Transcript Climate Change in New York

Climate Change in New York
Findings of the UCS
Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment
and
The Cornell Climate Impacts Initiative
Art DeGaetano
Professor, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric
Science, Cornell University
Director Northeast Regional Climate Center
The Climate of New York is
Already Changing
• Annual temperatures across New York have
warmed almost 2º F since 1970
• Winter temperatures have warmed by nearly
5° F since 1970
• The date of the last spring frost has become
1 week earlier since 1950
• There are about 2 more days >90°F since
1970
Northeast Winter Temp
Significant Change in Winter Climate!
Boston
42.5
o
4.8 F
42
Latitude o(N)
41.5
41
New York
o
40.5
4.8
Philadelphia
40
39.5
Washington, DC
39
38.5
30
31
32
33
34
35
o
Winter (DJF) Mean Temperature ( F)
36
The Precipitation Climatology is
also Changing
• Average rainfall has increased by more than 3
inches since 1950
• There is about one more 2 inch rainfall per year
since 1950
• Snow fall has declined by as much a 20 inches in
some parts of the state since 1970
• In Lake Effect areas, there has been a long term
increase in snowfall
New York Extreme Precipitation
Events (>2 inches in 48 hrs)
These Changes Affect Design
Criteria for Flooding
Central Park
2-yr
50-yr
100-yr
1940 - 1960
3.10
6.21
7.22
1970-2006
3.86
7.31
8.39
2.43
4.46
5.08
2.49
5.73
6.86
Ithaca
2-yr
50-yr
100-yr
Lake Effect Snow
Adirondacks Snow Cover
What About Beyond 2007?
Anthropogenic
Forcing
Clicker Question
•
What are the major sources of anthropogenic
methane
a)
b)
c)
d)
Landfills
Fossil fuel combustion
Agriculture
Plastic manufacturing
Emission Scenarios
HIGHER
A1FI
LOWER
B1
Source: IPCC 2001
Projecting Climate
From Global to Local Scale
12
o
temperature change ( F)
Projections and Observations
10
8
6
Higher: 6.5-12.5oF
observations
higher emissions
lower emissions
Lower: 3.5-6.5oF
4
2
0
-2
-4
1900
2oF warming since
1970
1950
2000
2050
2100
Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Timing of Seasons
By 2070-2099:
• Spring will be arriving earlier by 1-2
weeks (lower) or almost 3 weeks (higher)
• The growing season is projected to be
Lilacs: 4 days earlier
extended by 4 weeks (lower) and up to 6 Apples: 9 days earlier
Grapes: 6 days earlier
weeks (higher)
• Summer is expected to arrive earlier by 11.5 weeks (lower) or 3 weeks (higher) and
stay longer by 2 weeks (lower) or 3 weeks
(higher)
Increasing annual precipitation
Extreme Precipitation
• Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across
the Northeast
• Under both emissions scenarios
– rainfall is expected to become more intense.
– periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent.
Anticipating Impacts
• Geographic scope: Nine Northeast states,
• Sectoral scope: coastal, marine, forests,
agriculture, winter recreation, health,
solutions.
• Analytic approach: Assess potential
impacts of climate change through 2100
under lower and higher scenarios of
greenhouse gas emissions
Sea-Level Rise
projected global mean sea level rise (cm))
100
uncertainty in SLR from thermal expansion
80
uncertainty in SLR from ice melt
Higher emissions
60
Lower emissions
40
Associated Press
Higher: 8-33 inches
Lower: 4-21 inches
20
0
-20
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
These estimates do not
include the potential for
additional increases due
to more rapid melting of
major polar ice sheets.
Clicker Question
What causes more than 50% of this sea level rise?
a) Melting of mountain glaciers
b) Melting of Greenland
c) Melting of Antarctica
d) Thermal expansion of water
NYC : Today’s 100-Year Flood Could Occur
Every 10 Years under the Higher-Emissions
Scenario
Credit: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.. NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/).
•More Coastal
Erosion
•Wetland
Inundation
and Loss
Lake Ontario Levels
Impacts
on Human
Health
•Extreme Heat
•Air Quality
•Pollen
Allergens
Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes:
New York City
Photo credit: Associated Press
Increasing Risk of Poor Air
Quality
Source: NECIA, 2007
(see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Changes in
Suitable Climate
Conditions
For Different
Forest Types
by Late-Century
spruce/fir: Anastasiya Maksymenko; maple: Birthe Lunau; oak: Dave White;
ash: Chad Davis; loblolly: Kentucky Division of Forestry.
Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/).
Jerry and Marcy Monkman
Impacts on
Agriculture
•Dairy
•Crops
•Pests and
Weeds
Percent Years Meeting 1000-hr
Winter-Chill Requirement
(dark orange- most years meet
requirement)
Days Below -4 F
(dark orange- potential spread of
Kudzu range)
July Dairy Thermal Heat Index
(THI > 72 (yellow-orange to red)
reduces milk production)
The Changing Face of Winter
Intraresearch, d.b.a. MapMart
Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Key Climate and Impacts
Findings
• Changes consistent with global warming
are already evident across New York
• Over next few decades, changes similar
under both emissions scenarios
• By mid-century, most changes are
greater under the higher scenario
• By late-century, under the higher scenario
many changes almost twice those seen
with lower emissions
Meeting the
Climate
Challenge
•Reducing
Emissions
•Adapting to
unavoidable
climate
change
Keys to Adaptation
Reducing
New York
Emissions
• Electric power
• Renewable energy
• Buildings
Yahoo!/REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine
• Transportation
• Industry
• Forest/agricultural
land management
• Methane recovery
Harbec Plastics
Available for download at: http://www.climatechoices.org
Questions?