Transcript United Kingdom, David Wilson

EC Projections Workshop
Energy Paper 68 – baseline energy
and CO2 projections, 2000 – 2020,
published by DTI, November 2000.
No plans to revise projections yet.
UK Climate Change Programme –
projections of all GHGs, including
policies and measures, published
by DEFRA, November 2000. No
plans to revise yet.
DTI is the department of trade and industry
DEFRA is the department of environment, food
and rural affairs)
Projections and Policy:
Departmental Responsibilities
Area
Key Departments
Energy policy
DTI
Energy projections
DTI
CO2 Emission projections
DTI/DEFRA
Other GHG projections
DEFRA
Climate Change Policy
DEFRA
Model Design
 Two main components of the model:
sectoral econometric models of final
energy demand
a LP model of electricity supply
Model Design
 Electricity supply model: key features
 a linear programme covers existing major power
producer power stations plus renewable plants
 based on pre-determined fuel costs, plant costs etc
determines the overall least cost means of supply
models main coal plants individually
determines the merit order - the cheapest plants
forecasts what new plant type is most economic
model constrained to meet SOx/NOx emissions limits
Other Models and Procedures
 A simulation CHP model
 A refinery model
 An Excel based workbook to calculate
emissions on a UK source, end user and fuel
basis and on a detailed and summary IPCC basis
(with 3000 lines of visual basic programming)
DTI UK Energy Model Overview
OEF
HMT
OG
ENP
other assumptions GDP, activity assumptions
world fuel prices
UK fuel prices
ENP
other wisdom
final energy demand model
electricity demand
electricity supply optimisation model
electricity prices
other emissions
cost of electricity generation
energy related emissions
emissions inventory model
fuel demand by sector
matrix of emission coefficients
total emissions, IPCC basis
Final Energy Demand Sector Drivers
DOMESTIC
TRANSPORT
SERVICE
INDUSTRY
Real personal
disposable
income (RPDI)
Domestic
Energy Prices
GDP
OECD GDP
GDP
GDP
Petrol prices
DERV prices
Aviation fuel
prices
Population &
Number of UK
households
Service Sector Industrial Sector
Energy Prices Prices
Fossil Fuel prices
Electricity prices
Service Sector Industrial Sector
Output
Output
Assumptions
External
temperatures
Number of UK
households
External
temperatures
(HDD)
Major
Vehicle
Appliance take- registrations
up
Car ownership
levels
Track length,
Goods lifted
Major
appliances, Air
conditioning,
Computer etc
equipment
Key Energy Modelling Assumptions
Used in EP68
1. Incomes and economic growth
2. Energy Prices
3. Household numbers
Key Energy Modelling Assumptions
Used in EP68
-3 economic growth cases
(low, central and high)
-2 energy price cases
(low and high)
Many tests of sensitivity
(including nuclear lifetimes, energy prices,
temperature…)
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
%growth
UK GDP Growth Assumptions
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
central
low
high
Beach (landed) Gas Price - EP68
ARA
Coal
Price
-- EP68
Brent
Oil
Price
EP68Prices
Assumptions and Actual
Assumptions
Assumptionsand
andActual
ActualPrices
Prices
60.00
30.00
25.00
50.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
30.00
15.00
10.00
20.00
10.00
5.00
gas actual
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
1999
2000
2000
2001
2001
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1999
1999
0.00
0.00
0.00
1995
1996
1996
10.00
5.00
1995
1995
$/tonne
$/barrel
pence/therm
40.00
20.00
coal
EP68gas
low
EP68high
highspot gas prices
gas
EP68 lowcoal
oilactual
actual
oil EP68
low EP68coal
oilhigh
EP68
Key Assumptions on Population:
Projection of total households in England,
1996 - 2021
POLICIES AND MEASURES
Policies in the baseline (EP68) for 2010:
Policy
10% renewables in generation
CO2 Saving (MtC)
2.5
Climate change levy
Road fuel duty
2.0
1 – 2.5
POLICIES AND MEASURES
Policies in the Climate Change Programme for 2010:
Policy
CO2 Saving (MtC)
Climate change agreements/IPCC
2.5
EU agreement on CO2 from cars…
4.0
Domestic energy efficiency
4.0-5.5
Emissions trading scheme (1st stage)
2.0 +
Other
Around 5.0
UK greenhouse gas emissions 1990-2020
(without/ with Climate Change Programme)
220
220
200
200
EP68 GGEs
GGEs after CCP
EP68 GGEs
Kyoto target
GGEs after CCP
CO2
Kyoto target
CO2 after CCP
CO2 goal
MtC
MtC
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
1990
1990
2000
2000
2010
2010
2020
2020
Change in Baseline Emission Projections
(2000 View against 1995 View)
Total
power stations
industry
other
road transport
services
residential
refineries
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Main Reasons for Change in Baseline Emission
Projections
Area
Reasons
Power stations
10% renewables generation
lower electricity demand
industry
Climate change levy
more CHP
Road transport
Effects of road fuel duties
other
Lower offshore emissions
Openness
Energy Modelling - EP68
1)..Energy industries are consulted
2)..A working paper was issued for comment
3)..Modellers available for informal discussion
4)..Energy Model Review - openness is a key issue
Climate Change Programme
1)..Consultation Paper published for comment
2)..Dialogue with companies, other bodies
Government Energy Review
1)..Encourages more openness
2)..Recommends a new sustainable energy unit, with more
analytical capability, across Govt
Model Parameters
Energy Modelling - EP68
1)..Model elasticities last published in EP65 in March 1995
2)..Occasional papers submitted to conferences
3)..Elasticities reported in annual Energy Reports
4)..Modellers available for informal discussion of model parameters
5)..Energy Model Review will assess how best to provide information