Transcript PRESENTATION NAME

GAINS-Italy
Giovanni Vialetto, Tiziano Pignatelli
Technical Unit on Environment Technologies
WORKSHOP MINNI
Roma, 17-18 aprile 2013
Project’s Results

New model (From RAINS-Italy to GAINS-Italy)

Scenario updates (both national and regional)

Impact Maps updated (more meteorological years,
new concentration indicators)

Gains-Italy on-line (remotely accessible by external
users)
2
The MINNI Modelling System
Emission Projections
AMS-Italy
GAINS-Italy
Atmospheric Transfer Matrixes
AMS: Atmospheric
Modelling System
GAINS: Greenhouse Gas and Air
Pollution Interactions and
Synergies
3
Towards GAINS-Italy
Since many years, at international level, Air Pollution
and Climate Change are addressed simultaneously, in
order to assess synergies and side-effects; climate
measures are normally considered into CLE scenarios.
IIASA updated the RAINS model in order to take into
account the Greenhouse Gases considered by the Kyoto
Protocol, expanding RAINS into GAINS (Greenhouse
Gases and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies).
RAINS-Italy model updated according the GAINS
evolution in order to maintain compatibility and
comparability in national and international analyses
4
Extension of RAINS to GHGs
PM SO2 NOx VOC NH3
Health impacts:
PM
 
O3
Vegetation impacts:
O3
Acidification

Eutrophication









- via OH


N2O






 
CH4

Radiative Forcing:
- direct
- via aerosol
CO2
PFCs
HFCs
SF6





5
Gains-Italy model
Harmonization with national
/local emission inventories
Emission
Scenarios
Activity input data
scenario
SO2, NOx, NH3, COV, PM + 6 GHGs
Emission
inventory
Costs
Non Technical
Measures
INPUT SCENARIO DEFINITION
(CLE, MTFR...)
OPTIMIZATION OUTSIDE GAINS MODEL
GAINS-Italy
Dep&Conc
maps
Dep S, N (ox, red),
Conc PM2.5, PM10, NO2
Control Strategy definition
Health&Env
maps
LER per PM2.5, Premature Deaths O3
Ecosystems (acidification, eutrophication)
Technical Measures
6
News of GAINS-Italy model
Main new characteristics in GAINS-Italy:

Input energy data structure more detailed

Emission factors for greenhouse gases (e.g. from IPCC
and/or national emission inventory). Black Carbon
Emission Factors introduced.

Reduction GHGs measures approached diversely from
the end-of-pipe abatement technologies in RAINS
7
Power Plants – New structure
Power Plants
BC1
BC2
HC1-3
BC1
BC2
HC1-3
Other
fuels
Existing
Existing
New
IGCC
IGCC
Small Plants
( < 50 MWe)
NEW_L
Large Plants
(BC, HC fuel)
Integrated
Gasification
Combined
Cycle
Large Plants
( >50 MWe)
Other
boiler types
NEW (other
fuels)
NEW_CCS
(other fuels)
MOD (BC,
HC fuel)
MOD CCS
(BC, HC fuel)
Integrated
Gasification
Combined
Cycle (CCS)
ENG
Plants with
internal
combustion
engines
(HF,
MD,GAS)
Total
(energy
balance)
Renewable
Hydro
Nuclear
ELE
Heat
MOD = Modern power plants
(supercritical, ultrasupercritical)
8
National and regional scenarios
Some national and regional scenarios have been developed, in
order to take into account the changes in the economic trends
and the energy scenarios submitted to EU, by MATTM and
MISE, in the framework of the climate policy analysis:
CP e NO-CP scenarios, that take (or do not take) into
account the measures introduced in the context of the
“climate & energy package 2008”
Baseline scenario 2012, that takes into account measures
established with Decision CIPE April 2012.
SEN scenario 2013, that takes into account the National
Energy Strategy, recently developed by MISE
9
SEN & Gothenburg target
Comparison changing in emissions at 2020 vs 2005
Gothenburg Target 2020 (%)
Changing 2020/2005 (%)
NH3
VOC
PM2.5
NOx
SO2
-55% -50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5%
0%
5%
10% 15% 20%
10
SEN & Climate target
CO2 Emissions- SEN 2013 scenario - ITALY
CO2 Emissions (Mt)
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005
Power
Plants
Refineries 2020
2010
2015
Domestic
On-road transport
Maritime transport Waste
Industry
2025
Off-road transport
Non-Energy
2030
11
Impact Maps
Different meteorological years considered (1999, 2003,
2005, 2007 + average year).
The concentration maps of total particulate consider not
only primary and inorganic secondary PM, but also some
natural sources and organic secondary PM.
Concentration
introduced
Indicator
of
nitrogen
dioxide
(NO2)
12
Maps of PM2.5 concentrations
1999
2003
2005
2007
PM2.5 concentrations at 2010 with different
ATM years, No Climate Policy Scenario
13
GAINS-Italy on line
In the framework of the agreement between ENEA and MATTM,
GAINS-Italy model is now accessible on line, by external users
(e.g. regional experts) to allow the development of autonomously
generated emission scenarios and to facilitate the dissemination of
results about the analysis carried out by ENEA.
GAINS-Italy is accessible by the link:
http://gains-it.bologna.enea.it/gains/IT/index.login?login
or from the MINNI project site http://www.minni.org/ following
the link to GAINS-Italy online
14
GAINS-Italy on line
15
GAINS-Italy on line
External users to GAINS-Italy Online are divided in two
categories:
GAINS_Viewers have access to all the public scenarios with
the privileges: read and download scenarios data. (50 external
viewers registered)
GAINS_Users
have the privileges of the GAINS_Viewers
and, in addition, may also create/edit new owner scenarios with
their own input data and specific parameters read, download and
edit/create scenarios (owner scenarios only).
16
Conclusions
 GAINS_Italy has dramatically improved its features and
characteristics with respect the previous version (RAINS_Italy) of the
model.
 ENEA experts, in cooperation with IIASA, aim at maintaining the
edge of the scientific knowledge behind the model, following the
evolution of the GAINS_Europe Model, with the ultimate objective of
providing the best scientific underpinning to the Air Pollution and
Climate Change policy development, within the national and
international (EU & LRTAP) contexts.
 GAINS_Italy Online offer a powerful and flexible (free) tool to the
Regional Experts and Administration Policy Makers for development
and assessment of Air Pollution policies, at local level, within a
coordinated and coherent framework.
17