Transcript GHG projections of Romania

GHG projections of Romania-How
much is available?
April 30
Bucharest, Romania
Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir
Climate Change Department
The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern
Europe
GHG Emission Trends and Projections in
Europe in 2008
•In cooperation with
ETC-EEA
•Covering all the
European countries
•Web page:
http://www.eea.europa.eu/
publications/eea_report_20
08_5
www.rec.org
OUTLINE
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Base year GHG emissions and Kyoto target
GHG Emission trends by sector
GHG Projections
Available AAUs for carbon market for the first
commitment period.
• Conclusions
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Base year GHG Emissions and
Kyoto target
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Kyoto base year is 1989 for all gases
Initial Report………281.895 Mt CO2 eq
Expert review……..278.225 Mt CO2 eq
Kyoto Target: -8% by 2012
278.225 x 92% = 255.967 Mt CO2 eq
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GHG EMISSION TRENDS
BY SECTOR
Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007
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Difference in base year emissions
2005 vs. 2006
Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable
Development, 2007
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GHG by sectors in 2004
•fossil fuels
combustion
•domestic energy
sources as lignite and
hard coal
•Fuel switch and
increased EE.
•methane emissions
from agriculture and
waste sectors possible.
Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable
Development, 2007
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GHG PROJECTIONS
WEM and WAM projections for 2010
Base year
2010
emissions
projections
under the KP
WEM
Total GHG
emissions
(excluding
LULUCF)
2010
projections
WAM
278.2
190.9
180.0
Mt CO2-eq.
Mt CO2-eq.
Mt CO2-eq.
100 %
68.4%
64.7%
Source: European Environmental Agency, 2008
• 31.6 % and 35.3 % less then base year
www.rec.org
Projections for 2015 and 2020 based on
WAM
290
278.2
MtCO2-eq.
270
250
230
220.3
210
199.5
190
180.0
170
2000
Base
Year
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
Source: European Energy Agency, 2008
• Kyoto compliance even in 2020
• But GHG emissions further accelerating
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GIS in Romania
Why GIS in Romania?
• A strong decline in the GHG emissions and
has a possible big surplus in Romania
• Advantage of GIS:
• Optional instrument to secure the environmental benefits of
the sales of AAUs
• flexibility in project eligibility and approval
• flexibility in designing financial mechanisms for project
support.
www.rec.org
How much AAUs can be sold?
• AA2008-2012 = 1,299,349,047 tCO2-eq.
• Commitment Period Reserve (most recent
inventory bases)
5 x GHG emissions in 2004 = 800,298,657 tCO2-eq
• Remaining AAUs
1,299,349,047 - 800,298,657 = 499,050,390 tCO2-eq.
www.rec.org
Why to be careful with AAUs?
• Energy sector increase since 1999
• Increase in the investments since 2004 (EU
membership)
• global economic crisis is TEMPORARY
• Energy and agriculture sectors are projected to
increase GHG emission for the 2010-2020
• GHG emmission calculation models to be
improved
• Projection models to be improved
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Why to be careful with AAUs?
• New methodologies/models are implemented
• Projection calculations to be revised based on
new emission calculation & projection models
• Overselling the AAUs may jeopardize the
compliance with Kyoto targets
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Summary and Conclusion
• WEM will be enough for 2012 commitment
• Projected emissions for 2015 and 2020 will remain
still very much below the Kyoto target.
• A high potential of further GHG reduction
• High potential for GIS projects
• However, there is a potential of accelerated increase of
emissions
• Changes in the models and methodologies for
projections should be taken into account
• Compliance to Kyoto targets should be the priority
www.rec.org
Thank you
Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir
Climate Change Department
Regional Environmental Center for Central and
Eastern Europe
[email protected]
www.rec.org