Transcript Science questions

Science questions
• How will source-receptor relations change due to
expected changes in emissions?
• How should future emission scenarios be
constructed?
Global emissions of NOx
[million tons]
200.0
160.0
120.0
80.0
40.0
0.0
1990
2000
Europe
Asia + Oceania
Africa + Middle East
SRES A2 - World Total
2010
2020
2030
North America
Latin America
Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR)
SRES B2 - World Total
Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
Emission standards for gasoline vehicles
Current legislation
2000
2010
Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
Projections of global SO2, NOx, BC and OC
emissions
from anthropogenic sources, relative to 2000
140%
Business
as usual,
with recent
air quality
legislations
140%
120%
120%
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
1990
2000
2010
2020
SO2
2030
NOx
Maximum
technically
feasible
reductions
0%
1990
BC
2000
2010
2020
2030
OC
Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
Currently ongoing activities
• China (Hao Jiming)
• EDGAR (John van Ardenne)
• GEIA (Claire Granier)
• EMEP (Kristin Rypdal)
Emissions Inventories
Emission = Activity level x Emission Factor
Type of Sources and Pollutants, for a base year

Coal combustion: SO2, NOx, CO, Hg, PM

Biomass burning: black carbon

Emissions from transportation sector: VOC, NO, PM

Industrial processes: Hg from nonferrous metal smelting and
cement production

Other sources of VOCs

a guideline for developing emission inventory
Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)
Emission sources:
QAUNTIFY
Eyring
- Biofuel/fossil fuel production/combustion
- Industrial processes
- Agriculture
- Waste
vd Werf
- Biomass burning
Hoelzemann
1890
1990
Compounds:
- CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases
- NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, NH3
- BC/OC
Bond
1995 2000
EDGAR/HYDE
EDGAR v3
EDGAR v2
EDGAR FT
EDGAR v4
[email protected]
GEIA
EDGAR + IIASA
EDGAR + POLES
20??
8
Issues in emission inventories
Activity data: biofuel use / biomass burning / statistics non-OECD
Emission factors: emission abatement
Grid maps (cm2 technical possible; data is often missing)
Temporal resolution (emission by month/week/day/hour)
Emission height (in which model layer is emitted?)
Compound speciation (NMVOC, aerosol)
Verification studies
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[email protected]
Emission inventories and this task force
1. Make use of existing work.
Do not define a new inventory but provide means for existing emissions
inventories (global/regional/country/city) to exchange knowledge and improve
insight.
2. Verification of existing inventories
- Global emissions budget: (inverse studies/satellite data)
- Spatial/temporal resolution (measurement campaigns/regional modeling)
- Emission factors/speciation (local measurements)
3. Science vs accountancy
- Scientific capacity building in emission inventory development
(exchange/training)
- Fund accountancy work such as data mining on activity data and grid map
construction for which often no scientific credits can be gained.
-1-3: How to deal with national (UNFCCC/EMEP-CORINAIR) emission
inventories do we aim at independent estimates?
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[email protected]
Emission inventories: a few issues
Claire GRANIER
Service d’Aeronomie / IPSL, Paris, France
Also at: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
and CIRES/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, USA
Development of international databases
Within:
 the GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity) project of IGBP
Co-chairs: A. Guenther (NCAR, Boulder, USA) and C. Granier
 the ACCENT (Atmospheric Composition Change) European Network
Version 2 of the GEIA database developed as part of ACCENT
http://www.accent-network.org
First (global) inventories of GEIA-2 will
be released ~ June, 15
 POET (1990-2000)
 RETRO (1960-2000)
Tools will be soon available:
 visualization
 comparisons
 regridding
 formats
A few issues
• Consistency between inventories:
 gaseous/aerosols and VOCs speciation
 spatial: local, regional and global
 More links between communities: national/international and
international projects (organize an international workshop?)
• Natural emissions
 from static inventories to interactive parameterizations/models
to take into account impact of meteorology, climate change and landuse change. Database of ancillary data under development within
GEIA and ACCENT (more participants welcome).
• Verification of emissions
 intercomparisons of inventories and input data (emission
factors, activity data, fire counts/area burned, etc.)
 Inverse modeling : is currently limited to a few species (CO,
NO2) at the global scale. Has started to be used for local/regional
emissions. Methods still under development, an intercomparison
could be organized.