategies –
with a view to identifying those Weak Signals which may have predicated subsequent appearances
of unexpected Wild Card or Black Swan events.
Weak Signals and Wild Cards
•
“Wild Card” or "Black Swan" manifestations are extreme and unexpected events
which have a very low probability of occurrence, but an inordinately high impact
when they do happen Trend-making and Trend-breaking agents or catalysts of
change may predicate, influence or cause wild card events which are very hard - or
even impossible - to anticipate, forecast or predict.
•
In any chaotic, fast-evolving and highly complex global environment, as is currently
developing and unfolding across the world today, the possibility of any such "Wild
Card” or "Black Swan" events arising may, nevertheless, be suspected - or even
expected. "Weak Signals" are subliminal indicators or signs which may be detected
amongst the background noise - that in turn point us towards any "Wild Card” or
"Black Swan" random, chaotic, disruptive and / or catastrophic events which may be
on the horizon, or just beyond......
•
Back-casting and Back-sight: - In a post-apocalyptic Black Swan Event Scenario, we
can use Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) techniques in order to analyse and review our
Risk Management Strategies to identify those Weak Signals which may have
predicted, suggested, pointed towards or indicated subsequent Wild Cards or Black
Swan Events – in order to discover changes and improvements to strengthen
Enterprise Risk Management Frameworks.
At the very Periphery of Corporate
Vision and Awareness…..
•
Foresight and Precognition – Contemplative, mystic, meditative and psychic methods for pre-cognitive
viewing of the future and how the future will unfold. These activities have been recorded throughout
history (Josephus, Nostradamus) and are well known within certain cultures (Central American Indians)
and government agencies (US and Soviet Military) - and may also involve the use of hypnotic or
hallucinogenic states.
•
The Intelligence Revolution – Artificial Intelligence will revolutionise homes, workplaces and lifestyles and new virtual worlds will become so realistic that they will rival the physical world. Robots with humanlevel intelligence may finally become a reality, and at the ultimate stage of mastery, we'll even be able to
merge human capacities with machine intelligence and attributes – via the man-machine interface.
•
The Biotech Revolution – Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health and
longevity: DNA screening could prevent many diseases, gene therapy could cure them and, thanks to
laboratory-grown organs, the human body could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily
available. Ultimately, the ageing process itself could be slowed or even halted.
•
Trans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to expand current human capacities,
supporting the use of future science and technology to enhance human capabilities and qualities, in order
to overcome undesirable and unnecessary aspects of the present human condition.
•
The Quantum Revolution – The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science fiction into science
fact - from meta-materials with mind-boggling properties like invisibility through limitless quantum energy
and room temperature superconductors to Arthur C Clarke's space elevator. Some scientists even forecast
that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator that re-arranges molecules
to produce everything from almost anything. Yet how will we ultimately use our mastery of matter? Like
Samson, will we use our strength to bring down the temple? Or, like Solomon, will we have the wisdom to
match our technology?
At the very Periphery of Corporate
Vision and Awareness…..
•
Renewable Resources. Any natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a
rate comprisable to or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Some renewable resources
- solar radiation, tides, wind and hydroelectricity, nuclear fusion - are also classified as perpetual resources, in
that they will never be able to be consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal. The
term renewable resource also carries the implication of prolonged or perpetual sustainability for the processing
and absorption of waste products via natural ecological and environmental processes.
•
Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or mechanism that can be maintained indefinitely at a certain
constant level or state – without showing any long-term degradation, decline or collapse.. This concept, in its
environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems - such as the
ecology, environment the and man-made systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries - and the planet's
climate and natural processes and cycles upon which they depend.
•
Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It includes both utopian and
dystopian views of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment and geology are
dominated by human manipulation –
–
–
–
•
Human impact is now the major factor in climate change and environmental degradation.
Extinction rate is currently greater than in the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction event
Man now moves more rock and earth than do natural geological processes.
In the past, many complex human societies (Clovis, Mayan, Easter Island) have failed, died out or just simply
disappeared - often as a result of either climate change or their own growth-associated impacts on ecological
and environmental support systems. Thus there is a clear precedent for modern industrial societies - which
continue to grow unchecked in terms of globalisation complexity and scale, population growth and drift,
urbanisation and environmental impact – societies which are ultimately unsustainable, and so in turn must also
be destined for sudden and catastrophic instability, failure and collapse.
Global Massive Change
Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global
capacities and limitations. It encompasses both
utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging
world future state, in which climate, the environment,
ecology and geology are dominated by human
manipulation
Global Massive Change
EA-envision
• Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and
limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the
emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology
and geology are dominated by human manipulation: – Human impact is now the major factor in climate change.
– Species extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass extinction
event – in which 90% of all species were eliminated
– Man now moves more rock and earth than do all geological processes.
Climate Change
•
Most scientists agree that global warming represents the greatest threat to the earth’s
environmental and ecological systems. There is ample evidence that the Earth is heating up average Global temperature has increased by 0.75 degrees Centigrade over the last 150
years. In the last century, however, average temperature has increased about 0.6 degrees
Centigrade (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) around the world – Global Warming is accelerating.
•
From the melting of the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, to the loss of
tropical coral reefs as oceans become warmer, the effects of global warming are clear. Just as
the evidence is irrefutable that temperatures have risen in the last century, it's also well
established that carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has increased about 30 percent
since the start of the Industrial Revolution - enhancing the atmosphere's ability to trap heat.
•
The precise relationship between the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and the higher
temperatures has now been suggested by Professor Richard Alley (Penn State University) and
clearly demonstrated by ice-core data. Most scientists now believe that human activity - the
burning of fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum and environmental degradation (such as
deforestation) - are largely to blame for the global increase in carbon dioxide levels. As of
now, the exact nature of this link is unclear - some scientists cite contribution of greenhouse
gas from natural sources in the Carbon Cycle (such as volcanic activity), however unlikely..
•
The current rate of warning is unprecedented. It is apparently the fastest warming rate in
millions of years, suggesting that Global Warming is probably not a natural occurrence. Many
scientists believe that the rise in temperatures will in continue to accelerate. The United
Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2001 that
the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 and
10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100. This is now considered to be conservative.
Factors of Climate Change
Factors of Climate Change
•
Human Activities
–
–
•
Natural Cycles
–
–
•
Astronomic Periodicity –Orbital (Milankovitch) Cycles and Insolation
Plate Tectonics – Continental Drift, Vulcanicity, Mountain Building and Erosion
Climate Change Processes
–
–
–
•
Consumption of Natural Resources
Environmental Degradation
Radiative Forcing
The Biosphere
The Greenhouse Effect
Climate Characteristics and Mechanisms
–
–
–
–
Energy Absorption Characteristics – Land, Oceans and Atmosphere
Energy Distribution Mechanisms – Oceanic Currents and Global Weather Systems
Biosphere Balancing Mechanisms
Climate Modelling
•
•
•
•
Historic Analysis – Greenhouse Gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Ice Mass Balance and Sea Level
Current Climate - Global Average Temperature, Precipitation and Sea Level - Regional Variation and Trends
Future Predictions - Greenhouse Gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Ice Mass Balance and Sea Level
Climatic Events
–
–
–
–
Extreme Climatic Changes – Storms, Flooding and Droughts; El Nino / La Nina Events
Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Changes
Ice Mass Balance Changes
Sea Level Changes
Human Activities
•
Consumption of Natural Resources
– Fossil Fuel Burning
– Biomass Reduction
– Mineral Exploitation
•
Environmental Degradation
– Land Use Changes
• Deforestation
– Human impact on Land Use due to Agriculture and Forestry contributing
towards the global loss of ecosystems and biomass
• Desertification
– Deforestation due to Human Impact on Land Use extending deserts and
impacting climate change - causing increased aridity and drought
– Urbanisation and Globalisation
– Agricultural, Urban and Industrial Pollution
– Greenhouse Gases
• Water Vapour
– Cloud Formation - Jet Aircraft Condensation Trails
• Carbon Dioxide
– Fossil fuel consumption
• Methane
– Biogenic Methane due to impact of Agriculture and Environmental
Degradation along with Global Warming and loss of Arctic Tundra
• CFCs
– Man-made Greenhouse Gases
Natural Cycles
• Astronomic Periodicity
– Solar Radiation Output
• Solar Radiation Output has increased by about 25% over the last 4 billion years
– Orbital (Milankovitch) Cycles
• Precession, Obliquity, Eccentricity and Inclination
– Solar Cycles
• Insolation Variation and Periodicity
• Plate Tectonics
– Continental Drift
• Continental Aggregation (Pangea, Gondwana etc.) and Dispersal (Oceanic Rift)
– Vulcanicity
• Basaltic Vulcanicity
– Sea Floor Spreading and Continental Rifts – Mid-Oceanic Ridge, Rift Valleys
– Convection Hotspots – Continental Flood Basalts, Mid-plate Oceanic Island Chains
• Andesitic Vulcanicity (Oceanic Plate Subduction Zones)
– Mountain Building and Erosion
• Alpine and Himalayan Orogenies – Horse-shoe Mountain Chains and Plateaus
• Erosion and Deposition – Isostatic Equilibrium, Normal Faulting, Valleys, Deltas
Climate Change Processes
•
Radiative Forcing
– Solar Forcing – Solar Radiation Output
– Milankovitch (Solar Orbital) Cycles
•
The Biosphere - Carbon Cycle
– Geological Activity
• CO2 Fixing – Carbonate and Fossil Fuel Deposition
• CO2 Release - Andesitic Vulcanicity (Oceanic Plate Subduction)
– Biological Activity
• Direct effects - CO2 Fixing and Release via Metabolic Processes
• Indirect effects - CO2 Fixing via Accelerated Rock and Soil Weathering and Erosion
•
Greenhouse Effect
– Water Vapour
• Atmospheric Humidity and Cloud Formation
– Carbon Dioxide
• Carbon Cycle – Atmospheric / Oceanic / Terrestrial / Biomass Carbon Mass Balance
– Methane
• Biogenic Sources - due to impact of Change of Land Use and loss of Arctic Tundra
• Geological Sources – due to escape of Methane from Methane Hydrate Deposits
– NOx and SOx
• Nitrous and Sulphuric Acids - Atmospheric Dispersal of Aqueous Aerosols
– Atmospheric Particles
• Terrestrial (Volcanic) and Extra-terrestrial (Meteorites, Asteroids and Comets)
Climatic Characteristics and Mechanisms
• Energy Absorption Characteristics
– Land
– Oceans
– Atmosphere
• Energy Distribution Mechanisms
– The Ocean Currents
– Global Weather Systems
• Biosphere Balancing Mechanisms
– Carbon State Balance
• Carbon Cycle Input / Output Mechanisms – Carbon Fixing and Release
– Energy Balance
• Forcing Scenarios
• Greenhouse Effect
• Climate Modelling
• Historic Analysis – Greenhouse Gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Ice Mass Balance
and Sea Level Changes
• Current Climate - Global Average Temperature, Precipitation and Sea Level Regional Variation and Trends
• Future Predictions - Greenhouse Gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Ice Mass
Balance and Sea Level Changes
Climatic Events
•
Extreme Climatic Events
–
–
–
–
•
Storms
Flooding
Droughts
El Nino / La Nina Events
Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentration
–
Water Vapour
•
–
Carbon Dioxide
•
–
Carbon Cycle – Atmospheric / Oceanic / Terrestrial and Biomass carbon state balance
Methane
•
•
•
Atmospheric Humidity and Cloud Formation
Biogenic Sources - due to impact of Change of Land Use and Global Warming
Geological Sources – due to release of Methane from Methane Hydrate Deposits
Ice Mass Balance Changes
– Alpine Glaciers
– Sea Ice Shelves – Arctic, Antarctic
– Polar Ice Caps – Greenland, Antarctica
•
Sea Level Changes
– Thermal Expansion
– Ice Mass Contribution
Climate Models
•
Due to the enormous complexity of the atmosphere, the most useful tools for gauging future
changes are 'climate models'. These are computer-based mathematical models which
simulate, in three dimensions, the climate's behaviour, its components and their interactions.
Climate models are constantly improving based on both our understanding and the increase
in computer power, though by definition, a computer model is a simplification and simulation
of reality, meaning that it is an approximation of the climate system. The first step in any
modelled projection of climate change is to first simulate the present climate and compare it
to observations. If the model is considered to do a good job at representing modern climate,
then certain parameters can be changed, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases,
which helps us understand how the climate would change in response. Projections of future
climate change therefore depend on how well the computer climate model simulates the
climate and on our understanding of how forcing functions will change in the future.
•
According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in
climate model performance, the IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase
of 1.8 -4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 -6.4°C by 2100, depending on which emissions
scenario is used. However, this global average will integrate widely varying regional
responses, such as the likelihood that land areas will warm much faster than ocean
temperatures, particularly those land areas in northern high latitudes (and mostly in the cold
season). In Antarctica, however, average summer temperatures are rising – with increased ice
loss. Globally, it is very likely that -as a result of increased climatic energy -storms, floods,
heat waves, drought and other climatic extremes will increase.
Climate Models
•
For Northern Hemisphere temperature, recent decades appear to be the warmest
since at least about 1000AD, and the warming since the late 19thcentury is
unprecedented over the last 1000 years. Older data sets are insufficient to provide
reliable hemispheric temperature estimates. Ice core data suggest that the 20th
century has been warm in many parts of the globe, but also that the significance
of the warming varies geographically, when viewed in the context of climate
variations of the last millennium.
•
Large and rapid climatic changes affecting the atmospheric and oceanic circulation
and temperature, and the hydrological cycle, occurred during the last ice age and
during the transition towards the present Holocene period (which began about
10,000 years ago). Based on the incomplete evidence available, the projected
change of 3 to 7°F (1.5 -4°C) over the next century would be unprecedented in
comparison with the best available records from the last several thousand years.
•
The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios determines the range of future
possible greenhouse gas concentrations (and other forcings) based on
considerations such as population growth, economic growth, energy efficiency and
a host of other factors. This leads a wide range of possible forcing scenarios, and
consequently a wide range of possible future climates.
Climate Modelling
Climate Simulation
•
Energy Balance and Conservation Equations
– Energy Absorption and Loss
– Energy Distribution
– The Greenhouse Effect
•
Climate Modelling
–
–
–
–
–
•
Radiative Forcing and Milankovitch Cycle Models
The Biosphere and Carbon Cycle Input / Output Models
Greenhouse Gas Level Models
Global Average Temperature Models
Ice Mass Balance and Global Mean Sea Levels Models
Paleo-climatic, Historic and Current Data Sets
– Climatic Cycles
– Annual Chronology
– Detailed Records
•
Climate Scenario Analysis
– Data Analysis and Climatic Scenario Modelling Runs
•
Model Initialization and Calibration
– Baseline Data and Prediction Runs
– History Matching and Model Tuning
•
Geographic Mapping and Analysis
– The Atmosphere - Weather Data and Spatial Analysis
– The Oceans – Current / Historic Temperature, Salinity, Currents and Sea Levels
Climate Prediction
•
Energy Balance and Conservation Equations
– Energy Distribution, Absorption and Loss Algorithms
– The Biosphere and Human Impact Algorithms
– The Greenhouse Effect Algorithms
•
Climate Modelling
– Greenhouse Gas Level Models
– Global Average Temperature Models
– Ice Mass Balance and Global Mean Sea Levels Models
•
Historic and Current Climatic Data Sets
– Paleoclimatic Cycles, Patterns and Trends – last 30m years
– Annual Climatic Chronology – last 100k years
– Detailed Climatic Records 1750-Present Day
•
Climate Scenario Projection
– Monte Carlo Simulation and Scenario Planning Runs
– Impact Analysis - Possible, Probable and Alternative Future Climatic Scenarios
•
Future Climatic Data Sets
– Future Climatic Cycles, Patterns and Trends
– Projected Annual and Seasonal Climatology
•
Geographic Mapping and Analysis
– The Atmosphere – Future Weather Data and Spatial Analysis
– The Ocean – Projected Sea Levels, Oceanic Currents and Sub-surface Modelling
Global Warming
•
Examination of changes in climate extremes requires long-term daily or even hourly data sets
which until recently have been scarce for many parts of the globe. However these data sets
have become more widely available allowing research into changes in temperature and
precipitation extremes on global and regional scales. Global changes in temperature extremes
include decreases in the number of unusually cold days and nights and increases in the number
of unusually warm days and nights. Other observed changes include lengthening of the growing
season, and decreases in the number of frost days.
•
Global temperature extremes have been found to exhibit no significant trend in inter-annual
variability, but several studies suggest a significant decrease in intra-annual variability. There has
been a clear trend to fewer extremely low minimum temperatures in several widely-separated
areas in recent decades. Widespread significant changes in extreme high temperature events
have not been observed. There is some indication of a decrease in day-to-day temperature
variability in recent decades.
•
Many individual studies of various regions show that extra-tropical cyclone activity seems to
have generally increased over the last half of the 20thcentury in the northern hemisphere, but
decreased in the southern hemisphere. Furthermore, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has
shown an increase in number since 1970 with a peak in 2005. It is not clear whether these
trends are multi-decadal fluctuations or part of a longer-term trend.
Global Warming
•
Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.74°C (plus or minus 0.18°C) since the late19th century, and the linear trend for the past 50 years of 0.13°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) per
decade is nearly twice that for the past 100 years
•
Current levels of atmospheric CO2 have risen to 430ppm (up 150ppm from 280ppm at the start
of the industrial revolution). Furthermore, the global rate of increase in levels of atmospheric
CO2 is higher than at any time in the last 20,000 years and continues to rise exponentially
(Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University). It is widely agreed that when CO2 levels exceed
500ppm then the tipping point of irreversible climate change will be surpassed – therefore
catastrophic environmental degradation will become inevitable – destroying natural ecosystems
and disrupting agriculture and fisheries with the consequent loss of up to 90 per cent of human
population through scarcity of natural resources, resulting in population drift, war, famine and
disease.
•
Recent research has established a direct correlation between sea levels and average global
temperature. For each one degree centigrade increase / decrease in average global
temperature then there is a corresponding 20 metre rise / fall in sea level (Professor Richard
Alley, Penn State University). The IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase
of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100 – indicating a catastrophic
corresponding rise in sea levels in the range 22 –128 metres.
Global Temperature Anomalies
•
This graph shows annual mean global
temperature anomalies over the period
1880-2001. The zero line represents the
long term mean temperature from
1880-2001, and the red and blue bars
are showing annual departures from
that mean.
As is evident in the graph, 2001 was
second only to 1998 in terms of global
temperature, and the trend has been
toward increasing temperatures at least
since the beginning of the 20th century.
Land temperatures have greater
anomalies than the ocean, which is to be
expected since land heats up and cools
down faster than water.
Sea Level Rising
•
Recent research has established a direct correlation between sea levels and
average global temperature. For each one degree centigrade increase / decrease in
average global temperature then there is a corresponding 20 metre rise / fall in
sea level (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University). The IPCC projects a best
estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 6.4°C by 2100 – indicating a potential catastrophic corresponding rise in sea levels
in the range 22 –128 metres.
•
Global mean sea level has been rising historically at an average rate of around 1.7
mm / year (plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years - which is significantly
larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years. Global Mean
Sea Level is, however, currently rising at nearly 3mm / year - and that rate is
accelerating. Scientists fully expect average sea levels to have risen by 30cm or
more by the year 2100 on a simple projection of these oceanic thermal expansion
figures alone.
•
Depending on which greenhouse gas increase scenario is used (high or low)
projected sea-level rise is projected to be anywhere from 0.18 (low greenhouse
gas increase) to 0.59 meters by 2100 for the highest greenhouse gas increase
scenario. Acceleration of global warming may lead to a ten-fold future Global
Mean Sea Level increase – suggesting a potential 3 meter rise in average sea levels
by 2100 due to small inputs from Thermal Expansion and significant inputs from
Ice Mass contribution.
Climate Change
•
Most scientists agree that global warming represents the greatest threat to the earth’s
environmental and ecological systems. There is ample evidence that the Earth is heating up average Global temperature has increased by 0.75 degrees Centigrade over the last 150
years. In the last century, however, average temperature has increased about 0.6 degrees
Centigrade (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) around the world – Global Warming is accelerating.
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From the melting of the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, to the loss of
tropical coral reefs as oceans become warmer, the effects of global warming are clear. Just as
the evidence is irrefutable that temperatures have risen in the last century, it's also well
established that carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has increased about 30 percent
since the start of the Industrial Revolution - enhancing the atmosphere's ability to trap heat.
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The precise relationship between the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and the higher
temperatures has now been suggested by Professor Richard Alley (Penn State University) and
clearly demonstrated by ice-core data. Most scientists now believe that human activity - the
burning of fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum and environmental degradation (such as
deforestation) - are largely to blame for the global increase in carbon dioxide levels. As of
now, the exact nature of this link is unclear - some scientists cite contribution of greenhouse
gas from natural sources in the Carbon Cycle (such as volcanic activity), however unlikely..
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The current rate of warning is unprecedented. It is apparently the fastest warming rate in
millions of years, suggesting that Global Warming is probably not a natural occurrence. Many
scientists believe that the rise in temperatures will in continue to accelerate. The United
Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2001 that
the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 and
10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100. This is now considered to be conservative.
Climate Change
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Since our entire climatic system is fundamentally driven by energy from the sun, it stands to
reason that if the sun's energy output were to vary, then so would the climate. Since the
advent of space-borne measurements in the late 1970s, solar output has indeed been shown
to exhibit cyclic variation. With 28 years of reliable satellite observations there is now
confirmation of earlier suggestions of an 11 (and 22) year cycle of solar irradiance related to
sunspots - but no longer term trends can readily be extrapolated from this relatively short span
of tine of the data sample.
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Based on paleo-climatic (proxy) reconstructions of solar radiation there is a suggestion of a
trend of about +0.12 W/m2 since 1750 which is about half of the estimate given in the last
IPCC report in 2001. There is though, a great deal of uncertainty in estimates of solar irradiance
beyond that which can be measured directly by satellite instruments, and still the contribution
of direct solar irradiance forcing is small compared to the greenhouse gas. Furthermore, there
are variations in the attitude of the Earth to the Sun (axis tilt and wobble) and cyclic changes to
the orbit of the Earth around the Sun – which affect the amount of radiation actually received
surface at the earth over time
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Currently our understanding of the indirect effects of changes in solar output and it’s impact
on the global climatic system are evolving. There is a clear desire to refine our understanding
of key climatic natural forcing mechanisms – including solar irradiance variation and cyclic
changes in the movement of the Earth – in order to improve our climate models and reduce
the uncertainty around future projections of climate change.
Climate Change
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In addition to changes in the amount of energy received from the sun itself, the Earth's position
and orientation relative to the sun (Earth's orbit) also varies slightly, thereby bringing us closer
and further away from the sun in predictable cycles (Milankovitch Cycles). Variations in these
cycles are believed to be the cause of Earth's ice-ages (glacial episodes). Over several centuries, it
may be possible to observe the effect of these orbital parameters.
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One important factor of particular significance for the development of alpine glaciations on high
ground in Europe, Greenland and Canada is the amount of radiation received at high northern
latitudes in the summer. Cool summers allow more winter snow to remain on the ground of
north facing slopes from one season to the next – allowing the gradual accumulation of snow and
ice year-on-year as a precursor for glaciations. Diminishing radiation at these latitudes during the
summer months would have enabled the winter snow and ice cover to persist throughout the
year - eventually leading to a permanent snow-cap (on land) or icepack (over the ea).
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While Milankovitch Cycles have tremendous value in explaining ice-ages and long-term climatic
changes on the earth, there are other factors which have very high impact on the decade-century
timescale. However for the prediction of climate change in the 21st century, these long-term
factors will be far less significant than other changes - such a radiative forcing from greenhouse
gases.
The Earth’s Movements
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As the Earth spins around its axis and orbits around the Sun, several quasi-periodic variations
occur. Although the curves have a large number of sinusoidal components, a few components are
dominant. Milankovitch studied changes in the eccentricity, obliquity, and precession of Earth's
movements. Such changes in movement and orientation change the amount and location of solar
radiation reaching the Earth. This is known as solar forcing (an example of radiative forcing).
Changes near the north polar area are considered important due to the large amount of land,
which reacts to such changes more quickly than the oceans do.
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Currently the difference between closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) and furthest distance
(aphelion) is only 3.4% (5.1 million km). This difference is equivalent to about a 6.8% change in
incoming solar radiation. Perihelion presently occurs around January 3, while aphelion is around
July 4. When the orbit is at its most elliptical, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion is about
23% greater than at aphelion. This difference is roughly 4 times the value of the eccentricity.
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Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the areas of the
seasonal quadrants, so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit
can be substantially longer in duration. When autumn and winter occur at closest approach, as is
the case currently in the northern hemisphere, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and
therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Thus, summer in the
northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn.
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Milankovitch Cycles
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Milankovitch Cycles are the collective effect of changes in the Earth's movements upon its
climate, named after the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milanković. The eccentricity (E), axial tilt
(T), and precession (P) of the Earth's orbit vary in several patterns, resulting in 100,000-year ice
age cycles of the Quaternary glaciations over the last few million years. The Earth's axis completes
one full cycle of precession (P) approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time, the elliptical
orbit rotates, more slowly, leading to a 21,000-year cycle between the seasons and the orbit. In
addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit moves
from 22.1 degrees to 24.5 degrees and back again on a 41,000-year cycle. Currently, this angle is
23.44 degrees and decreasing.
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The Milankovitch Cycles, or ‘orbital’ theory of the ice ages is now well developed. Ice ages are
generally triggered by minima in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, enabling
winter snowfall to persist through the year and therefore accumulate to build Northern
Hemisphere glacial ice sheets. Similarly, times with especially intense high-latitude Northern
Hemisphere summer insolation, determined by orbital changes, are thought to trigger rapid deglaciations, associated climate change and sea level rise. These orbital forcings determine the
pacing of climatic changes, while the large responses appear to be determined by strong
feedback processes that amplify the orbital forcing. Over multi-millennial time scales, orbital
forcing also exerts a major influence on key climate systems such as the Earth’s major monsoons,
global ocean circulation and the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere.
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Current evidence indicates that current warming will not be mitigated by a natural cooling trend
towards glacial conditions. Understanding of the Earth’s response to orbital forcing indicates that
the Earth will not naturally enter another ice age for at least 30,000 years.
Milankovitch Cycles
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Milankovitch Cycles
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Orbital shape (eccentricity)
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The Earth's orbit is an ellipse. The eccentricity is a measure of the departure of this
ellipse from circularity. The shape of the Earth's orbit varies from being nearly
circular (low eccentricity of 0.005) to being mildly elliptical (high eccentricity of
0.058) and has a mean eccentricity of 0.028. The major component of these
variations occurs on a period of 413,000 years (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). A
number of other terms vary between 95,000 and 136,000 years, and loosely
combine into a 100,000-year cycle (variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present
eccentricity is 0.017.
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If the Earth were the only planet orbiting our Sun, the eccentricity of its orbit
would not vary in time. The Earth's eccentricity varies primarily due to interactions
with the gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn. As the eccentricity of the orbit
evolves, the semi-major axis of the orbital ellipse remains unchanged. From the
perspective of the perturbation theory used in celestial mechanics to compute the
evolution of the orbit, the semi-major axis is an adiabatic invariant. According to
Kepler's third law the period of the orbit is determined by the semi-major axis. It
follows that the Earth's orbital period, the length of a sidereal year, also remains
unchanged as the orbit evolves.
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Orbital inclination
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The inclination of Earth's orbit drifts up and down relative to its present orbit with a cycle
having a period of about 70,000 years. Note: Milankovitch did not study this threedimensional aspect of orbital movement.
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More recent researchers noted this drift and that the orbit also moves relative to the orbits
of the other planets. The invariable plane, the plane that represents the angular momentum
of the solar system, is approximately the orbital plane of Jupiter. The inclination of the Earth's
orbit has a 100,000 year cycle relative to the invariable plane. This 100,000-year cycle closely
matches the 100,000-year pattern of ice ages.
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It has been proposed that a disk of dust and other debris is in the invariable plane, and this
affects the Earth's climate through several possible means. The Earth presently moves
through this plane around January 9 and July 9, when there is an increase in radar-detected
meteors and meteor-related noctilucent clouds.
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A study of the chronology of Antarctic ice cores using oxygen to nitrogen ratios in air bubbles
trapped in the ice, which appear to respond directly to the local insolation, concluded that
the climatic response documented in the ice cores was driven by Northern Hemisphere
insolation as proposed by the Milankovitch hypothesis (Kawamura et al, Nature, 23 August
2007, vol 448, p912-917). This is an additional validation of the Milankovitch hypothesis by a
relatively novel method, and is inconsistent with the "inclination" theory of the 100,000-year
cycle.
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Axial tilt (obliquity)
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The angle of the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) varies with respect to the plane of the Earth's
orbit. These slow 2.4° obliquity variations are roughly periodic, taking approximately 41,000
years to shift between a tilt of 22.1° and 24.5° and back again. When the obliquity increases,
the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in insolation increases, with summers in both
hemispheres receiving more irradiative flux from the Sun, and the winters less irradiative flux.
As a result, it is assumed that the winters become colder and summers warmer.
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But these changes of opposite sign in the summer and winter are not of the same magnitude.
The annual mean insolation increases in high latitudes with increasing obliquity, while lower
latitudes experience a reduction in insolation. Cooler summers are suspected of encouraging
the start of an ice age by melting less of the previous winter's ice and snow. So it can be
argued that lower obliquity favours ice ages both because of the mean insolation reduction in
high latitudes as well as the additional reduction in summer insolation. There may be some
evidence of warmer winters in the northern hemisphere and warmer summers in the
southern hemisphere.
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Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly half way between
its extreme values. The tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum
value around the year 10,000 AD.
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Precession (wobble)
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Precession is the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars,
with a period of roughly 26,000 years. This gyroscopic motion is due to the tidal forces exerted by
the sun and the moon on the solid Earth, associated with the fact that the Earth is not a perfect
sphere but has an equatorial bulge. The sun and moon contribute roughly equally to this effect. In
addition, the orbital ellipse itself precesses in space (anomalistic precession), primarily as a result
of interactions with Jupiter and Saturn. This orbital precession is in the opposite sense to the
gyroscopic motion of the axis of rotation, shortening the period of the precession of the
equinoxes with respect to the perihelion from 26,000 to 21,000 years.
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When the axis is aligned so it points toward the Sun during perihelion, one polar hemisphere will
have a greater difference between the seasons while the other hemisphere will have milder
seasons. The hemisphere which is in summer at perihelion will receive much of the
corresponding increase in solar radiation, but that same hemisphere will be in winter at aphelion
and have a colder winter. The other hemisphere will have a relatively warmer winter and cooler
summer.
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When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion occur near the equinoxes, the
Northern and Southern Hemispheres will have similar contrasts in the seasons. At present
perihelion occurs during the Southern Hemisphere's summer, and aphelion is reached during the
southern winter. Thus the Southern Hemisphere seasons are somewhat more extreme than the
Northern Hemisphere seasons, when other factors are equal. Currently there is significant
evidence of warmer winters in the northern hemisphere, and correspondingly there are warmer
summers in the southern hemisphere.
Climate Change
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Indirect indicators of global warming such as ice borehole temperatures, snow cover, and
glacier recession data, are in substantial agreement with the more direct indicators of recent
warmth. Evidence such as changes in glacial mass balance (the amount of snow and ice
contained in a glacier) is useful since it not only provides qualitative support for meteorological
data, but glaciers are often found in places too remote to support meteorological stations. The
records of glacial advance and retreat often extend back further than weather station records,
and glaciers are usually at much higher altitudes than weather stations, allowing scientists
more insight into temperature changes prevalent higher in the atmosphere - though extending
the Antarctic sea-ice record back in time is more difficult due to the lack of direct observations
in this part of the world.
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Large-scale measurements of sea-ice have only been possible since the satellite era, but
through looking at a number of different satellite estimates, it has been determined that
September Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 2007 at a rate of about -10% +/0.3% per decade. Sea ice extent for September for 2007 was by far the lowest on record at
4.28 million square kilometres, eclipsing the previous record low sea ice extent by 23%. Sea ice
in the Antarctic has shown very little trend over the same period, or even a slight increase
from 1979 to 1995.
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In 1995, however, Larsen Ice Shelf A disintegrated. In 2002 the whole of the Larsen Ice Shelf B
disappeared in just a few weeks – an area the size of Rhode Island in the USA. The mechanism
is thought to be summer liquid water pooling at the surface, filtering down cracks and crevices
and subsequently freezing – shattering the ice sheet
The Climate System
Climate Change
Glacial Ice Mass Balance
Sea Ice Extent
Global Warming
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Clouds are an important indicator of climate change. Surface-based observations of cloud cover
suggest increases in total cloud cover over many continental regions – including areas of increased
urbanization such as tropical Africa and southern Asia. This increase since 1950 is consistent with
regional increases in precipitation for the same period. However, despite regional variation,
analyses of cloud cover over land for the period 1976-2003 shows little statistically significant
overall global change.
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An enhanced greenhouse effect would be expected to cause cooling in higher parts of the
atmosphere because the increased "blanketing" effect in the lower atmosphere holds in more
heat, allowing less to reach the upper atmosphere. Cooling of the lower stratosphere (about
49,000-79,500 ft.) since 1979 is shown by both satellite Microwave Sounding Unit and weather
balloon data, but is larger in weather balloon data (most likely this is due to unidentified /
uncorrected data errors).
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Relatively cool surface and tropospheric temperatures, and a relatively warmer lower
stratosphere, were observed in 1992 and 1993, due to atmospheric volcanic dust following the
1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The warming reappeared in 1994. A dramatic global warming
took place in 1998 - at least partly associated with the record El Niño. This warming episode was
consistent from the surface right to the top of the troposphere.
Global Warming
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Global surface temperatures have increased
about 0.74°C (plus or minus 0.18°C) since the
late-19th century, and the linear trend for the
past 50 years of 0.13°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) per
decade is nearly twice that for the past 100 years
The warming has not been globally uniform.
Some areas (including parts of the south-eastern
U.S. and parts of the North Atlantic) have, in fact,
cooled slightly over the last century. The recent
warmth has been greatest over North America
and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N,
Lastly, seven of the eight warmest years on record
have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest
years have all occurred since 1995.
Global Warming
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Examination of changes in climate extremes requires long-term daily or even hourly data sets
which until recently have been scarce for many parts of the globe. However these data sets
have become more widely available allowing research into changes in temperature and
precipitation extremes on global and regional scales. Global changes in temperature extremes
include decreases in the number of unusually cold days and nights and increases in the number
of unusually warm days and nights. Other observed changes include lengthening of the growing
season, and decreases in the number of frost days.
•
Global temperature extremes have been found to exhibit no significant trend in inter-annual
variability, but several studies suggest a significant decrease in intra-annual variability. There has
been a clear trend to fewer extremely low minimum temperatures in several widely-separated
areas in recent decades. Widespread significant changes in extreme high temperature events
have not been observed. There is some indication of a decrease in day-to-day temperature
variability in recent decades.
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Many individual studies of various regions show that extra-tropical cyclone activity seems to
have generally increased over the last half of the 20th century in the northern hemisphere, but
decreased in the southern hemisphere. Furthermore, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has
shown an increase in number since 1970 with a peak in 2005. It is not clear whether these
trends are multi-decadal fluctuations or part of a longer-term trend.
Global Warming
Recent analyses of temperature trends in the lower and mid- troposphere (between about 2,500
and 26,000 ft.) using both satellite and weather balloon data show warming rates that are similar
to those observed for surface air temperatures. These warming rates are consistent with their
uncertainties and these analyses reconcile a discrepancy between warming rates noted on the
IPCC Third Assessment Report (U.S. Climate Change Science Plan Synthesis and Assessment Report
1.1). .
Storms
Precipitation
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Globally-averaged land-based precipitation shows no statistically significant upward trend - with
most of the increase occurring in the first half of the 20th century. Furthermore, observed
precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century.
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On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the
Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – areas remote from
major cities. Decreases have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia.
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This may be explained by the dramatic increase in air travel from the early 1960s onwards. Up to
10% of global cloud cover is generated by jet condensation trails – acting to both reduce the
amount of energy from sunlight reaching the earth, and also the amount of evaporation of surface
water caused by photon energy in sunlight directly exciting surface water molecules - thus making
them more energetic and increasing overall evaporation.
•
Jet aircraft traffic density is lower in higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, southern South
America and in northern Australia – therefore jet condensation trails have a smaller impact on
reducing evaporation. Clearly, although jet travel contributes greatly to rising greenhouse gas
levels, jet condensation trails act to suppress impact on the environment
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Due to the difficulty in measuring trends in annual precipitation, it has been important to validate
these observations by analysing other related variables. The measured changes in precipitation are
consistent with observed changes in stream flow, lake levels, and soil moisture (where data sets
are available and have been analysed).
Precipitation
Globally-averaged land-based
precipitation shows no statistically
significant upward trend - with most
of the increase occurring in the first
half of the 20th century.
Furthermore, observed precipitation
changes have been spatially variable
over the last century.
On a regional basis, increase in
annual precipitation have occurred
in the higher latitudes of the
Northern Hemisphere, in southern
South America and in northern
Australia – areas remote from major
cities. Decreases have occurred in
tropical Africa and in southern Asia.
Precipitation
On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the
Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – all areas that are
remote from major cities. Decreases in annual precipitation have occurred in tropical Africa and in
southern Asia – all areas of increased urbanisation.
El Niño and La Niña
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El Niño's are not caused by global warming. Clear evidence exists from a variety of sources
(including archaeological studies) that El Niño's have been present for thousands, and some
indicators suggest maybe millions, of years. However, it has been hypothesized that warmer
global sea surface temperatures can enhance the El Niño phenomenon, and it is also true
that El Niño's (and La Niña's) have been more frequent and intense in recent decades.
Whether El Niño occurrence changes with climate change is a major research question.
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A rather abrupt change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation behaviour occurred around
1976/77. Often called the climatic shift of 1976/77, this new regime has persisted. There
have been relatively more frequent and persistent El Niño episodes rather than the cool
episode La Niñas. This behaviour is highly unusual in the last 130 years (the period of
instrumental record). Changes in precipitation over the tropical Pacific are related to this
change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, which has also affected the pattern and
magnitude of surface temperatures. However, it is unclear as to whether this apparent
change in the ENSO cycle is related to global warming.
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In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Niño or La Niña,
these dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Further, there is some
evidence for increasing drought worldwide, however in the U.S. there is no evidence for
increasing drought. In some areas where overall precipitation has increased (ie. the mid-high
northern latitudes), there is evidence of increases in the heavy and extreme precipitation
events
El Niño and La Niña
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In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Niño or La
Niña, these dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Further, there
is some evidence for increasing drought worldwide. In the U.S.A. however, here is
little evidence for increasing continental drought – the exception being the ten-year
regional drought in the South-West, which has reduced water levels in Lake Mead.
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In some areas where overall precipitation has increased (ie. the mid-high northern
latitudes), there is also evidence of increases in the heavy and extreme precipitation
events. Even in areas such as eastern Asia, it has been found that unusual / extreme
precipitation events have increased despite total precipitation remaining fairly
constant - or even decreasing somewhat. This is related to an observed increase in
severity along with a decrease in the frequency of precipitation events in this region.
•
On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher
latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern
Australia – all areas that are remote from major cities. Conversely, decreases in
annual precipitation have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia – all areas
of increased urbanisation and massive expansion in airline activity since the 1960’s.
El Niño and La Niña
In areas where a drought or excessive wetness
usually accompanies an El Niño or La Niña, these
dry or wet spells have been more intense in
recent years. Further, there is some evidence for
increasing drought worldwide, however in the
U.S. there is no evidence for increasing drought.
Even in areas such as eastern Asia, it has been
found that extreme precipitation events have
increased despite total precipitation remaining
constant or even decreasing somewhat. This is
related to an increase in severity and decrease in
the frequency of precipitation in this region.
Sea Level Rising – Historic
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Large-scale measurements of sea-ice have only been possible since the satellite era,
but through looking at a number of different satellite estimates, it has been
determined that September Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 2007 at
a rate of about -10% +/- 0.3% per decade. Sea ice extent for September for 2007 was
by far the lowest on record at 4.28 million square kilometres, eclipsing the previous
record low sea ice extent by 23%. Sea ice in the Antarctic has shown very little trend
over the same period, or even a slight increase from 1979 to 1995.
•
Global mean sea level has been rising historically at an average rate of 1.7 mm/year
(plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years, which is significantly larger than the
rate averaged over the last several thousand years. However, the rate of average
global sea level rise is currently accelerating, for the most part, at nearly 3mm/year
and the rate of acceleration is increasing. Scientists fully expect average sea levels to
have risen by 30cm or more by 2100 on a simple projection of ocean thermal
expansion figures alone for sea level rising.
Sea Level Rising
s
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Sea Level Rising – Current
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In Antarctica, however, average summer temperatures are now rising at six to eight
times faster than the global average – about 0.5 °C per decade since the late 1940s
- massively increasing the rate of summer ice loss. Current studies indicate an
acceleration of climate warming towards a predicted two degrees centigrade
increase in average global temperature by 2100 – predicating a corresponding
40metre rise in sea level by the end of the century – causing global flooding over
the world’s coastline and huge loss of large areas of existing land.
•
During 1995 Larsen Ice Shelf A disintegrated in just a few weeks. Then, in 2002, the
whole of the Larsen Ice Shelf B disappeared – an area the size of Rhode Island in
the USA. The mechanism responsible is thought to be driven by warmer Antarctic
summers, when liquid water pooling at the surface of the glacier filters down
cracks and crevices and subsequently re-freezes – shattering the ice sheet
•
Many glaciers are now flowing at up to eight times faster than only a decade ago –
due to liquid water pooling at the ice surface in the summer, filtering down cracks
and crevices and lubricating ice flow at the glacier base. Additionally, the melting
of the arctic tundra permafrost in Siberia is contributing vast amounts of additional
fresh water into the Arctic Sea – diluting sea water and threatening to halt the Gulf
Stream conveying heat from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic coast of NW Europe.
Sea Level Rising – Future
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The greatest danger, many experts are predicting, is rapidly increasing acceleration
of global warming will cause sea levels to rise much more dramatically than present.
Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans level by around 7 inches (17 to 18
centimetres). This mean sea level rise is insignificant compared to what will happen
if, for example, Antarctica or the Greenland Ice Cap melted and disappeared.
•
However, this linear increase in global mean sea level due to thermal expansion is
based only on simplistic single-factor expansion – without any contribution from
retreating alpine glaciers – and does not include potential massive contributions
from land based melting ice caps in either Greenland or Antarctica. Adding ice mass
loss into the equation yields far higher estimations of sea levels – suggesting over 1
meter rise by 2100. Very much larger sea level increases may also be expected –
but our current understanding of glacial ice dynamics leads to uncertainties in being
able to assess the precise range or extent of large-scale melting of massive ice caps.
•
Depending on which greenhouse gas increase scenario is used (high or low) future
sea-level rise is projected to be anywhere from 0.18 (low constant greenhouse gas
increase) to 0.59 meters by 2100 for the high constant greenhouse gas increase
scenario. Acceleration of global warming may lead towards up to a ten-fold future
global sea level increase – predicating a probable 1.5 minimum increase with a
possible 3 meter maximum rise in average sea levels by 2100 for a greenhouse gas
increase scenario showing rapidly increasing acceleration.
Greenhouse Gases
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We have learned - from the continuing work on the analysis of ice-cores by the British Antarctic
Survey - that levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, are at their highest point
at any time during the last 700,000 years.
•
Current levels of atmospheric CO2 have risen to 430ppm (up 150ppm from 280ppm at the start
of the industrial revolution (at an average of 6ppm per decade over the last 250 years).
Furthermore, the global rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 is higher than at any time in the last
20,000 years and continues to rise exponentially (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University).
It is widely agreed that when CO2 levels exceed 500ppm then the tipping point of irreversible
climate change will be surpassed – therefore catastrophic environmental degradation will be
inevitable – disrupting agriculture and fisheries with the consequent loss of up to 90 per cent of
human population through scarcity of resources, war, famine and disease.
•
If there is no amelioration in the acceleration of CO2 emissions, then this figure will increase to
750ppm by the end of this century - which would represent higher CO2 levels than those
prevalent at any time during the last 30 million years.
•
Scientists are now looking at what needs to be done to mitigate and adapt to these challenging
conditions as the rate of change in greenhouse gases settles down at the new, higher predicted
rates. Their emphasis is on building better climate models linking the Milankovitch Cycles
(changes in earth orbit, axial tilt and axial wobble) together with average global temperature,
atmospheric CO2 and sea level changes.
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Runaway Greenhouse Gas Scenario
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Recent research has established a direct correlation between average sea levels,
global temperature and atmospheric CO2 content. For each increase / decrease in
atmospheric concentration of CO2 of 100ppm there is a corresponding one degree
centigrade increase / decrease in average global temperature and a resultant 20
metre rise / fall in sea level (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University).
•
It is widely agreed that when CO2 levels exceed 500ppm then the tipping point of irreversible
catastrophic climate change will be exceeded. In a runaway greenhouse gas scenario,
the IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 0.1 - 0.2 °C per
decade yielding a possible range 1.1 - 1.8 °C by 2100 with sea levels in the range 22
- 36 metres higher than today. A worst case scenario of a global temperature rise is
of 4.0°C - 6.4°C by 2400 – predicating a catastrophic corresponding ice mass loss
and indicating that future sea levels could level out in the range of 80 - 128 metres
higher than today, with a maximum of 140m for total ice mass loss.
•
Melting of the Alpine and Himalayan mountain glaciers would increase sea levels
by around 3m. Should the Greenland Ice Cap disappear, then global sea levels will
rise by 7 meters – flooding large parts of the world’s coastal cities, harbours, and all
low-lying coastline, estuaries, deltas and archipelagos. The loss of the Antarctic Ice
Cap would increase sea levels by a further 130 meters – loosing up to 90km from
the existing coastline, drowning most of the worlds capital cities and washing away
much of the world’s most productive and intensively cultivated agricultural land –
and in the process displacing over one-third of world’s population.
Climate Models
EA-envision
•
Due to the enormous complexity of the atmosphere, the most useful tools for gauging future
changes are 'climate models'. These are computer-based mathematical models which simulate,
in three dimensions, the climate's behaviour, its components and their interactions. Climate
models are constantly improving based on both our understanding and the increase in computer
power, though by definition, a computer model is a simplification and simulation of reality,
meaning that it is an approximation of the climate system. The first step in any modelled
projection of climate change is to first simulate the present climate and compare it to
observations. If the model is considered to do a good job at representing modern climate, then
certain parameters can be changed, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases, which helps
us understand how the climate would change in response. Projections of future climate change
therefore depend on how well the computer climate model simulates the climate and on our
understanding of how forcing functions will change in the future.
•
According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in
climate model performance, the IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of
1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100, depending on which emissions scenario is
used. However, this global average will integrate widely varying regional responses, such as the
likelihood that land areas will warm much faster than ocean temperatures, particularly those
land areas in northern high latitudes (and mostly in the cold season). In Antarctica, however,
average summer temperatures are rising – with increased ice loss. Globally, it is very likely that as a result of increased climatic energy - storms, floods, heat waves, drought and other climatic
extremes will increase.
EA-envision:
Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
Climate Models
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Climate Models
•
Paleoclimatic data sets are critical for enabling us to extend our knowledge of
climatic variability beyond what is measured by modern instruments.
•
Many natural phenomena are climate dependent (such as the growth rate of a tree
for example), and as such, provide natural 'archives' of climate information. Some
useful paleoclimate data can be found in sources as diverse as tree rings, ice cores,
corals, lake sediments (including fossil insects and pollen data), speleothems
(stalactites etc), and ocean sediments.
•
Some of these, including ice cores and tree rings, are able to provide us also with an
annual chronology due to the nature of how they are formed, and so high resolution
climate reconstruction is possible.
•
In these cases. however, there is no continuous, comprehensive or complete
'network' of paleoclimate data as there is with instrumental coverage - so global
climate reconstructions are often difficult to obtain. Nevertheless, combining
different types of paleoclimate records enables us to gain a near-global picture of
climate changes in the distant past.
Climate Models
Paleoclimatic data sets are
critical for enabling us to
extend our knowledge of
climatic variability beyond
what is measured by modern
instruments.
Many natural phenomena
are climate dependent (such
as the growth rate of a tree
for example), and as such,
provide natural 'archives' of
climate information.
Paleoclimate data may be
found in sources as diverse
as tree rings, ice cores,
corals, lake sediments
(including fossil insects and
pollen data), speleothems
(stalactites etc), and ocean
sediments.
Climate Models
•
For Northern Hemisphere temperature, recent decades appear to be the warmest since at
least about 1000AD, and the warming since the late 19th century is unprecedented over the
last 1000 years. Older data sets are insufficient to provide reliable hemispheric temperature
estimates. Ice core data suggest that the 20th century has been warm in many parts of the
globe, but also that the significance of the warming varies geographically, when viewed in
the context of climate variations of the last millennium.
•
Large and rapid climatic changes affecting the atmospheric and oceanic circulation and
temperature, and the hydrological cycle, occurred during the last ice age and during the
transition towards the present Holocene period (which began about 10,000 years ago).
Based on the incomplete evidence available, the projected change of 3 to 7°F (1.5 - 4°C)
over the next century would be unprecedented in comparison with the best available
records from the last several thousand years.
•
The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios determines the range of future possible
greenhouse gas concentrations (and other forcings) based on considerations such as
population growth, economic growth, energy efficiency and a host of other factors. This
leads a wide range of possible forcing scenarios, and consequently a wide range of possible
future climates.
Abiliti – contact details
• Abiliti is a consortium of SAP I/S Utilities, I/S Oil & Gas and Energy Strategy
Consulting, Strategic Foresight & Future Management consultants
•
Graham Harris
– Email:
– Telephone:
•
Nigel Tebbutt
SAP Agile Academy Director @ Abiliti
[email protected] (Office)
+44 (0) 1527 591020 (Office)
奈杰尔 泰巴德
– Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Abiliti
– Telephone:
+44 (0) 7832 182595 (Mobile)
–
+44 (0) 121 342 3998 (Office)
– Email:
[email protected] (Private)
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