Transcript SEE-REM Investment Needs

Regional Electricity Supply and Demand:
Implications for Investments
in Electric Power Infrastructure
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Agenda
SEE-REM and regional investments
Evolution of regional demand and supply
Investment needs and priorities
Conclusions
1
SEE-REM and Regional Investments
• SEE-REM should help “to underpin
investments in the region with a firm
regulatory perspective into the medium and
long-term”
• Solutions to national energy issues based on
isolated national markets are neither capable
nor desirable as a means to satisfy regional
supply and demand imbalances
2
Regional Demand and Supply
The basic information
22.6
4.6
$ 4625
$ 1700
4.2
10.0
$ 1195
$ 984
8.2
0.7
$ 984
Population (million)
total 55.7
$ 1605
2.0
$ 1750
3.4
$ 1282
10.6
$ 11,002
GDP
capita
GDP
perper
capita
(US$)($)
average
values
Average values for for
SEE
countries
$ 1765
SEE
countries
$ 1765
3
Regional consumption 1991-2001 (GWh)
MW
(GWh)
180000
35000
160000
30000
140000
120000
25000
100000
20000
80000
15000
60000
10000
40000
5000
20000
0
1991
1992
Albania
1993
1994
B&H Bulgaria
1995
1996
Macedonia
1997
Montenegro
1998
Serbia
1999
2000
2001
0
Romania Croatia
4
Regional consumption by categories
1991
2001
13%
14%
32%
39%
47%
55%
Households
Industry
Other
Gross consumption 147 TWh
kWh/capita
2172 kWh/cap.
Households
Industry
Other
163 TWh
2192 kWh/cap.
5
Regional electricity generation 1991-2001
Regional Electricitygeneration (GWh)
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1991
1992
Albania
1993
B&H
1994
Bulgaria
1995
Croatia
1996
1997
Macedonia
1998
Montenegro
*Electricity production in B&H is not included in the period 1991-1993
1999
Romania
2000
2001
Serbia
6
Structure of electricity production
2001
1991
1991
9.3%
15.1%
26.0%
2.0%
27.8%
20.2%
55.0%
44.5%
Hydro
Hard coal/lignite
Hydro
Hard coal/lignite
Oil/natural gas
Nuclear
Oil/natural gas
Nuclear
Total production 167 TWh
165 TWh
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Electricity balance in 2001-2002
• The total exchanges within the SEE region
reached 14.2 TWh in 2001
• Additional exchanges were 8.2 TWh (mainly with
Greece and Turkey)
• Net exporters (Bulgaria, Romania and B&H)
provided 9.6 TWh to net importers
• The large deficits were in Albania (32%), Croatia
(22%) and Montenegro (42%)
• In 2002, deficit was reduced in Serbia (6%) but
increased in Macedonia (10%)
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Demand and supply outlook 2003-2012
• An average growth rate of about 2.3% is
expected by regional utilities
• The region aims to add a net new capacity
of about 4500 MW through 2012
• Rehabilitation of about 4000 MW of
existing capacity would be required
• Without investments in generation the
region may loose up to 6500 MW
9
Generation expansion scenarios
2001
49.5 GW
30000
20000
10000
0
HPP
TPP
36.3% 54.5%
2012 High investment scenario
NPP
9.2%
2012 Non investment scenario
54 GW
43 GW
30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000
0
0
HPP
37.9%
TPP
52.4%
NPP
9.7%
HPP
TPP
NPP
42.3% 51.3% 6.4%
10
Investment Needs and Priorities
• Lack of independent analysis of electricity
demand and load forecast
• Poor understanding of available generating
capacity and regional supply options
• Outdated feasibility studies and/or
inadequately studied candidate projects
• Regional priorities in generation not defined
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Investment Needs and Priorities
(continued)
• Lack of coordinated development of
generation and transmission plans
Near-term priorities:
• Better transmission interconnections and
links to UCTE
• Network control and telecommunications
require urgent upgrade to meet SEE-REM
needs and facilitate electricity trade
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Becescaba
Rosiori
Oradea
Heviz
Sandorfalva
Cirkovce
Pecs
Krsko
Divaca
Zerjavinec
Subotica
Sombor
Arad
Tumbri
Ernestinovo
Meline
S.Mitrovica
Isaccea
B. Luka
Portile de
Fier
Ugljevik
Tintareni
Djerdap
Konjsko
Mostar
Kozloduj
Nis
Varna
Ribarevine
Trebinje
Sofia West
Podgorica
Kosovo B
C. Mogila
Transmission
Interconnections
Maritza 3
Skopje 5
Stip
Blagoevgrad
Hamidabat
Dubrovo
Tirana
Existing
Phillipi
Bitola
Babaeski
Elbasan
New In 2005
Thessaloniki
Florina
Options
Kardia
DC Link to Italy
Arachthos
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Investment needs in distribution
• A huge backlog of differed maintenance and
delayed investments
• Seen as a “local issue” while it creates
systemic technical and financial problems
• Relatively few studies and poorly prepared
investment projects
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Conclusions
• Near-term needs are relatively clear but
regional priorities are not defined
• Investment needs beyond 2005 are not
adequately covered in current studies
• The emerging SEE-REM will be a key
driver of future investments
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