Transcript presentation

RE and the
Climate Change Challenge:
Can RE Technologies
Deliver?
Steven Guilbeault, Greenpeace International
Defining the Challenge

UNFCCC Article 2

Millions at Risk
UNFCCC Article 2: Objective
The ultimate objective of this Convention is to

prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system…in
time to…
allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to
 ensure that food production is not
threatened and to
 enable economic development to proceed
in a sustainable manner.

Additional millions at risk
in 2050s
Temperature Malaria Hunger Water Coastal
increase
shortage flooding
above 1860
1oC 2050s
157
8
1252
8
2oC 2050s
228
12
2240
20
3oC 2050s
245
13
2847
32
Additional millions at risk
in 2080s
Temperature Malaria Hunger Water Coastal
increase
shortage flooding
above 1860
1oC 2080s
115
6
156
3
2oC 2080s
225
23
2475
18
3oC 2080s
292
57
3164
61
4oC 2080s
334
128
3500
108
That’s Quite A Challenge
Can RE technologies deliver ALL of that?
NO!
What RE can’t do
Cope with IEA projected increases in electricity
consumption;
 Reverse global deforestation trends;
 Energy efficiency MUST play a major role;
 Unsustainable patterns of consumption and
production must be transformed;
 Transport

What RE technologies CAN Do

By the end of the century, renewables have the
potential to provide nearly 100% of our energy
needs…indeed they must if we are to meet the
climate change challenge.

Existing RE technologies can provide a
significant share of global electricity demand by
2020, and a very large share by 2040.
Working with the Industry

Greenpeace working with industry?
European Wind Energy Association
European PV Industry Association
Solar Thermal Power Industry Association
And others
Wind Force 12

Wind Force 10 to Wind Force 12

27 fold increase in a decade
WHAT CAN WIND DELIVER?
2020 : 11 % of world electricity
2040 : 22 % of world electricity
WIND FUTURES
Global Wind Power will be equivalent to
reducing ...
Global Wind Power will be
equivalent to reducing ...
SOLAR GENERATION

Enormous technical potential, but expensive so
far, although costs are coming down;

Growth is fast, but starting from a very small
base.
WHAT CAN SOLAR pv DELIVER?
2020 : 1 % of global demand
2040 : 26 % of global demand
SOLAR THERMAL
New report
 Feasibility study like WF12 and SG
 Working with BOTH European and US industry
associations
 Results

Solar Thermal Can Deliver:
Three Technologies
Wind
Solar pv
Solar
Thermal
Total
Today
2020
64.5
(twh)
Ca. 2,5
TWh
3021
(twh)
276
(twh)
Ca. 0,7
TWh
43 (twh)
3340
(twh)
2040
12%
1%
8100
22%
(twh)
9113
26%
(twh)
.16%
3174
5%
(twh)
13%
20,387 53%
(twh)
Next (for us)

Geothermal: technical potential w/existing technology
= 1 X current global energy demand

‘Modern Biomass’: technical potential w/existing
technology = 40% of current global energy demand;

Marine Energy: technical potential w/existing
technology = 5% of current global energy demand
Meeting the Challenge?

Role for government, industry and civil society

Growth rates achievable similar to other energy
technologies (Fax machines, PC, mobile phones,
etc).
An Important Step on The Road to
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
and A Clean Energy Future
Steven Guilbeault
Greenpeace International
G
www.greenpeace.org