Transcript Aerosol and climate related research at how come the CMM

Outlook
• M-cities in South
America
• Building inventories
• Inverse modeling
• Summary
Credit: C. Mayhew & R. Simmon (NASA/GSFC), NOAA/ NGDC,
DMSP Digital Archive
South American Megacities
> 75% of
South
Americans live
in M-cities!!
In most cities, environmental
policies are targeted at first
towards diminishing acute
health impacts
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Santiago, Chile
When the objectives
become more ambitious
(long-term impacts, more
expensive and less
obvious measures, etc.)
•Emissions have to be
more accurate and be
used in combination with
models
•Regional monitoring
networks are needed
•Traffic emissions and
planning become foci
2+2=4, right?
• SA M-cities concentrate
population, environmental
problems and resources
• M-cities are global change
drivers
• This issue can merge efforts
and strenghten the region
UMESAM-Objectives
• To establish an international
network of scientists able to
connect local air quality initiatives and global environmental
change research in South America.
• To provide a common and comparable methodology
that combines bottom-up and top-down inventory building techniques and
that can be readily applied in South American cities for estimating, as a first
and triggering step, emission
•
inventories for mobile
sources.
To reduce the uncertainties in emissions
inventories of several major pollutants, including CO, NOx,
particulate matter and GHGs, at both continental and urban scales,
instrumental to air quality and climate modeling.
Atmospheric science
Appl. Mathematics
Computer Science
Mechanical &
Chemical Engineering
+6 students
Started March 29 2004
UMESAM ACTIVITIES
• Measurent of
vehicular activity and
CO emission estimates
in Lima, Sao Paulo,
Santiago, Bogotá
• Direct and inverse
simulations at various
scales using CO
observations as
constrain
•Collaboration Network
•Methodology
•New inventories for mobile sources
•Inventory Optimization
•Training
Building inventories for mobile sources
•vehicle type
•driving
behavior
•local
conditions
Good statistics, traffic modeling and local
emission factors, i.e., EXPENSIVE
E.g., Santiago’s and Sao Paulo’s already have
Inventories!
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CO
HC
NOx
Light Duty vehicles
Heavy Duty vehicles
Particles Resuspension Secondary aerosols
SO2
Industrial emissions
IP
International Vehicle Emission Model (IVE)
1.Choose representative streets
2.Determine fractions of vehicle technology classes
(video taping, parking lots survey)
3.Identify main driving patterns (GPS)
4.Determine start patterns
IVE: Unexpensive, Fast, Comparable
14
Emission Rate [gr/km]
12
Almaty
10
Lima
Los Angeles
8
Mexico
6
Nairobi
4
Pune
Santiago
2
+Bogotá
0
CO/10
VOC
NOx
PM*10
CO2/40
Inventories for Buenos Aires & Bogotá…ongoing!
Bogotá
Modeling at various scales
Global
Regional
Local
Pétron et al, Longo et al, Muñoz et al
Modeling
M
Lμ 


μ
 v.μ - .(K.μ)  λμ  f;
t
 BC ; IC
Ei, i=1,...n
Sj, j=1,...m
L*μ*  

μ 
 v.μ - .(K T .μ)  λμ  g;  CB*; CI *
t
t
M
$…
 mod
 obs 2
J (f)  μ (f)  μ
ε f
2
&
J
0
f
J1) Best Linear Unbiased Estimator
•It will be used to better estimate source strength
and time variation for Santiago’s and Sao Paulo’s
CO inventories
J2) Adjoint
2
N
J 
μi (f)  μi
mod
i1
N
Lμ g 
* *
i1
ε f
obs
1 *
μi (fo ) - μi  f  μ
ε
mod
obs
Improve inventories….optimal monitoring network
design
S…UMESAM is a pilot network project functional for
better understanding (science) and management both at
local (city-by-city) and regional/continental scales
•Common methodologies for
building and evaluating
emission inventories
•Optimization of available
inventories for Santiago and
Sao Paulo
•New inventories for Buenos
Aires, Bogotá & Lima
•A NETWORK IS AT
WORK!!