Transcript 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan

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S C E N A R I O P L A N N I N G S T U DY
N TROD UCTION TO
SCENARIO PLANNING
SCENARIO
PLANNING
101:
G E N E R A L OV E RV I E W
E X P L O R AT I O N O F M U LT I P L E F U T U R E S
REALITY CHECK
ROLL C ALL
General Overview
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What is scenario planning?
• Scenario planning provides a forum,
process, set of tools, and measurable
outcomes for communities of all sizes to
contemplate future possibilities.
Regional Applications of Scenario
Planning include:
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Strategic Development Plans
Long Range Transportation Plans
Capital Improvements Prioritization
Growth Audits
General Overview
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Why do scenario planning?
• Explore the “what if’s” of a region’s future
• Consider the tradeoffs between different
growth scenarios or policy decisions
• Re-frame local growth questions
• Answer what, where, when, and how growth
should occur to meet a common vision
“We cannot solve our
problems with the same
thinking we used to
create them.”
-- Albert Einstein
Exploration of Multiple Futures
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Traditional Approach…
Stakeholders carry forward current trends to a pre-defined future
planning horizon (i.e., business-as-usual).
“Base Year”
“Future Year”
Exploration of Multiple Futures
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Scenario Planning Approach…
Stakeholders consider several plausible futures for a region
assuming a pre-defined planning horizon.
“Base Year”
“Future Year Alternatives”
Exploration of Multiple Futures
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Scenario Planning Approach…
Stakeholders evaluate
competing development
alternatives and establish a
common vision for regional
policies and decisionmaking related to new
growth and anticipated
changes in the region.
A
C
B
D
Reality Check
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Evaluate the Alternatives…
The different futures
(alternatives) can be
compared with one
another or evaluated on
their own merits with
regard to many different
quantitative and
qualitative measures
ranging from cost (or
allocation of resources)
in dollars to effects on
transportation, open
space, schools, and
community facilities
Scenario Planning Roll Call
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Regions, cities, counties, and
towns throughout the nation
and nearby are doing scenario
planning:
• Atlanta Regional Commission
• Nashville, TN
• Memphis, TN
• Charleston, SC (BCD COG)
• Durham, NC
• And many others…
SCENARIO
P L A N N I N G TO O L K I T :
P L A N N I N G P RO C E S S
AVA I L A B L E TO O L S
K E Y S TA K E H O L D E R S
Ty p i c a l S c e n a r i o P l a n n i n g P r o c e s s
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Public Outreach
Trend Analysis
Resource Maps
Concept Maps
Model Calibration
Land
Suitability Analysis
Synthesize
Growth Scenarios
Scenario Analysis
Growth Allocation
Reality Check
S c e n a r i o P l a n n i n g To o l b o x
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Growth Forecasts
Regional TDM
Development Chip Game
Focus Area Studies
Scenario Planning Software
Project Website
Key S t a ke h o l d e r s
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Who can be Involved in a Regional
Scenario Planning Study?
• Regional Planning Agencies
• County Governments
• Local Cities & Towns
- Elected and Appointed Officials
- Local Staff
• Business and Real Estate Professionals
• Public Institutions
• General Public
THE END GAME:
BIG QUESTIONS
S H A R I N G T H E R E S U LT S
L I N K A G E TO O T H E R P L A N N I N G I N I T I AT I V E S
THE
Answers to the Big Questions
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Scenario planning helps to answer
the big questions:
• How big do we want to be?
• Where do we want to grow?
• Are we growing sustainably?
• Can we pay for our growth?
• Are we still be proud of where we live?
Results are Shared in Many Forms
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The outcomes of the plan are
shared in graphical and dataintensive forms to clearly
communicate ideas and findings to
a broad cross section of people
and to increase the utility of the
findings for local and regional staff
in decision-making.
Linkage to Other Planning Initiatives
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• Regional Plans
- Long Range Transportation Plan
- State of the Region Report
• Local Government Plans
- Comprehensive Plan
- Zoning & Subdivision Ordinances
- Capital Improvements Plan
REGIONAL LAND
G
ENERAL
I
USE
S C E N A R I O P L A N N I N G S T U DY
N TROD UCTION TO
SCENARIO PLANNING