Transcript Adaptation Scotland - South Ayrshire Council

Lorraine FitzGerald
Private Sector Officer
Adaptation Scotland
The Changing Climate of Ayrshire
Your Sustainable Future
21st March 2012
contact: [email protected]
Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in
response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful
consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities.
Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009)
The climate is changing and we need to be ready...
... adaptation means we prepare for the future – to deal with
threats and take advantage of opportunities.
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
What do we mean by climate?
Weather is what we experience and, as anyone living in Scotland
will know, this can vary by the minute, as well as day-to-day and
year-to-year.
Climate is the average of weather conditions over a long period
of time*... while climate change is a long-term trend in climate
* World Meteorological Organisation uses a 30-year standard
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
How does this winter’s weather compare?
...with the average between 1971 and 2000
Temperature
Rainfall
warm
&
wet
Note: Winter = December-February
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Year-to-Year the Weather Varies
...recent winters are a good example
2010
2011
2012
avg.
v. cold
cold
warm
dry
dry
dry
wet
Rainfall
Temperature
2009
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Longer term changes in climate... summer
temperature
rainfall
dry
wet
change from
1961  2006
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Longer term changes in climate... winter
temperature
rainfall
dry
wet
change from
1961  2006
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
The global climate trend
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
What do we know about future climate?
Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our
understanding of climate – and how humans are changing it...
... and we continue to improve on this.
Scotland has access to world leading information – the
UK Climate Projections - about how our climate is likely
to change over this century.
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
The key climate change trends for Scotland are:
• Hotter, drier summers
• Milder, wetter autumn and winters
We can also expect to see:
•
•
•
•
Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought
Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events
Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall
Sea level rise
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Clyde: change in temperature
...over the 21st century
67%
50%
33%
10%
High Emissions (A1FI)
River Basin: Clyde
Mean Temperature - Annual
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
Southeast England was 2.3°C warmer than the Clyde
(in the baseline period 1961-1990)
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
very likely range
Change in Average Annual Temperature (°C)
90%
What difference do a
few degrees make?
Southeast England was 2.3°C
warmer than Clyde
(in baseline 1961-1990)
2050s
+2.4°C
(+1.5 to 3.6°C)
So summer temperatures likely to be
similar to those in south of England by the
2050s...
2080s
+3.8°C
(+2.5 to 5.5°C)
... and potentially more like those currently
experienced in Southern Europe (>4°C)
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
*The projected values are for annual mean
temperature under high emissions scenario
Although with Rainfall changing
as well, we don’t know exactly
what the climate of the Ayrshire
will be like...
?
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Clyde: Rainfall in the 2050s
wetter
67%
50%
33%
wetter
10%
High Emissions (A1FI)
River Basin: Clyde
Mean Precipitation - Monthly
drier
Baseline (1961-1990)
Jan
Feb
winter
Mar
Apr
May
spring
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Jun
Jul
Aug
summer
Sep
Oct
Nov
autumn
Dec
very likely range
Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/day)
90%
The key climate change trends for Scotland are:
• Hotter, drier summers
• Milder, wetter autumn and winters
We can also expect to see:
•
•
•
•
Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought
Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events
Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall
Sea level rise
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Are we loading the ‘climate dice’ for extreme
weather events?
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
But how might climate change impact on us?
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Buildings need to be fit for
purpose in a future climate
Building will need to cope with more
extreme summer temperatures,
intense rainfall events and potential
changes in wind and storm patterns.
Impact on health and wellbeing
Reduction in deaths and hospital
admissions during cold months –
although might exacerbate
respiratory diseases
Increased use of outdoors in summer
– although might be heat-related
health concerns
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Damage infrastructure and
disrupt transport networks
The potential for disruption due to
increased flooding, erosion and
landslides, storms and wind, and
rising sea levels
Impact on insurance costs and the
financial sector
The Natural Environment
Some species might find it hard
to cope with climate change –
loss (or change) of biodiversity
and species migration.
Potential for spread of pests and
disease not currently
widespread.
Agriculture and Forestry
Crop types might change and longer
growing seasons could lead to
increased yields – although summer
drought is a risk.
Potential for spread of pests and
disease not currently widespread.
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
How might a landscape change?
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill)
Photo-edited by Land Use Consultants
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill)
Photo-edited by Land Use Consultants
- please contact us -
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
[email protected]
Adaptation Scotland Partnership: