Transcript Desert Outlook and Options for Action

Desert Outlook and Options
for Action
Christian Nellemann and Stefanie
Herrmann
September 7, 2005
The overall story line:
Deserts: Our common cradle of life
Deserts and our planet
-The uniqueness of deserts (proud of deserts)
-The uniqueness of desert people (proud of the people)
-Why deserts matter to the World (dust and oil)
-State of the Worlds deserts (here’s the situation)
-Challenges and opportunities (works and not works)
-Outlook (future risks)(why we have to act)
-Policy gaps (here’s what we want to do)
Chapter Outline
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Outlook for desert human and natural
environment
Future sustainability and human wellbeing in deserts
Closing remarks: options for action
Purpose of outlook
 Bring scientific knowledge into a format suitable
for communication and policymaking
 Demonstrate that different policy choices give
different results (maps and graphics)
 Provide an overview
 Early warning
 Provides a key to media and policy makers on
risks and reversibility
Structure of the chapter:
-Introduction
(linking to previous chapters and explain what scenarios are)
-Narrative scenarios and explanation of the differences
in the scenarios and shortly on principles of models
-Quantitative scenarios and graphics
-Compare trends and variation with different approaches
and literature review
-Summarize in a MA-table
-Policy gaps and actions
1. Outlook for desert development
OUTLOOK – scenarios
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Water
Biodiversity
Land degradation
Dust storms
1. Outlook for desert
environment
Development scenarios: Water
 Exploitation of non-renewable water resources
 Gaps in water resources
 Quantity and quality (IUCN-UNEP, WWAP,
GIWA)
 Existing models of water consumption and land
use (polestar and others)
 Thorough literature review
 Glaciers and climate change
2000
NEW: Can actually estimate rate of
biodiversity loss towards 2010 and beyond
given different measures
0,40
SRES A1
-1
Rate of loss in mean RSR (% yr )
Mean original species richness
1,0
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Year
0,35
0,30
SRES A2
0,25
0,20
SRES B1
0,15
0,10
SRES B2
0,05
0,00
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Year
Scenarios: Land degradation
 Vulnerability of drylands to climatic and
anthropogenic stresses
 Grazing
 Pollution
 Models and FAO-statistics
 Invasive species (box)
 Diseases (box)
 Narrative scenarios
 Model scenarios
White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services:
a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 5
White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services:
a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 9
Impacts of future changes on the human
environment within and outside deserts
Graphics/scenarios
Narrative story
Impacts on human and natural
environment - overview
Traffic light table MA-style with all pressures
and regions for 2010 and 2050
 Summary of recommendations
MA directional table
Taklamakan Lop Nur Gobi ….
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Water availability
Biodiversity
Grazing pressure
Invasive species
Pollution
Salinization
Water consumption
Dust storms
3. Closing remarks: options for
action